Why the over 45.5 is the college football betting pick for Penn State vs. Northwestern tonight

We've got some college football action tonight, and I couldn't be more excited. Over the past few weeks, we have actually seen some really good football games on Friday night. Sure, there have been blowouts, but there have also been some fun games to enjoy. Tonight, I've got my eyes set on a matchup in my home state (even if I can't wager on it due to state regulations), as Penn State comes to town to take on Northwestern.

Penn State is one of those schools that has a bit more name value, but they haven't really earned it over the past, well, decade. Perhaps even longer than that. Without looking, can you tell me the last time Penn State had one or fewer losses? Probably not, so I'll tell you: it was 2005. Since then, it isn't like the program has been terrible, but they also haven't exactly been the dominant team that most associate with the name. Since 2005, they've gone 7-1 or 8-1 in the Big 10 just four times. They did make the College Football Playoff in 2024 and won in the first round.

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Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Chase Sowell runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa., on Sept. 26, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

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Now the team comes into today's contest with a 3-1 record, and they lost their first Big 10 game of the season. That loss came last week, at home, against Wisconsin. The Badgers are a good team, but more should be expected out of the Nittany Lions. They dropped the game 24-20, so again, it wasn't a blowout, but this isn't a game they should've lost. It also dropped Penn State from 13th in the country to being not ranked. Now they face a Northwestern team that has been okay over the years, but not great.

Northwestern comes into this game with a 2-1 record, but a winning season from them is often more surprising than expected. The Wildcats are a decent enough team, but in the Big 10, this is not a team that most people would put as one of the top options in their conference. The school has invested heavily in the team, but results have been average at best to this point. They started the season with a nice win over San Diego State, winning 34-18.

Northwestern Wildcats running back Joseph Himon II runs the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind., on Sept. 25, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

The following week, they took on Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. It wasn't exactly a good look for Mr. Prime, as he got wholloped by the Wildcats with a final score of 41-7. I do give more credit to Colorado just not being very good, and less credit to Northwestern being great. Last week, though, my eyes popped a bit as Northwestern was competitive with Indiana. They hung with one of the best in the country, on the road, and lost the game 29-23.

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Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles looks to throw a pass against the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind., on Sept. 25, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Now we have Penn State, after a loss, going on the road to face Northwestern, also after a loss. I would give the edge on offense to Penn State, but I'm not sure it is as significant as I would've thought when the season started. On defense, I think Northwestern has the personnel to keep up with the Nittany Lions, but not shut them down completely. I can't say I think Northwestern wins this, and I'm far too late to get a great number on them. Instead, I'm backing the over 45.5. I think we can see both teams get some offense going after a short week.

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