City Hall maps 20,000 households at risk as Nairobi braces for El Niño rains

What you need to know:

• The worst-case scenario would leave about 100,000 residents requiring evacuation, shelter and post-disaster support.
• Nairobi governor Johnson Sakaja has directed teams to facilitate the movement of residents living in high-risk sections.

Nairobi has identified four major flood corridors where up to 20,000 households could be affected by the expected El Niño rains, with the county government preparing to evacuate residents and pre-position emergency equipment before the rains reach their peak.

The worst-case scenario would leave about 100,000 residents requiring evacuation, shelter and post-disaster support, according to the county’s disaster management team, which on Thursday activated a multi-agency emergency command centre to test Nairobi’s preparedness.

On Thursday, Nairobi governor Johnson Sakaja brought together county and national agencies at Charter Hall for Operation Okoa Maisha, a simulation exercise intended to test how quickly the city can detect, communicate and respond to flooding and other emergencies.

The county has identified the Dagoretti-Kawangware belt, Nairobi Dam-Kibera corridor, Mukuru Industrial Area corridor and the Northern and Eastern corridor stretching through Mathare, Umoja, Dandora and Ruai as the main areas of concern.

Mr Bramwel Simiyu, the Chief Officer for Disaster Coordination, said the county had developed a phased response plan that would see emergency assets moved closer to vulnerable areas before a critical weather event.

“Six hours to that critical hour, we'll pre-position all these assets in those different areas to improve our response and ensure no lives are lost,” Mr Simiyu said.

Two hours before the anticipated critical point, evacuation operations would begin for people considered most vulnerable, including children in schools and residents living in areas designated as high-risk, he said.

The county is working with the National Disaster Operations Centre, Kenya Red Cross, Kenya Defence Forces, Kenya Coast Guard and other response agencies under a “One County, One Plan, One Command” framework.

The simulation is designed to test whether the agencies can communicate and deploy resources without the delays that have complicated emergency responses in the past.

“What you are testing today are the different agencies, how do they communicate. So you are testing our communication tools, you are testing our response protocols to ensure that we do not have any of those challenges that we registered in the past,” Mr Simiyu said.

The scale of the preparedness plan varies according to the severity of the rains.

Under the county's mid-case scenario, about 5,000 households, representing between 20,000 and 25,000 residents, would require shelter and post-disaster support.

The worst-case scenario, however, puts the number at 20,000 households, or about 100,000 people. The exercise comes as Nairobi intensifies efforts to clear drainage systems, desilt waterways and remove obstructions from flood-prone areas ahead of the October-December rainy season.

Mr Sakaja said the county could not wait for the rains to arrive before beginning its response.

“We cannot wait for the rains to come and then start responding. We must prepare in advance, identify the risks, clear our drainage systems and make sure our teams are ready to respond when called upon,” he said.

The governor has also directed teams to facilitate the movement of residents living in high-risk sections along the Mathare, Ngong and Nairobi rivers to safer areas.

“Occupying riparian land is non-negotiable. You must move. We do not want you to die,” Mr Sakaja said.

The county has established emergency communication channels, including toll-free numbers 1508 and 1199, which officials said residents can use over the next four months to report flooding, accidents and other emergencies.

Mr Simiyu said the exercise was not simply about preparing for one weather event, but about creating a system capable of handling emergencies throughout the rainy period.

“We are not preparing for an event. We are preparing to set up a system that will stand the test of time over the next four months,” he said.

The county has also brought officials from neighbouring Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado into the exercise, reflecting the possibility that flooding and other emergencies will cross administrative boundaries.

Mr Simiyu said the neighbouring counties would need to maintain direct communication with Nairobi as agencies respond to incidents that affect more than one county.

The warning comes as the Kenya Meteorological Department says the onset of the October-December rains in Nairobi is expected between the second and third weeks of October, with the country bracing for above-normal rainfall. The Met has warned of prolonged wet spells and occasional heavy storms during the season.

Kenya Red Cross has said the coming El Niño rains could trigger a higher level of displacement than the country witnessed during the 2023-2024 floods.

Mr Anthony Muchiri, the Emergency Operations Manager at the Red Cross, said more than 121,000 families were displaced during the previous rains, while current projections point to more than 130,000 people being displaced.

He said more than 490 people died during the 2023-2024 rains, many of whom could have been prevented if residents heeded warnings to avoid flooded roads, bridges and fast-moving water.

“Whenever you see areas that were not previously flooded and there's flowing water, just avoid crossing on them,” he said.

The Red Cross will work with the Communications Authority of Kenya and Safaricom to send targeted alerts to residents in affected areas as the rains intensify.

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