MLB offseason grades: Red Sox land Jake Bauers amid winter's first big moves

The 2026-27 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade as this winter -- which is expected to include a labor stoppage -- unfolds.

Whether it's a franchise-changing free agent signing or an unexpected blockbuster trade, we'll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.

ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here -- this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for all the most recent analysis.

Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents

Red Sox get offensive boost with Bauers addition

The deal: four years, $58 million
Grade: A

The Red Sox weren't high on anybody's list of teams likely to sign Bauers given they already have an All-Star first baseman in Willson Contreras, but this signing is an early candidate for best move of the offseason. The grade reflects two thoughts: (1) That Bauers' breakout -- he finished 11th in the majors in OPS and third in on-base percentage this past season -- is for real; and (2) That the contract is a steal at $14.5 million per year.

Bauers will be entering his age-31 season, and, of course, spent years struggling in the majors before finally figuring things out, so while there would generally be concern that his 2026 season was a fluke, all the advanced metrics suggest the opposite. His Statcast numbers: 93rd percentile bat speed, 94th percentile hard-hit rate, 93rd percentile chase rate, 98th percentile walk rate. Those are real skills that aren't going to diminish overnight and should allow him to remain a productive hitter (he even hit left-handers well, so should project as a full-time player). Everyone saw the quality of his at-bats during the postseason throughout the Milwaukee Brewers' title run; he was named MVP of the National League Championship Series.

As for the contract, compare it to Josh Naylor's deal last year, when he signed a five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. Naylor was two years younger, but he was coming off a 129-OPS+, 3.0-WAR season compared to Bauers with a 140 OPS+ and 3.3 WAR. Yes, Naylor had the longer track record of success, but less power and a lower OBP. Bauers for $58 million looks like a potential bargain.

Contreras is under contract for 2027 with a team option for 2028 and is the better fielder, so Bauers slots in as the DH. That leaves Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in the outfield. Masataka Yoshida is still around for one more year as a backup, and the Red Sox will likely look to trade Jarren Duran, who still has two years of team control but is estimated to make $11.1 million in arbitration. With him coming off a bad season at the plate, the Red Sox might non-tender him if they can't trade him.

No doubt there will be criticism that the Red Sox needed a right-handed batter instead, but they actually had a slightly higher OPS against left-handers (.734 to .710). They just needed a good hitter, regardless of which side of the plate he stands on.

Remember that they also acquired the right-handed Curtis Mead from the Washington Nationals, only to see him get injured in his first game with the Red Sox. He'll be back and should slot in at second base. Boston also has shortstop Franklin Arias, one of the top three or four prospects in the minors who demolished Double- and Triple-A this year. Indeed, if Bauers comes close to his 2026 numbers and Roman Anthony hits like everyone thought he was going to in 2026, this could be one of the best lineups in the league:

LF Anthony (L)
RF Abreu (L)
1B Contreras (R)
DH Bauers (L)
CF Rafaela (R)
2B Mead (R)
C Adley Rutschman (S)
SS Arias (R) / Trevor Story (R)
3B Caleb Durbin (R)

As for the Brewers, it's sad to see a postseason hero go, although not necessarily unexpected. They could have afforded this contract, but they have first-base prospects just about ready in Andrew Fischer, who led the minors with 48 home runs, and Blake Burke, who hit 34 home runs and stole 29 bases. They also have Andrew Vaughn on hand as a place holder if Fischer and Burke aren't ready. Plus, they might need this money to sign William Contreras to a long-term extension. The Brewers will be fine. -- Schoenfield

Braves bolster bullpen by landing Phillips

The deal: Three years, $35 million
Grade: B-

The Atlanta Braves don't go after the biggest free agents -- B.J. Upton's $75 million deal in 2013 remains the largest free agent contract in franchise history -- but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos does like to strike as early as possible in the offseason, and he did that again with Evan Phillips.

Phillips will essentially take the roster spot of Raisel Iglesias, so the Braves will get a little younger and maybe a little better, although Iglesias had a good season as the closer in 2026 following some bumps in 2025. The Braves had one of the best bullpens in the majors this past year, leading in win probability added while ranking fourth in ERA and sixth in OPS allowed. Iglesias departs as a free agent, but Didier Fuentes or Robert Suarez can replace him as the ninth-inning guy, with Phillips likely slotting in as a setup man alongside lefties Dylan Lee and Dylan Dodd.

Phillips was one of the best relievers in the majors with the Dodgers in 2022-23 before suffering shoulder and elbow injuries at the end of the 2024 season and finally undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2025. He returned to make 31 appearances with the Dodgers in 2026, finishing with 33 strikeouts and just six walks in 26 innings. The stuff looked good -- he was throwing a little harder than pre-injury -- although he did serve up five home runs, and his injury history makes a three-year deal a little risky.

The belief was that the Braves' pitching priority this offseason would be a starter, but signing Phillips will allow them to stretch out Fuentes as a starter in spring training. He does have a three-pitch arsenal in his fastball, slider and splitter, and he has thrown a curveball in the past, so as effective as Fuentes was in relief as a rookie in 2026, it makes sense to see if it can work out for him in the rotation. -- Schoenfield

Tigers kick off free agency with Pagan deal

The deal: One year, $11.5 million
Grade: C

A key reason the Detroit Tigers finished 76-86 despite a plus-71 run differential was the bullpen: Despite finishing 12th in ERA, it ranked 26th in win probability added, so it performed worse in high-leverage situations. Out with Kenley Jansen, in with Emilio Pagan, who has been the Reds' closer the past two seasons.

Jansen was only 22-for-28 in saves in 2026, so maybe Pagan is only a small upgrade, but like Jansen, Pagan has been prone to the home run, serving up 17 in 111⅓ innings over the past two seasons. The Tigers are betting that getting out of Cincinnati -- where he allowed 12 of those 17 home runs -- will help. Pagan is a three-pitch reliever, with a splitter that he throws primarily to left-handers and a cutter he throws to right-handers. But his 95 mph fastball is rather pedestrian for a modern closer, and batters have hit 12 home runs off it the past two seasons.

Pagan is also turning 36 years old and his fastball velo dropped from 95.8 mph in 2025 to 94.9 in 2026, so there are a couple of red flags here. The Tigers had to add somebody to the bullpen, and doing so before the anticipated lockout is logical, but Pagan projects as a midtier closer rather than the elite guy Detroit needs. Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest both struggled in 2026, so the Tigers could still nab a reliable right-handed setup guy. -- Schoenfield