Phillies vs. Braves NL Wild-Card Game 2 picks: Can Philadelphia rebound from gut-punch opening defeat?

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The Phillies turn to ace Cristopher Sanchez today in Game 2 in Atlanta to save their season

Sep 30, 2026 at 8:53 am ET • 5 min read

We have the same Wild-Card playoff schedule for Game 2s around the majors Wednesday as we did Tuesday, which means the first of the quartet is Phillies at Braves with a 2 p.m. ET first pitch from Truist Park. Philadelphia's season is on the line after a crushing opening loss, but the Phils have their ace on the hill in lefty Cristopher Sanchez. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

It will be another lovely sunny afternoon in Atlanta, with winds blowing out at 7 mph. There are almost dead-even handle and betting splits on the two close money lines at DraftKings but heavy action on the Phillies -1.5 at +157. On the total of 7, 68% of handle and 83% of bets are on the Over.

A possible winner-take-all Game 3 is scheduled at the same time Thursday, but know this: Philadelphia has never won a postseason series after losing Game 1, going 0-8 in those situations. That shocked me, honestly. It lost Game 1 of the 2025 NLDS to the Dodgers and the opener of the 2024 NLDS to the Mets and fell in four games in both series.

By comparison, Atlanta is 18-4 all-time in series when winning the opener and has won the past four – although not since the 2021 World Series. In this format, the team that wins Game 1 is 15-1 in terms of winning the series. 

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Phillies vs. Braves MLB same-game parlay

• Atlanta +1.5
• Race to 6 runs: Neither 

FanDuel SGP price: +119 (subject to change)

What a great Game 1, with the Braves winning 5-3 on a two-out, three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth by Austin Riley, who had a disappointing season. Perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised, as no team scored more runs from the eighth inning on than Atlanta this season. Riley's heroics came after the Phillies took a 3-2 edge on an incredibly unlikely two-RBI triple by catcher JT Realmuto. How unlikely? He had no triples this season and became the first No. 9 hitter in postseason history with a go-ahead triple in the seventh inning or later.

There apparently was no major thought to starting Sanchez (18-7, 2.91 ERA) on three days' rest Tuesday in what would have been a spectacular matchup of southpaws against Chris Sale – Sanchez probably finishes second in this year's Cy Young voting behind Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski and Sale third.

Sanchez led the NL with 18 wins, tied for the league lead with 22 quality starts, was second in innings pitched (207.0), second in strikeouts (231) and sixth in ERA. There are some sites out there that rank Sanchez as the No. 1 pitcher in the majors in WAR during the season; Baseball Reference has him at 8.1, behind only Cubs superstar outfielder and likely unanimous NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstong (9.8).

The 29-year-old Sanchez was a fair bit worse away during the season at 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA and .288 opponents' batting average -- compared to 12-3 with a 2.23 ERA and .230 OBA at home. He somehow avoided pitching in Atlanta this year and went 0-2 with a 2.25 ERA and .260 OBA in two home starts vs. the Braves. He has never beaten the ATL in nine appearances (0-5 with a 3.26 ERA).

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Sanchez at 6.4 innings, 6.4 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs today. He has yet to get a decision in four career playoff starts, despite a very good 2.79 ERA in 19.1 innings. Both of his 2025 playoff outings ended up being team losses to the Dodgers. As good as Sanchez is, a few Braves have good career regular-season splits off him. Riley is 7-for-15 with a homer, Ozzie Albies 9-for-18 with three doubles, and Ronald Acuna Jr. 6-for-16 with a double and homer. 

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Another gut-punch for the Phillies from Tuesday is that closer Jhoan Duran threw two innings – he gave up Riley's homer and came in unusually early in the seventh. That means he might not be available here, and certainly not for long if so. Manager Don Mattingly is taking a ton of heat for using Duran so early in the game.

Atlanta's trade-deadline acquisition of Tyler Mahle for a relief pitcher didn't generate much national buzz considering the veteran righty was 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts with the Giants before the deal. But some guys just get energized going from a bad team to a good one, and clearly that's the case with Mahle.

In nine starts with Atlanta, he has been arguably better than Sale at 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 54.1 innings. Mahle faced the Phillies four times this season, two pretty early on with San Francisco and two in September with Atlanta. All were very good, except his April 28 outing in Philly, when Mahle was hit around for five runs in five innings of a loss. But he's a major "home" guy, going a combined 5-3 with a 2.74 ERA in 13 home starts with both clubs, compared to 2-7 with a 5.28 ERA away.

The model forecasts Mahle at 5.5 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.1 earned today, and the journeyman (his fifth team) will be making his playoff debut at age 32. That's pretty cool for him. 

The three main Phillies hitters have each had moderate career success against Mahle in Bryce Harper (5-for-18, double, HR), Kyle Schwarber (6-for-25, two HR, nine BB) and Trea Turner (10-for-25, double).

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It didn't look good for this Game 1 parlay with those two outs in the bottom of the eighth, but we cashed at +124. I don't believe the Braves should be underdogs, so am saving some money because I probably would have flipped them to +1.5 anyway for insurance. Most playoff games end via one-run margin, even if that wasn't the case Tuesday. The model's final score is basically a draw. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.