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Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction, odds, time: Week 6 college football Thursday picks by proven model

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SportsLine's model revealed its best bets for the Thursday Conference USA matchup between the Sam Houston Bearkats and Liberty Flames

• 2 min read

The Liberty Flames aim for their fifth consecutive win on Thursday night when they host the Sam Houston Bearkats in a nationally televised Conference USA matchup. The Flames (4-1) lost at James Madison to open the year but have take care of business since. Liberty's run-heavy attack ranks 31st nationally at 208.2 rushing yards per game, led by Kam Davis, and the defense has blanked opponents in seven of its last 12 quarters. The Flames beat Delaware 30-14 last week to open C-USA play. This is the conference opener for Sam Houston (1-3), whose pass-first offense is averaging 308 yards through the air. Landyn Locke has thrown for 1,168 yards and 11 TDs. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Va. The series is tied 1-1 since both joined CUSA. The Flames are 13.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 52.5 points in the latest Sam Houston vs. Liberty odds. Before making any Liberty vs. Sam Houston picks, check out the Sam Houston vs. Liberty predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Sam Houston vs. Liberty odds

Sam Houston vs. Liberty spread

Liberty -13.5

Sam Houston vs. Liberty over/under

52.5 points

Sam Houston vs. Liberty money line 

Liberty -550, Sam Houston +410

Sam Houston vs. Liberty picks

See picks at SportsLine

Sam Houston vs. Liberty streaming 

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Top Liberty vs. Sam Houston predictions

After simulating Sam Houston vs. Liberty 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 52.5 points at betting apps. Liberty has scored 51 and 30 points in its two games versus FBS competition since Week 1. Sam Houston has yet to score more than 21 points versus that level of opponent but has allowed 24, 23 and 49 points. 

Additionally, the matchups look to favor the offenses. Run-first Liberty takes on a Sam Houston defense that ranks 124th against the run, and nobody has truly slowed down Locke, as he's thrown 11 TDs. Two of his top targets, Chris Reed and Tim Burns Jr., each average over 20 yards per reception. 

SportsLine's model is projecting 53 points in this one, making the Over the value 51% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Liberty vs. Sam Houston picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Sam Houston vs. Liberty, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 40-35 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 6 on a profitable 40-35 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

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