College football odds, predictions: USC vs. Indiana, Texas vs. LSU headline a strong Week 11

With this being the last ride for conference championship games, Week 11's college football slate will make the race to get there worth watching. 

There are seismic matchups in every Power Four league this weekend, and the fallout could reach beyond the league standings with the College Football Playoff picture continuing to take shape. Multi-loss teams needing to win out, along with favorites hoping to remain out front, spike the conversation, with heavy stakes surrounding USC-Indiana, Wake Forest-SMU and Texas-LSU, among others.

These picks have been tricky all season, but most of the lines are even tighter this week.

Season results: Brad Crawford (59-31 straight up, 42-47-1 ATS); Chris Hummer (64-26 straight up, 46–43-1 ATS)

Not throwing in the towel yet this season, but man, I'm frustrated. Last week's all-time weekend of games generated a nauseating 3-6 finish ATS while Hummer strengthened his lead at 5-4 entering Week 11. Alabama's win over LSU was special for the Crimson Tide, who hadn't been all that convincing recently despite early love from the CFP selection committee. And I never saw Oregon's destruction of Ohio State coming -- neither of us did.

No. 13 Wake Forest (-1.5) at SMU

Hummer (Wake Forest -1.5): This game is going to come down to which defense. These are two top 10 passing offenses in the FBS, averaging more than 300 yards per game each. It's how the two teams win. The big advantage for the Demon Deacons is their run defense. 

They're top 10 nationally in that category and should be able to generally mitigate a very up-and-down SMU rushing attack. 

The Wake Forest secondary can be an occasional liability. But the Demon Deacons have the advantage of basically coming off a bye (Merrimack). I like them to go on the road and make a statement. … Wake Forest 38, SMU 34.

Crawford (Wake Forest -1.5): The Demon Deacons are just obliterating teams in the ACC this season since that early-September loss to Miami. Jake Dickert's proving a point, and his comments associated with the end of league championship weekend were quite revealing -- he wants to win a conference title and must go through Dallas to do it. 

By winning out, Wake Forest will get its rematch with Miami. I think it's going to happen as long as the Demon Deacons can get a couple stops this weekend. ... Wake Forest 41, SMU 31.

Duke at No. 7 Miami (-13.5)

Hummer (Miami -13.5): There's a lot of interconnectivity in this game. Not only was Manny Diaz the one-time head coach of the Hurricanes, but Miami's star quarterback (Darian Mensah) and wide receiver (Cooper Barkate) both came from Duke this offseason in somewhat controversial fashion. 

It could be difficult for Miami to get up for this game a week after Notre Dame. But considering the loss and the ties between the two schools, I expect Miami to be all in. 

Duke plays slow and controls the pace of games with an excellent defense and a strong run game. But Miami is the nation's best rushing defense, and the Hurricanes have the firepower to separate down the stretch. … Miami 31, Duke 17.

Crawford (Miami -13.5): I haven't downgraded the Hurricanes as a national championship contender, nor should you this season. As long as Malachi Toney returns for the ACC Championship in a couple of weeks, this team will be fine. 

He's such a huge part of Shannon Dawson's offense that it simply was going to take several series to figure out last week at Notre Dame and when Miami did, the offense produced. 

Miami's rush defense is one of the best in the country, and they're going up against the potential Doak Walker winner in Nate Sheppard. Be careful in this spot. ... Miami 30, Duke 14.

Northwestern at No. 20 Ohio State (-10.5)

Hummer (Ohio State -10.5): There's been a lot of noise around Ohio State this week. Those are fair critiques, and the Wildcats are a very dangerous team if Aidan Chiles is healthy. But I just expect the Buckeyes to respond. 

The Wildcats have struggled defensively this season, especially against the run, and that could open things up for Ohio State's offense even with a freshman QB. 

And as good as Chip Kelly is as a playcaller, this is by far the best defense the Wildcats have seen since Indiana. Give me the Buckeyes to cover. … Ohio State 31, Northwestern 20.

Crawford (Ohio State -10.5): Picking the Buckeyes to cover for a third straight week is worrying, especially when the last two plays haven't cashed. What has happened to this team under Ryan Day? 

