FAST FACTS: What is a Super El Niño, and what should we expect from it?

• PAGASA has declared a very strong El Niño, referred to as a Super El Niño, expected to peak at the end of 2026 and persist until mid-2027, leading to prolonged dry spells and drought in the Philippines.
• El Niño is characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures and can significantly impact weather patterns, agriculture, and water resources, with the last Super El Niño occurring from 2015 to 2016 causing extensive drought and agricultural losses.

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Are you ready for the Super El Niño?

On November 5, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared that a very strong El Niño was currently active in the tropical Pacific predicted to peak at the end of 2026 and persist until the first half of 2027.

Because of its intensity, foreign news outlets began referring to it as a “Godzilla El Niño” — referencing the giant mythical creature — or a Super El Niño.

Confused by terms used by government agencies, or curious about the difference between Super El Niño and a regular El Niño? Here are facts you need to know about this complex phenomenon.

First, what is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate event that happens when the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature is warmer than normal.

This phenomenon occurs as the trade winds across the Pacific weaken or sometimes reverse. These winds typically travel from east to west along the equator, carrying warm surface waters away from South America and toward Southeast Asia.

Because warmer ocean temperatures bring more rainfall, their absence in Southeast Asia during an El Niño brings cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures and an unusually dry climate.

El Niño is one extreme phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring global climate pattern driven by the Pacific Ocean’s temperature shifts. In contrast, La Niña is its cold phase, marked by colder-than-average sea surface temperatures.

Fishers off the coast of Peru first noticed periods of unusually warm water that come around Christmas time, hence calling them El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, or “Christ child” when capitalized. Afterwards, they named its contrasting phenomenon La Niña, meaning “little girl.”

El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years and typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last years.

How does it become a Super El Niño?

An El Niño becomes a very strong one when the ocean surface temperature threshold of 28 degrees Celsius (°C) along the monitored region rises by 2.0°C or more for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. A very strong El Niño is what’s known as the Super El Niño.

PAGASA applies the Relative Oceanic Niño Index or RONI used by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to determine ENSO conditions. See the classification scale below:

• Very Strong El Niño:  2.0°C and above
• Strong El Niño: 1.5°C to less than 2.0°C
• Moderate El Niño: 1.0°C to less than 1.5°C
• Weak El Niño: 0.5°C to less than 1.0°C
• Neutral: -0.5°C to less than 0.5°C
• Weak La Niña: -0.5°C to more than -1.0°C
• Moderate La Niña: -1.0°C to more than -1.5°C
• Strong La Niña: -1.5°C to -2.0°C
• Very Strong La Niña: -2.0°C and below

The last Super El Niño happened about a decade ago, from 2015 to 2016, when the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature increased, peaking at 2.72°C in November 2015. It lasted for 18 months.

A World Bank assessment report showed that during that particular El Niño, six cities, 16 provinces, and 65 municipalities declared a state of calamity, with over 400,000 farmers and 550,000 hectares affected by drought as of May 2016. Agricultural production losses then reached approximately P20 billion.

Expected weather conditions

This Super El Niño is expected to bring prolonged dry spells, drought, water shortages, food insecurity, and health and energy risks in the Philippines.

A dry spell occurs when rainfall is below normal for three consecutive months, or far below normal for two consecutive months. A drought occurs when rainfall is far below normal for three consecutive months, or below normal for five consecutive months.

Meanwhile, active tropical cyclones that may arrive could bring short-term but heavy rainfall to the western section of the Philippines. In an October announcement, PAGASA said two to six tropical cyclones may still develop within, or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from November 2026 to April 2027.

PAGASA previously observed that even during El Niño conditions this year, rainfall was also enhanced from August to September due to the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat.

With the Philippines already in the amihan season (northeast monsoon) — a period typically characterized by cool, dry weather — PAGASA indicated that temperatures could still remain warmer due to the active El Niño.

In its September advisory, the weather bureau emphasized the need for early preparations, including climate information and preparing essential services before the full impact of Super El Niño hits the Philippines.

Affected areas throughout the country

PAGASA’s November forecasts show numerous areas across the country that could be affected by drier climate for the duration of the Super El Niño.

The following areas may experience drought by the end of November:

• Luzon – Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
• Visayas – Capiz, Leyte, Negros Oriental, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte
• Mindanao – Isabela City, Misamis Oriental

Meanwhile, these areas could be experiencing dry spells at the same time period:

• Luzon – Abra, Apayao, Bataan, Batanes, Batangas, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Palawan (Kalayaan), Kalinga, La Union, Marinduque, Masbate, Mountain Province, Metro Manila, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Pangasinan, Quezon, Quirino, Romblon, Sorsogon, Zambales
• Visayas – Aklan, Antique, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Guimaras, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar
• Mindanao – Basilan, Camiguin, Cotabato, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Dinagat Islands, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Special Geographic Area, Sultan Kudarat, Sulu, Surigao del Norte, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay

In its November 4 advisory, PAGASA said that five provinces experienced meteorological drought, 11 were under a dry spell, and 10 experienced dry conditions as of October.

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources also reported that one of three barangays nationwide may be extremely vulnerable to water shortages. Based on its geospatial database analysis, the department classified the affected barangays into the following priority levels:

• High priority: 14,434 barangays or 34%
• Moderate priority: 17,046 barangays or 41%
• Low priority: 9,685 barangays or 23%
• Not affected: 883 or 2%

By March 2027, the weather bureau forecasted that the whole country may eventually face droughts.

El Niño preparedness

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction’s Climate Impact Outlook for the Philippines, the country has strategies in place to prepare for Super El Niño. See the table below:

It suggested prioritizing food production to lessen disruptions to the food supply, ensure sufficient water resources, and prepare for concurrent hazards that might overlap with Super El Niño, such as volcanic eruptions, typhoons, and earthquakes, which stretch provisions thin.

However, the national government has faced criticism over its preparations for the imminent crisis.

Aksyon Klima Pilipinas’ John Leo Algo pointed out the need for a publicly available El Niño action plan so coordination between the government, civil society groups, and stakeholders will be seamless and effective. Tracking where the budget goes throughout the plan is also easier if it is accessible.

The Federation of Free Farmers also expressed alarm in September over the government’s plans to cut the 2027 budget for agriculture and fisheries by 8%, saying that at this critical time, funding should be increased.

In October, they also demanded swifter distribution of the P45-billion assistance to farmers, saying that it might be too late for some areas if it took too long to arrive. – Rappler.com