The naira, the poor and the powerful

On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, I joined a distinguished gathering of Nigeria’s political, business, and intellectual elite, as well as youths, at the Congress Hall of the Transcorp Hilton, Abuja, for the 2nd Edition of the Oxford Global Think Tank Leadership Conference. Convened by Professor Arunma Oteh and co-chaired by His Highness Khalifa Muhammadu Sanusi II and Mr Atedo Peterside, with a keynote from Dr Akinwumi Adesina, the theme was unambiguous: “Leadership for a Prosperous Future.”

The timing could not have been more critical. The conference came at a defining moment for Nigeria, a moment where the official narrative of macroeconomic “stabilisation” clashes violently with the lived reality of the Nigerian street. As a candidate for the Senate to represent Kaduna North at NASS, I attended not just to listen, but to interrogate the “conversion mechanism”: how leadership translates potential into tangible delivery.

A major highlight of the conference was the launch of OGTT’s AI report and the AI Virtue Centre. However, outside the air-conditioned halls of the Hilton, a different reality persists. The conference rightly focused on resilience, innovation, and dynamism, but we must be honest about the baseline we are working from.

Official rhetoric often points to GDP growth projections of around 4.4% for 2026. Yet, the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria (2026–2032) presents a damning counter-narrative: approximately 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country. One in four Nigerian youths is neither employed, in education, nor in training.

How can an economy be considered “on course” when the majority of its citizens are trapped in multidimensional poverty? When the naira, despite recent gains, still trades at over N1,346 to the dollar, which is a stark contrast to the sub-N200 rate that defined a previous era? The foreign reserves being touted are of little comfort when juxtaposed with a total public debt profile that has ballooned to N166.79 trillion as of mid-2026. This translates to a crushing reality: every Nigerian, including a newborn, effectively carries a debt burden of approximately N702,185, which is roughly 10 months of earnings for a worker on the national minimum wage of N70,000.

We must move beyond the “Animal Farm” economics where a few billionaires flourish while over 200 million people struggle. The removal of the fuel subsidy and exchange rate liberalisation were sold as necessary bitter pills, but the administration’s decision to expend billions on projects like the Lagos-Calabar highway, a highway to their pockets, while Nigerians queue for hours at NNPC stations to buy petrol at over N1,347 per litre or CNG, suggests a government that is out of touch with the suffering of its people.

To put the naira’s collapse into stark perspective for ordinary Nigerians, consider two religious and cultural benchmarks that affect millions of Muslim families across Kaduna North and Nigeria:

In just over three years, a Muslim in Nigeria now needs more than N16.5m to meet the Zakat Nisab threshold, meaning a Muslim with N16m today is considered poor and not obligated to pay Zakat. Before this administration, N2m was sufficient. Similarly, the cost of performing Hajj has jumped from about ₦1 million to over N7m. This is not abstract macroeconomic data; it is the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians whose savings, purchasing power and religious obligations have been wiped out by currency devaluation and inflation.

During the AI Masterclass, I had the opportunity to ask a critical question: How can we use AI to reach more constituents and deliver the dividends of democracy more effectively? The answer I received, that AI-powered storytelling is the way, is profound. It is not just about technology; it is about agency.

The OGTT conference rightly argued that Africa must move from being a consumer of AI to a creator and shaper of the technology. This is the same challenge facing my party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP). We are arguing that Nigeria can provide fuel at N200 per litre, not by reintroducing the fraud of the past, but by fundamentally restructuring the value chain and embracing alternative energy and transparency.

I wanted to ask the experts at the conference: Is the SDP’s argument that we can provide fuel at N200 per litre without reintroducing subsidy given that subsidy post-Gen. Gowon’s administration has been a monumental fraud on Nigerians, is economically sound? And if not, what specific structural reforms would make such a price achievable? Unfortunately, there was no provision for questions during the main sessions, so this critical debate could not take place.

The OGTT conference was a logistical success, and the organisers deserve commendation. However, for such gatherings to transcend mere talk-shops, I offer four suggestions:

Produce a post-conference communique: A formal document summarising the key deliberations, with actionable recommendations specifically for the Nigerian government, should be submitted to the relevant ministries and the National Assembly.

Allow a structured Q&A session: At least five questions per session should be permitted. This would allow participants to interrogate the experts, test the assumptions presented, and ensure that the conference is not merely a one-way lecture but a genuine dialogue. My question on the SDP’s fuel-pricing argument would have enriched the energy policy discussion.

Establish a policy feedback loop: The AI Virtue Centre should not exist in isolation. It must be linked to a platform where young Nigerians and SMEs can submit real-world problems for the think tank to solve, creating a pipeline from intellect to industry.

Include the “everyday” stakeholders: The panellists were titans of industry and policy. Future editions would benefit from a dedicated session featuring small business owners, local farmers, local transport owners and tech founders from outside Lagos and Abuja, asking them directly: What does leadership mean to you?

As I met with the CEO of Sterling Bank, Mr Abubakar Suleiman, and listened to the performances, I was reminded that Nigeria’s greatest asset is its people. The challenge for the next generation of leaders, whether in the Senate or in the boardroom, is to move from the rhetoric of “prosperity” to the mechanics of “delivery.”

The conference was a wonderful day of learning. But for the millions of Nigerians living below the poverty line, for the Muslim family now priced out of Hajj, for the trader whose savings no longer meet the Zakat threshold, and for the taxi man waiting in a queue for exorbitant fuel or CNG, a wonderful day is not enough. They need a prosperous future, and they need it right now.

Adamu Rabiu, the Senatorial Seat Candidate for Kaduna North (Zone 1) in the 2027 general election, writes from Kaduna