The week ahead in numbers: Factory growth, GST collections, vehicle sales

A look at the key economic developments, data releases and market events that could shape the week ahead.

Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts section features key data releases and announcements to watch for in the coming week. This week brings a mix of high-frequency data that will offer a closer look at the strength and composition of India’s economic activity.

The August IIP data will show if industrial growth can hold up after eight core sector output grew 6.7% in July. GST collections for September will show whether the rise in headline revenue is broadening beyond import-linked collections, which accounted for about 55% of the increase in August.

The government will also release August fiscal data, with the deficit at 26.8% of the full-year target through July. September vehicle sales, due from major automakers on 1 October, will provide an early read on demand ahead of the festive season after a sharp recovery in 2026 from last year. June-quarter external debt data will update the picture on India’s overseas liabilities and their composition.

Here are the key numbers to watch in the week ahead.

Industrial trends

The August index of industrial production (IIP) data will be released on 28 September. Industrial output has remained firm so far in FY27, growing 7.7% on average in June and July after expanding 2.9% in April and 1.5% in May. The stronger pace was led by manufacturing, which grew 9.5% in June and 7.3% in July, although the breadth of high growth narrowed. A Mint analysis of the 23 sectors in manufacturing shows 12 recorded growth of more than 10% in June, compared with eight in July.

Motor vehicles, transport equipment and electrical equipment were among the stronger performers in July, while tobacco and pharmaceuticals contracted. The August reading comes as growth in the eight core industries, which account for about 40% of the IIP basket, eased to 4.8% from 5% in July. Coal, natural gas, crude oil and fertilizers contracted during the month. The August IIP data will indicate whether the weakness in these core industries has weighed on the broader industrial sector, and whether manufacturing can sustain the strong pace seen since June.

GST mix

This week the Centre will release GST collections for transactions done in September, with import-linked revenue likely to remain an important driver of the headline number. Gross GST collections rose 14.8% year-on-year to ₹1.99 trillion in August, but the increase was led by revenue from imports, which rose 29%, against 9.3% growth in domestic revenue.

Import-linked collections contributed about 55% of the ₹25,737 crore year-on-year increase in gross GST in August, even though they accounted for just 31% of total collections. The stronger import component came as merchandise imports rose 14.1%. The value of crude-oil imports rose 25.8% year-on-year despite lower volumes, as higher crude prices increased the import bill. If import values remain elevated, import-linked GST could continue to push up overall collections.

Refunds, however, reduced the amount retained by the government. The net GST collections rose 67.9% to ₹31,795 crore in August, reducing the growth to 8.3% from 15.8% in July. Net domestic revenue grew just 3.4%, while net revenue from imports rose 22.3%.

Fiscal room

The Centre will release its August fiscal deficit data on 30 September. In the first four months of FY27, the fiscal deficit stood at ₹4.55 trillion, or 26.8% of the full year target, compared with 29.9% a year earlier. Net tax revenue rose 27.6% to ₹8.45 trillion, while capital expenditure increased 29.9% to ₹4.51 trillion.

The August numbers come as the government prepares to finalise its October-March borrowing calendar. It had raised ₹7.79 trillion of the ₹16.09 trillion FY27 gross borrowing programme by mid-September, leaving ₹7.96 trillion for the second half.

The key thing to watch will be whether tax collections maintain their pace as spending picks up in the second half of the year. That will depend partly on tax collections, but also on oil and fertilizer costs, which chief economic adviser Anantha Nageswaran recently flagged as “uncertainties for fiscal management”. A deficit that remains below last year’s pace would give the government more room to sustain capex while staying on track to meet its fiscal-deficit target of 4.3% of GDP.

Festive wheels

Auto firms such as Maruti, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra will release their September sales figures on 1 October, offering an early read on vehicle demand ahead of the festive season. Sales have recovered sharply in FY27 so far after a weaker run-up last year. A Mint analysis of year-on-year monthly average sales from April to August shows that sales declined in 2025 from the previous year, before rebounding sharply in 2026.

In FY26, August was particularly weak for sales, stemming from caution over anticipated GST rate changes that came into effect in September. Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Hyundai and Bajaj Auto all recorded year-on-year declines that month in that period. However, in August this year, the comparison was sharply different: sales at Tata Motors rose 59.2% from a year earlier, while Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti recorded increases of 40.4% and 34.3%, respectively.

Festive season sales typically strengthen in October and November, making September an important lead-in month. The August performance, particularly among the largest manufacturers, sets a higher base for the September numbers and could point to a stronger festive season than last year.

External exposure

India’s external debt data, set to be released on 30 September, will offer a fresh read on the country’s external funding needs at a time when foreign-currency inflows have surged. The key metric to watch is the composition of debt, particularly short-term liabilities, rather than the debt-to-GDP ratio, which has remained broadly stable. Loans have majorly accounted for the largest share of external debt at 34.8%, followed by currency and deposits at 22.4% and trade credit and advances at 19%, as of March 2026 quarter.

Debt securities accounted for 16.1%, while special drawing rights and direct investment made up smaller shares. The data will also capture a period of unusually strong foreign-currency mobilisation by Indian banks. Banks attracted $136.4 billion through the RBI’s special swap facility by end-August, including $127.2 billion through FCNR(B) deposits. The inflows have strengthened external buffers but also add to banks’ foreign-currency liabilities.

The upcoming numbers will show whether the recent increase in external liabilities has been accompanied by a change in the maturity profile. A further rise in short-term or near-term debt would make the composition of external debt more important to watch even if the headline debt ratio remains stable.

About the Author

Payal Bhattacharya is a data journalist at Mint, and writes analytical stories for the Plain Facts section. She has over nine years of experience covering the Indian economy. Her work focuses on core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, employment and the labour market, the informal sector, and government policies. She holds a Master’s degree in Economics, which underpins her ability to interpret official data releases, identify larger trends, and explain what they mean to the lay reader in practical terms. She closely tracks data like the national accounts, inflation indices, and labour surveys to produce clear, evidence-based reporting. Known for her clarity and precision, Payal focuses on presenting facts in a straightforward and accessible manner. Her stories place strong emphasis on data credibility, consistency, and context, aiming to help readers understand not just the numbers but also their real-world implications. She is particularly attentive to gaps and limitations in datasets, and highlights them in her stories when relevant. Committed to accuracy and transparency, Payal ensures her work remains a reliable resource for readers seeking to make sense of India’s economic realities.