Much of the finger-pointing should go to the defense, because there's an inherent built-in excuse when you lose your starting -- Heisman-caliber -- quarterback. Northwestern is a solid team and could certainly keep this under the number, but against my better judgment, I'll take Ohio State again. ... Ohio State 28, Northwestern 13.

No. 8 Tennessee (-2.5) at Texas A&M

Hummer (Tennessee -2.5): How is Texas A&M going to score against Tennessee? 

That's my big question going into this game. The Vols have a top 20 defense and one of the truly elite defensive fronts (4th nationally in pressure rate) in the sport. That's a huge problem for an Aggies front that's struggled at times this season and a quarterback in Marcel Reed who's struggled with consistency. 

Texas A&M's offense did look a bit better last week. It just failed to convert in the red zone. Maybe the Aggies find their stride. But I'd bet on the better, more consistent team. … Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 20.

Crawford (Tennessee -2.5): This line's begging me to take the Aggies, but I do wonder where this team's head is at with four wins in nine games, needing two more just to reach bowl eligibility. 

Expect another low-scoring slugfest, determined by which team converts red-zone possessions into touchdowns. 

Texas A&M failed to do it at South Carolina and now takes on a higher-ranked opponent who had just lost to the Gamecocks before shellacking Kentucky. Vols win a close one, and Mike Elko fails to get Texas A&M to bowl season. Yikes. ... Tennessee 23, Texas A&M 20.

Michigan at No. 16 Oregon (-10.5)

Hummer (Michigan +10.5): Can Michigan score? That's the big question entering this one. 

The Wolverines have only scored more than 21 points once this season against Power Four competition (Rutgers). Could that change after the firing of OC Jason Beck? 

It could. 

The same thing seemed to have worked for Oregon after firing Drew Mehringer, as the Ducks have averaged 37.5 points since the change. I don't see Michigan winning this game. But one thing I can count on with the Wolverines is their defense. That unit has kept them in every game this season. It does so again in Eugene. … Oregon 24, Michigan 17.

Crawford (Oregon -10.5): Michigan's a mess right now, and Kyle Whittingham's comments about Oregon's NIL-infused roster are going to spike this one pre-game inside the Ducks' locker room.

You just know Dan Lanning is going to super-size that soundbite. These are two teams trending in completely opposite directions, so the pick is to go with the squad with something to play for at Autzen Stadium. 

Oregon keeps pace in the CFP at-large discussion and pummels the Wolverines.  ... Oregon 27, Michigan 16.

No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana (-7.5)

Hummer (Indiana -7.5): Both teams are coming off a bye and headed down the home stretch. This is yet another test for the Trojans in the ET time zone, a problem for Lincoln Riley since he arrived in Los Angeles. 

The Hoosiers are the nation's top-ranked defense and should be able to slow USC's passing attack. The question then becomes if a week off for Josh Hoover, who's dealt with a shoulder injury, can spark a struggling Indiana offense, which hasn't cleared the 20-point barrier in regulation since Oct. 3. 

The Trojans' defense, which ranks 88th nationally, is often a salve for opposing offenses. … Indiana 28, USC 20.

Crawford (USC +7.5): College football's game-of-the-week in my eyes; I love the resiliency USC has shown this season. From losing to Oregon at home to clubbing Ohio State in the same situation, credit Lincoln Riley for getting the Trojans ready to play. 

Now at 7-2 overall, every goal is still ahead of USC coming down the stretch. Indiana has won so many close games, including a pair in overtime, and this one might go to an extra session, too. ... Indiana 27, USC 23.

No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-15.5)

Hummer (Missouri +15.5): I'd pick Georgia over anyone right now. The Bulldogs are playing that well. But that's a big line against a Missouri team that's playing really good football. 

The Tigers are going to score with Austin Simmons under center, and their defense is still a top 30 unit nationally. Georgia wins, but Missouri keeps it close enough. … Georgia 34, Missouri 21.

Crawford (Missouri +15.5): If the Georgia team that clapped Ole Miss shows up the rest of the season, Kirby Smart is going to win his third national championship. 

