South Africa braces for event that’s only happened three times in over 70 years

There’s a difference between ‘El Niño is happening’ and a genuine Super El Niño risk, and right now, forecasters are increasingly using the second framing.

What actually makes an El Niño a “super” one

Super El Niño’ isn’t an official scientific category.

It’s the informal term used once an event’s sea surface temperatures rise more than 2°C above normal in the central Pacific, a threshold meteorologists formally classify as ‘very strong.’

According to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, the current event could become only the fourth event to cross that threshold since around 1950, following those of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.

NOAA currently puts the odds of this event reaching that level at more than 80%, with some Pacific waters expected to run roughly 3°C warmer than average by the end of 2026.

Why the Super El Niño risk comparison matters

The most recent event of this scale, in 2015/16, pushed more than 36 million people across east and southern Africa into hunger.

Its impact was felt through food security, water access and livelihoods.

Some climate models now suggest this event could exceed the intensity of each of those three previous events individually, potentially becoming the most intense since at least 1950.

Scientists stress that outcome is far from certain, since every El Niño behaves differently.

What this means specifically for South Africa

The ENSO Reference Group says the event is ‘firmly established’ and will likely persist through the rest of 2026.

There’s also a real chance it strengthens further by late spring or early summer.

Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures from August through December.

The summer rainfall region is facing increasingly likely below-normal rainfall from September to November.

It’s expected to become the dominant pattern from October through December.

The group has noted South Africa enters this season in a stronger position than during past droughts.

Healthy dam levels and soil moisture built up over the last rainy season are helping.

Eish, it’s hectic to think we might be looking at only the fourth event like this in over 70 years, hey.

How is this El Niño already showing up in your day-to-day, if at all?