Fantasy football Week 5 QB preview: Matthew Stafford in a great spot against the Bills

Heath Cummings likes Matthew Stafford in a favorable matchup, while Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett offer streaming upside

Oct 6, 2026 at 3:53 pm ET • 2 min read

The quarterback position is supposed to be one of the more stable and predictable positions in Fantasy Football. Through four weeks, it hardly looks like that is the case with Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, and Tyler Shough filling out the top five behind Josh Allen. Part of that is because Allen is the only quarterback drafted as a top-five option to have met or exceeded expectations. Part of it is that Shough, Young, and Goff are throwing 40-plus times a game, something no one expected. There is one other quarterback throwing 40 times per game, but he's not a top-12 QB. His name is Matthew Stafford, and I expect that to change in Week 5.

Stafford plays the Bills in Los Angeles on Monday night, and in the early run of my Week 5 projections, he comes out as QB1. Honestly, a lot of this has to do with the Bills defense. Through four weeks, they are giving up an average of 274 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs to QBs. And Goff is the only quarterback they have faced who currently ranks as a top-15 QB in Fantasy points per game. Drake Maye ended his nightmare start to the season with 31 Fantasy points against them last week. 

A bigger part of it is that Stafford has Puka Nacua back. While he still wasn't good against Philadelphia, he did throw for 317 yards and the return of Nacua gives him two receivers the Bills have little chance of covering. There is something not quite right with Stafford, as evidenced by his six interceptions on the season, but the return of Nacua and the weakness of the Bills defense make him a must-start option this week. 

Let's get to the rest of the preview:

Week 5 QB Preview

QB Preview

Numbers to know

• 765 -- Tyler Shough is on pace for 765 pass attempts. Tom Brady holds the NFL record with 733 attempts in a season.
• 31 -- Deshaun Watson's 31 rush attempts rank second behind only Josh Allen amongst quarterbacks this season.
• 2.9% -- Sam Darnold's 2.9% off target rate is the lowest mark in the league. He's a top 12 QB this week.
• 5.4 -- Bo Nix is averaging 5.4 air yards per attempt, the lowest average in the NFL. Daniel Jones is the only other QB below six.
• 2.42 -- Jordan Love's average time to pressure is 2.42 seconds. No QB is getting pressured faster.
• 33 -- Jared Goff has already thrown 33 passes in the red zone through four weeks. No other QB has thrown more than 28.
• 7 -- Josh Allen's seven rushing touchdowns are tied for the NFL lead, including running backs.
• 8.8 -- Brock Purdy's career adjusted yards per pass attempt is now 8.8, the highest mark in the history of the NFL.

QB Preview

Waiver Wire Targets

Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)

CLE Cleveland • #4 Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NYJ NYJ -2.5 O/U 40 OPP VS QB 7th QB RNK 17th ROSTERED 28% YTD Stats PAYDS 855 RUYDS 127 TD 6 INT 2 FPTS/G 19.7 Watson is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt and running more than anyone, not named Josh Allen. He's not all the way back to the guy he was in Houston, but it's not a stretch to say that this is the best he's played in Cleveland. The Browns have been unable to generate anything on the ground, which should keep Watson's pass volume on an upward trend. The Jets defense does rank well against QBs in Fantasy but they've also played Cam Ward and Tyson Bagent. Watson is just outside my top 12, but definitely the top streamer in the projections. I would start him over Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Bo Nix, to name a few.

ARI Arizona • #7 Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs DET DET -4.5 O/U 54.5 OPP VS QB 32nd QB RNK 9th ROSTERED 51% YTD Stats PAYDS 818 RUYDS 43 TD 7 INT 4 FPTS/G 17.7 Brissett isn't playing as well as he did last year, but he's still throwing the ball 38 times per game, which will keep him in the streaming conversation. This week, he gets a dream matchup at home against a beat-up Lions secondary. Every quarterback that has faced them has scored at least 25 Fantasy points. I project Brissett to fall just short of that number, but it should surprise anyone if he tops it.

One To Stash (QB Preview)

PIT Pittsburgh • #8
Age: 42 • Experience: 22 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP vs IND PIT -2.5 O/U 44.5	OPP VS QB 27th	QB RNK 16th	ROSTERED 17%

YTD Stats
PAYDS 999	RUYDS 12	TD 7	INT 4	FPTS/G 18.8

We have four teams on bye next week, including Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. So we may be a little more desperate for starters. Rodgers will face the Panthers in Week 6, whose secondary has been depleted by injury. Rodgers is throwing often and throwing deep in Mike McCarthy's offense and should have open receivers against Carolina.

QB Preview

DFS Plays

Top DFS Play

Projections powered by Sportsline

DET Detroit • #16
Age: 31 • Experience: 11 year

Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP @ ARI DET -4.5 O/U 54.5	OPP VS QB 29th	PROJ PTS 23.9	QB RNK 2nd

YTD Stats
PAYDS 1214	RUYDS 15	TD 9	INT 0	FPTS/G 26

This may be a matchup of the two worst pass defenses in the NFL. Not that Goff needs the help. He currently ranks fourth in pass attempts, second in passing yards, and tied for third in pass touchdowns. You don't need rushing production with those types of numbers. Don't hesitate to stack him with Jahmyr Gibbs and one of the Lions' other pass catchers.

Contrarian DFS Play

Projections powered by Sportsline

QB Preview

Heath's projections

My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.