NFL Week 10 picks and score predictions: Lions run over Patriots in Germany, Bengals survive

I just got back from the NFL game in Spain, and I think I should probably start going more often, since Week 10 ended up being my best week of the year for picks. 

I went 14-1 straight-up, and yes, I should probably just retire at this point, but I don't want to retire while I'm on top; I want to retire when I hit rock bottom, which might actually happen this week. Speaking of rock bottom, I went to McDonald's four times while I was in Spain, and let me just say, I only went there because Madrid had the nicest McDonald's I've ever seen. I mean, just look at this place. 

There were also people tailgating inside of a Taco Bell. 

If you need just one reason to ever visit Spain, tailgating at Taco Bell has to be it. Unfortunately, there's no game in Spain this week, so there will be no tailgating at Taco Bell, but there is a game in Germany, and it will be the final NFL game of this year that kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET, which is definitely for the best, because I've reached my maximum limit for 9:30 a.m. ET games. 

The Patriots and Lions will be playing in the early game on Sunday. So who's going to win? Let's get to the Week 10 picks and find out. 

Actually, before we get to the Week 10 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and if you want me invading your inbox twice a week, then you should definitely sign up. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. If you do that, it will instantly make us best friends and you don't even have to feel bad about that because I've already let all my best friends know that they might be replaced this week. 

Alright, now let's get to the picks for real

NFL Week 10 picks

Commanders (2-5-1) at Giants (5-2-1)

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Based on everything I've seen from the Commanders, I already know exactly how this game is going to play out: Washington is going to keep this thing close until the end only to lose (or tie) because no one in the organization has any idea what to do in any key late-game situation. 

For instance, let's go back to Week 5 when the Commanders pulled off one of the all-time worst late-game gaffes in a tie with the Giants. Washington had the game won. All Jayden Daniels had to do was literally anything except what he actually did. 

Look at the Giants players in that clip. They're celebrating. When the other team is CELEBRATING a tie, that means you lost. 

Surely Daniels and the Commanders learned their lesson, right? Wrong. In their Week 9 game against the Rams, they needed a 32-yard touchdown on the final play, but instead of throwing it in the end zone, Daniels threw the ball five yards past the line of scrimmage because the Commanders apparently thought they were going to be able to lateral the ball to each other all the way into the end zone. That's a reason that never works. 

Now, you could blame Daniels for this stuff, but ultimately, it falls on the coaching staff. In the Rams' game, Daniels said he was just running the play that was called. In the Giants' game, someone on the coaching staff should have made it clear to everyone on the field that the clock has to come to a stop on that play, whether it's a spike or a player running out of bounds. 

So what does this mean for this game? It means that the Commanders are actually playing decent football and if their coaching staff doesn't let them down, I think they have a good chance of winning. The Giants are beat up at quarterback, they're beat up at running back, and they're surviving by the skin of their teeth. Four of their five wins have come by one score. Good teams win close games. 

To me, this is arguably the most fascinating game of Week 10. If the Commanders lose, their season is all but over, but if they win, they'll be right back in the NFC East race. I feel like this is a pick I'm going to regret as soon as I make it, but I'm taking the desperate Commanders. 

PICK: Commanders 24-17 over Giants

Patriots (5-4) vs. Lions (6-2) in Munich

• Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)

With this game being played in Munich, I feel like this would be the perfect time to answer the one question that has been on all of our minds over the past few months: Who would win a beer-chugging contest between Mike Vrabel and Dan Campbell?

With these two guys heading to the beer capital of the world, there's no reason not to find out. And to be honest, based on how the Patriots have been playing recently, Vrabel could probably use a few beers right about now. I'm not in charge of scheduling events for the NFL in Germany this week, which is probably for the best, but if I were, I would rent out the Hofbrauhaus and then give both Campbell and Vrabel one full stein of beer. Instead of a coin toss on Sunday, this is how we would decide who's getting the ball first. 

I was at the Hofbrauhaus once and it took me an hour to finish my beer. The Germans were definitely laughing at me. 

The Germans might be laughing at the Patriots, too, if they can't turn things around this week. Vrabel is known as one of the smartest defensive-minded coaches in the NFL, but he hasn't figured out how to stop any NFC North teams. The Patriots have faced two NFC North teams this year and not only have they gone 0-2, but they're surrendering an average of 37.5 points per game. Yikes. 

