Antara News·Indonesia·Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:01 AM UTC

Gibran resignation: Economist warns of risks to Indonesia's economy

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Imamatul Silfia, Fauzul Azhim Bin Fakhrurazi

..macroeconomic pressures stemming from political uncertainty would likely be felt only during the first few weeks.

Jakarta (ANTARA) - An economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), Yusuf Rendy Manilet, said Indonesia's macroeconomic stability could be maintained as long as the process of Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka's resignation proceeded in an orderly manner and in accordance with the Constitution.

"The macroeconomic impact will depend more on how the political process unfolds than on the change in officeholder itself. If the resignation and the appointment of a successor proceed swiftly, orderly, and in accordance with the Constitution, the impact is likely to be limited and temporary," Yusuf told ANTARA in Jakarta on Thursday.

Yusuf argued that macroeconomic pressures stemming from political uncertainty would likely be felt only during the first few weeks.

The effects could include volatility in the rupiah exchange rate and rising yields on government securities (SBN).

However, Yusuf said the pressure would ease once policy certainty was restored.

"Economic growth, inflation, and household consumption will not be significantly affected because government spending, stimulus disbursements, and ongoing investment projects can continue," he said.

Risks would increase if the process dragged on, triggered a power struggle between institutions, or led to social unrest, Yusuf said. Under such circumstances, Indonesia's risk premium could rise, potentially pushing the rupiah toward Rp18,500 per US dollar and driving the yield on 10-year government bonds above its current level of around 7.6 percent, he estimated.

Higher financing costs could also spill over into the real economy. Yusuf said the government might have to pay more in interest on its debt, businesses might postpone expansion plans, and middle-class households might delay major purchases.

"This pressure needs to be monitored because it is emerging alongside the Fed's monetary policy tightening and the MSCI consultation process, whose final decision is expected no later than June 2027. If domestic uncertainty persists while external pressures intensify, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027 could fall short of expectations," Yusuf explained.

In the most likely scenario, Yusuf said, the macroeconomic impact would remain limited as long as the government ensured that the political process was completed in accordance with the law, fiscal and investment policy directions remained unchanged, and coordination with monetary authorities remained strong.

Yusuf stressed that year-end budget execution, stimulus disbursements, and capital market reforms must also proceed on schedule.

"Bank Indonesia still has sufficient buffers to dampen volatility, supported by foreign exchange reserves of around US$146.5 billion as of August," he said.

Meanwhile, MPR Speaker Ahmad Muzani said the assembly would promptly follow up on Gibran's resignation letter, which was submitted on Thursday afternoon.

Muzani said the MPR had up to 60 days from the effective date of Gibran's resignation to elect a new vice president. Meanwhile, President Prabowo Subianto would have 14 days from the issuance of the MPR's formal request to submit two candidates for the vacant vice-presidential post.

Gibran personally submitted his resignation letter to the MPR during a meeting that lasted approximately 20 minutes.

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