El Niño could drive up food prices and inflation – Government Statistician
Government Statistician Dr Alhassan Iddrisu warned that Ghana could face fresh inflationary pressures from an anticipated severe El Niño event, which threatens to disrupt agricultural production, electricity generation, and international supply chains.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its effects can influence rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.
The climate phenomenon could push up food prices, increase business operating costs and worsen the financial pressures households face, particularly if changing weather conditions affect agricultural output and water resources.
The warning comes after Ghana's October 2026 inflation rate rose to 5.5 per cent, with Dr Iddrisu urging policymakers to factor weather forecasts into economic planning and take early measures to protect the economy against possible disruptions.
He emphasised that government must not wait for the effects of the weather phenomenon to materialise before considering appropriate interventions.
Outlining the need for early action, the Government Statistician said: “Policymakers should take their predictions and then look at the right policy interventions to put in place to mitigate their impact.”
One of the major concerns is the potential impact of El Niño on agricultural production, particularly if changes in rainfall patterns result in inadequate rainfall during the farming season.
Dr Iddrisu warned that a reduction in rainfall could affect crop yields, weaken food supply and eventually translate into higher prices for consumers.
Explaining how the weather phenomenon could affect food availability and prices, he cautioned: “If, for example, it affects rainfall and we don’t get enough rain, that’s likely to affect food supply and all other things being equal. If there are shortages in food supply, that can affect food prices.”
A decline in agricultural output could create further pressure on household budgets, especially if food shortages coincide with increased demand for essential commodities.
The potential consequences, however, extend beyond agriculture, with Ghana's electricity generation capacity also exposed to the effects of prolonged dry conditions.
Read Also: El Niño conditions threaten prolonged dry spells, food production in Ghana – GMet
Dr Iddrisu identified the country's dependence on hydropower as another area of concern, explaining that reduced rainfall could affect water inflows into the Akosombo Dam and other reservoirs, with possible consequences for electricity generation.
A decline in hydropower generation could create difficulties for businesses and industries that depend on a reliable electricity supply to maintain production. Any increase in operating costs could subsequently be reflected in the prices of goods and services.
The Government Statistician also pointed out that electricity is one of the divisions measured under the Consumer Price Index (CPI), making developments in the power sector relevant to the country's inflation outlook.
Beyond domestic production, Ghana could also experience the effects of El Niño through disruptions in international markets.
Dr Iddrisu warned that adverse weather conditions in countries supplying Ghana with food and other commodities, particularly in parts of Asia, could affect international supply and increase import costs.
Such disruptions could expose the country to imported inflation, especially if higher global commodity prices feed into the cost of goods and services on the domestic market.
Highlighting the various channels through which the climate phenomenon could affect the economy, he said: “So, these are some of the impacts, possible impacts of El Niño on the country and then their transmission mechanism to prices.”
Cocoa production is another area the Government Statistician has identified as vulnerable to the anticipated weather conditions.
Given the importance of rainfall and temperature to cocoa cultivation, any adverse changes could affect production and influence prices, with implications for farmers and the wider cocoa industry.
Drawing attention to the commodity's vulnerability, Dr Iddrisu noted: “I must also say that usually it affects cocoa a lot. And when it affects cocoa, it affects cocoa prices.”
His warning comes as the Ghana Meteorological Agency has identified a developing severe El Niño event, with potential implications for rainfall patterns, agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation.
The main period of concern for Ghana is expected to run from November 2026 to April 2027, making the coming months particularly important for monitoring weather developments and assessing their possible economic consequences.
Dr Iddrisu has consequently called for meteorological forecasts to be incorporated into the country's economic analysis and policy planning, arguing that early preparation could help limit the potential impact on households and businesses.
He stressed that the projections from the Ghana Meteorological Agency should inform government decisions and help authorities anticipate possible disruptions before they translate into significant economic difficulties.
Reinforcing his call for the forecasts to guide policy decisions, the Government Statistician said: “The most important thing is that we should recognise that this has been forecasted by Meteo and then we have to take the projections or forecasts and feed them into the analysis that we do.”
He urged policymakers to identify and implement appropriate interventions to minimise the potential effects on food supply, electricity generation and prices.
With agriculture, hydropower, cocoa production and imported commodities potentially exposed, the anticipated El Niño event presents another challenge for Ghana's economic managers as they seek to maintain price stability.
For households and businesses, the key concern is whether the country can prepare adequately to prevent weather-related disruptions from triggering another wave of price increases in the months ahead.
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