The NFC North is so good that I might not pick against any of their teams for the rest of the season unless they're playing another NFC North team. If you've looked at the NFL standings at any point over the past 24 hours, you may have noticed that the NFC North is arguably the best all-around division in the NFL this year and possibly ever. 

All four teams are at least three games over .500, which is the first time that's ever happened through the first nine weeks. Oh, and did I mention that the NFC North is 20-4 against all other divisions. They are destroying everyone. On the other hand, you have the Patriots, who are 3-1 against AFC East opponents, but 2-3 against everyone else. The Patriots have had one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL over the past several weeks, and now, they have to face off against a QB in Jared Goff who ranks in the top five in passing yards per game this year. 

The Lions might put up 50 points. The good news for the Patriots is that even if the Lions do put up a 50-burger, New England might still keep up. Detroit has given up the MOST passing yards per game this year (260.9), so Drake Maye could certainly get some turkey carving practice for Thanksgiving here by carving up the Lions' defense. That being said, I've decided not to trust Maye against good teams. 

The Patriots have faced six opponents this year with winning records, and in those games, Maye has thrown 11 interceptions to 9 touchdowns. Based on how I think this game is going to go, Vrabel might need a Hofbrauhaus beer after it's over. 

PICK: Lions 34-27 over Patriots

Texans (3-5) at Browns (Browns 5-4)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Deshaun Watson did not play in Week 9 for the Browns, but there's no chance he's going to miss this game. This is the ultimate revenge, though, I can't say for sure whether this is more about the Texans trying to get revenge on him or he's trying to get revenge on the Texans. Actually, now that I'm thinking about it, there might not be any revenge involved at all here. 

Since trading Watson to the Browns in March 2022, the Texans have made the playoffs three times, and they've won their division twice. On the other hand, Watson has been injured for the majority of his time in Cleveland; he's won just 14 games since 2022, and the Browns have paid him roughly $14.5 million per win. If Tom Brady had earned $14.5 million per win, he would have made over $3 billion in his career. Do you know how many Hofbrauhaus beers you could buy with that money?

The worst part for the Browns is that they're still in QB purgatory, which is basically where they've been since returning to the NFL in 1999. Although Watson is playing well this year, especially late in games, I'm not sure that's a good thing. If he somehow leads Cleveland to the playoffs, the Browns might actually talk themselves into re-signing him, which doesn't seem like a great idea. 

Anyway, this genuinely does feel like a game that's going to boil down to Watson vs. the Texans. Watson has been sacked more times than any other QB in the NFL this year (33), and he'll be facing a defense that leads the NFL in sacks (29). That's a recipe for disaster. There have only been three games all season where a QB has been sacked at least eight times: Two of them were Deshaun Watson (vs. Jets in Week 5 and vs. Steelers in Week 8) and the other one happened on Sunday with the Texans sacking Justin Herbert eight times. 

Watson might get sacked 10 times in this game. 

PICK: Texans 24-16 over Browns

Vikings (6-2) at Packers (6-3)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

When I look back at the scores from Week 1, the most shocking result might have been the Vikings' 39-22 win over the Packers. One reason it was shocking is that I'm not even sure the Vikings have scored 39 points since that game. The other reason it was shocking is that the Packers became the first team in 12 years to lose by at least 17 in a game where they held a double-digit lead in the second half. 

If there are two things I'm convinced about in this game, it's that the Vikings are NOT going to score 39 points (or even half that number) and the Packers are not going to blow a double-digit lead (and that's mainly because I don't think they'll have a double-digit lead). 

This matchup will be giving us strength vs. strength: The Vikings have the NFL's top passing defense and they're going to have to figure out how to slow down Jordan Love, who leads the NFC in passing yards per game (290.9). Love is on quite on the hot streak right now: He's thrown for at least 270 yards in five straight games, which is something that not even Brett Favre ever accomplished. That's right, the young gunslinger is out-slinging the Ol' gunslinger. 

Love has been hot because he has two receivers he completely trusts: Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Those two BOTH went over 150 yards in Week 9 and they both had a touchdown. Do you know how many Packers' receiving duos have hit those numbers in the same game over the past 80 years? ZERO. Golden and Watson were the first ones. 

One downside for the Packers in this game is that they won't have Josh Jacobs, but that might not actually be a downside, since they didn't have him in Week 1 and Love still threw for nearly 400 yards. 

