Independence address, endless promises no specifics

Bayo Onanuga, the Senior Special Adviser to the President, accused critics of writing their responses without reading Tinubu’s address. That is certainly not true about me. In fact, the address was read to me by Uncle Sam, the Publisher of Vanguard, in his house – while asking for my comments on a few statements. Unknown to Uncle Sam, at least until I told him, my team was out from 6am monitoring the situation with transport fares in several bus stations in Lagos State. By the time three of us reached Uncle Sam’s house, reports from thirteen popular bus stations were in. So, I can state authoritatively that the address was read from start to finish. And, it was underwhelming. Silence is better when a leader has nothing important to say. But, before commenting on the address, here is what we observed on October 1, 2026 at bus stops.

Reports from most of the Northern states were most disappointing. Obviously, a state without any gas station cannot possibly crash transport fares.

In search of gas fueled buses

“CNG application” States fail to implement Tinubu’s low fare directive” – Report, October 2, 2026.

Tinubu’s government has been characterized by talking first and thinking later since he announced “fuel subsidy is gone”. His Minister of Transport, if he has a competent one, should have told him the truth and saved him from self-embarrassment. Nigeria is not ready for the massive introduction of CNG which would reduce transport fares significantly. Now, he has another unfulfilled promise charged to his account.

Apart from being on the road early on October 1, 2026, , three bus drivers operating on six major routes were recruited to report on the introduction of gas-fueled buses and the expected crash in transport fares arising from their introduction. President Tinubu promised Nigerians to crash transport fares on October 1. Nothing like that happened in most of Lagos. I was not surprised. Talking first, thinking later is FG policy.

FG was unprepared for October 1, 2026

Permit me to recall what I wrote last week before October 1 about the promise made to crash transport fares nationwide. President Tinubu must have been deceived, once again, by his Ministers and advisers. Given the number of gas stations and vehicles available, even Lagos State could not have felt the impact.

Promise of cheaper transport on October 1

“If you believe that, you will believe anything”. That is my usual response to any government promise made in panic and which cannot possibly be redeemed on time. Dreaming is not bad, as long as the dreamer(s) wake up to reality. Weekend Trust, September 26, 2026, exposed the false promise with its report titled “Nigeria’s Oct 1 Transport Deadline: Vision vs Reality”. Before that report, I have searched in vain for a new CNG station in Lagos Island and Mainland. The research was outsourced to friends living in Ikorodu, Epe, Magodo, Mushin, Ajegunle and Festac. The reports were uniformly depressing. But, I still kept hope alive. In the few places where CNG outlets were available, the queue and the cost of conversion to gas is discouraging potential customers. In Lagos, which has 15 gas stations, motorists in Eti-Osa, Epe, Agbowa, Lagos Island, Ikorodu, Yaba, Orile, Ajegunle etc would have to travel over 40 kilometres, one way, to buy gas for their cars. Then they will have to stay in the queue for hours as  additional hardship. Obviously, most of Lagos State will not be ready for the announced cheaper fare promise on October 1.

“No CNG facility in Taraba, Benue, Plateau” – Weekend Trust, September 26, 2026.

It is difficult to imagine how Nigerians living in the three states will experience any relief on October 1 without a single gas station in sight. That is official propaganda at its worst. A little better are Rivers and Kogi States with three stations each. Less fortunate are: Gombe, Adamawa,Katsina, Ondo and Zamfara having one station for states which are twenty to fifty times the size of Lagos.  There is no need to list all the states of the federation and the number of stations servicing each of them. The roll out is obviously too little, too late and will be followed by excuses after its failure.

Predictably, the FG has remained silent on the failed promise to crash transport fares. Elsewhere in the world, heads would have rolled. Those who misled Tinubu and exposed him to ridicule would have been shown the way out. We wait to see what would follow another failed promise.

Nothing said about insecurity

“28 killed despite curfew in Plateau” – Daily Trust, October 5, 2026.

“Mambilla’s descent into violence” – Daily Trust, Editorial, October 5, 2026.

“Kidnappers slash ransom to N100m as outrage mounts” – PUNCH, October 5, 2026.

As President Tinubu was speaking, urging Nigerians to glue their eyes to the dark tunnel in search of light, evil men were operating in every corner of Nigeria. On October 1, two buses conveying Youth Corpers to Abia and Akwa Ibom States were waylaid in Imo State in the South East. They were eventually rescued; but, not without lasting psychological traumas. The incident, now a recurring occurrence, now threatens the existence of the National Youth Service as never before.

Early in the year, Tinubu vowed that the genocide in Jos would be the last on the Plateau. Several more have occurred since then. On October 4, 2026, gunmen proved the presidential promise worthless once again; 28 Fulanis reportedly paid the supreme price of living in a country where the government is failing in its primary duty.

From the North Central the attention moved to the Northeast. The Daily Trust Editorial summarised for Nigerians the recurrent mayhem on the other Plateau – Mambilla.

“Last week, a fresh clash between Mambilla residents and Fulani Pastoralists reportedly left at least seven people dead, 186 livestock killed and more than 340 homes burnt, forcing 1000 residents to flee their communities…”.

Left unmentioned were acts of mindless violence committed elsewhere on October 1 alone. President Tinubu glossed over the leading cause of our slow development – insecurity. Only two explanations are possible. He is bereft of solutions; or he just hoped nobody would notice the omission. Yet, without security nationwide, rapid growth, which will actually light up the tunnel will remain a pipe dream.

A few words on the address

“Goals are dreams with deadlines” – Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.

The address was replete with promises about the future but short on specific dates for accomplishment. There were significant achievements based on monetary policy and subsidy removal – exchange rate stability, tremendous rise in external reserves, vastly increased revenue collection and allocation, as well as 4.5 per cent GDP growth. But, these positive results have not reflected in improved social welfare for the masses of Nigeria. Virtually all the gains have accrued to the wealthy, the petroleum and financial sectors and telecommunication networks. Manufacturers are hanging on the ropes.

Right now only the President, his appointees and party members can see the light at the end of the tunnel – when 4000MW guaranteed per day is still a mirage.