The Bulldogs were ferocious on the road and will have to do it again next week at a hostile South Carolina. However, this one can't be overlooked. 

The transitive property would suggest another blowout considering Ole Miss trounced Missouri by 28 points previously, but I'm going with a late touchdown spoiling Georgia's cover. ... Georgia 27, Missouri 17.

Florida at No. 11 Kentucky (-3.5)

Hummer (Kentucky -3.5): The Gators' offense was the storyline of college football through four weeks. It's largely collapsed, averaging a total of 7.5 points over the last two weeks. 

The good news is Florida gets to play Kentucky (61st nationally in yards allowed per play) instead of Georgia or Oklahoma, but it will still be a challenge. 

The Wildcats have a big advantage in this game with their offensive front. I expect them to run the ball well against Florida and make the plays late when it matters. … Kentucky 21, Florida 17.

Crawford (Kentucky -3.5): Our analytics model at CBS Sports suggests the Wildcats have a mere 11% chance to reach the CFP after last week's loss at Tennessee. 

However, I'm projecting the Wildcats to win out and get there with a 10-2 record. Nine wins isn't going to cut it when you consider Kentucky's resume, so Saturday's game against the Gators is a must-win. ... Kentucky 27, Florida 20.

No. 2 Utah (-2.5) at No. 23 Arizona

Hummer (Utah -2.5): This is by far the toughest remaining game on Utah's schedule. The Wildcats are one of the top-scoring offenses in college football, and they're quietly a top-30 defense in terms of yards per play as well. 

What works in Utah's favor is excellent secondary play. 

The Utes are fifth nationally in opposing passer rating, and they should at least be able to slow Noah Fifita and Arizona's offense. Utah keeps its perfect season rolling for another week. … Utah 27, Arizona 24.

Crawford (Utah -2.5): I've already penciled in Utah at12-0 entering conference championship weekend. The Utes have appeared flawless, sans a couple of possessions last week against BYU. Motivated by the allure of a first-round, the Utes will keep it going against the Wildcats. 

Hummer's right -- it's the toughest game left for the Utes and the only matchup standing between them and a potential unbeaten regular season. ... Utah 35, Arizona 31.

No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU (-3.5)

Hummer (LSU -3.5): This is going to be a challenge for Texas. The Longhorn offensive line is banged up, and it's struggled to pass protect (94th nationally in pressure rate allowed in passing situations) while the Tigers have one of the best pass rush units in the FBS. 

Arch Manning will have to play clean and on time to help mitigate that advantage. Working in Texas' favor is one of the nation's best overall defenses, which will need to step up in the red zone where LSU has struggled this season. 

The Longhorns have played better of late. But Baton Rouge is arguably the toughest place to win in college football. LSU gets a win it desperately needs. … LSU 27, Texas 21.

Crawford (LSU -3.5): Zero wins against ranked teams, and we're still talking about CFP hypotheticals for the Tigers with three games to play. 

Lane Kiffin hasn't figured it out yet against quality opponents, but perhaps that happens for the first time Saturday night against the Longhorns. Texas holds four ranked wins and doesn't need this one to reach the CFP as an at-large selection. With their backs against the wall, the Tigers get it done despite Sam Leavitt not playing turnover-free. ... LSU 30, Texas 24.

No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State (-3.5)

Hummer (Texas Tech +3.5): Given what we saw from Texas Tech's defense this week, this game could be yet another old-fashioned Big 12 shootout. 

The Cowboys have arguably the best quarterback in college football and the Big 12's top offense. Texas Tech, for its part, seems to have found its offensive rhythm with Thomas Castellanos under center. 

The big problem for both of these teams is slowing down the opposing pass game. But I do think the Red Raiders are the better defensive front seven. That makes the difference as Texas Tech ekes out a victory. … Texas Tech 35, Oklahoma State 34.

Crawford (Oklahoma State -3.5): I'm not surprised the Cowboys are favored here. The numbers from Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins are impressive and after West Virginia's success last week against this Texas Tech defense, more fireworks are coming. 

Not only does Oklahoma State win, but the Cowboys cover and thwart Texas Tech's shot at getting back to the CFP. ... Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 35.