The Vikings started 6-0, but they're now in the reality check portion of their schedule: They're coming off back-to-back losses (Lions, Bills) and with the Packers and 49ers coming up, that losing streak could be at four in a row before Thanksgiving. 

PICK: Packers 20-17 over Vikings

Steelers (6-2) at Bengals (6-2)

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

After spending nearly an entire week in Spain, the Bengals are back in the United States, and this time, they have to face their toughest opponent of the year: The NFL scheduling department. 

For Sunday, the NFL scheduling department has put the Bengals in a situation no team has ever won. 

The Bengals will enter Week 10 after playing in Madrid, and they face a Steelers team coming off a bye. This will mark just the sixth time in NFL history that a team coming off an international game has had to play a team coming off a bye, and uh, I have some bad news for everyone in Cincinnati: The team coming off the international game has gone 0-5 (and 0-4-1 against the spread). Also, NFL teams are a combined 13-1 coming off their bye this year. 

And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the Bengals, I have more bad news: The team coming off the international trip has averaged just 15 points per game, and the ugly part is that they've been outscored 83-37 over the first three quarters in those five games. I feel like the Bengals should file a protest with Roger Goodell. I'm not sure that would actually do anything, but maybe it would guilt the NFL into never doing this to another team ever again. Oh wait, it's too late for that because the Lions will be in the same situation next week. 

The problem with this situation is that the team returning from Europe usually needs a brief adjustment period. The jet lag after the flight back to the United States usually lasts a day or two, which means it can impact practice for your next game.

These two teams met back in Week 3 and the Steelers won because they exploited two weaknesses in the Bengals defense: Cincinnati struggles to stop the run (Jaylen Warren went off for 127 yards) and the Bengals struggle to cover tight ends (Steelers tight ends combined to make five catches for 97 yards). Overall, the Steelers offense simply played its best game of the season. They finished with 411 yards. They have not topped 365 in any other game.

I have a hard time seeing that happen again. If anyone can end this 0-5 international curse, it's Joe Burrow. He's playing quarterback at a higher level than anyone right now, and he's going to be out for revenge. Not only are the Bengals playing at home in primetime, but they're wearing their white tiger helmets, and I'm not picking against the white tiger helmets. 

PICK: Bengals 27-24 over Steelers

NFL 10 picks: All the rest

Chiefs 27-20 over Falcons
Jaguars 31-16 over Titans
Colts 19-16 over Dolphins
Panthers 23-20 over Saints
Bills 30-20 over Jets
Seahawks 27-17 over Raiders
Rams 23-16 over Cardinals
49ers 31-24 over Cowboys
Ravens 20-16 over Chargers

Last Week

Best pick: Bengals over Falcons. Last week, I predicted that the Bengals would score exactly 34 points and win the game in Spain and guess what happened? The Bengals scored exactly 34 points and won the game in Spain. When the Bengals left for Madrid last week, Joe Burrow wore a Pikachu hoodie on the flight over, and there's no way you're letting yourself be photographed in a Pikachu hoodie unless you're 100% sure that your team is going to win. As soon as I saw that photo, I was 100% sure the Bengals were going to win. 

The twist here is that Pikachu isn't even Burrow's favorite Pokémon, and the only reason I know that is that someone actually asked him that exact question on Sunday. 

That's why we need more games played abroad. The international reporters aren't afraid to ask the hard-hitting questions. 

Worst pick: Browns over Saints. I only missed one pick last week -- THIS ONE -- so I have to put this game here even though I don't even think it was a bad pick. There were at least five different occasions where I thought the Browns were going to win this, but this is the Browns we're talking about, so they eventually found a way to blow it. The one thing I didn't take into account is that the Browns' defense seems to be getting worse every week. 

At the rate things are going, the Browns are going to give up 700 yards to the Colts in Week 17. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information every week from now through the end of the season. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Team: I'm 8-1 picking this year (Straight up): Patriots, Eagles, Jaguars (7-1), Dolphins (7-1), Commanders (6-1-1)
My worst teams this year (Straight up): Bears (3-6), Buccaneers (3-6), Browns (3-6)

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks record

• Straight up in Week 9: 14-1
• SU overall: 82-53-1
• Against the spread in Week 9: 11-4
• ATS overall: 63-70-3
  
• BREECHIGAMIS: 1

You can find John Breech on Facebook, TikTok or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably trying to round up some friends to see if they want to tailgate at the Taco Bell by his house this weekend.