Petrol shocker: Prices could hit R30/litre next week

South Africa’s motorists are facing the prospect of record petrol prices next week, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to increases of around R3 per litre.

The month-end figures show that 95 unleaded petrol is currently experiencing an under-recovery of R3.12 per litre, while 93 petrol is sitting at R2.93 per litre.

If the current under-recoveries were carried through in full, the price of 95 petrol would move above R30 per litre in October.

However, the final adjustment is determined by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR), and the CEF figures are projections rather than the final pump-price increase.

Petrol prices heading for record levels

Economists are currently anticipating a petrol increase of approximately R3 per litre.

That would put October petrol prices at their highest levels on record, even if the final adjustment falls slightly short of the R30 mark.

The situation could also be influenced by any adjustment to the fuel price slate levy, meaning the final price cannot yet be calculated with certainty.

For motorists, the latest CEF projections are:

Fuel	Projected October increase
Petrol 93	R2.93/litre
Petrol 95	R3.12/litre
Diesel 0.05%	R2.73/litre
Diesel 0.005%	R3.13/litre
Illuminating paraffin	R3.38/litre

The latest projections represent a further deterioration from earlier September estimates as international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate put pressure on South Africa’s fuel-price formula.

Oil and rand driving the increase

Higher international oil prices have been a major contributor, with Brent crude trading around the $100-a-barrel level and above amid continued uncertainty surrounding the conflict involving the US and Iran.

At the same time, the rand has weakened against the dollar.

Diesel also faces a major increase

Petrol is not the only concern.

Diesel under-recoveries are currently between R2.73 and R3.13 per litre, with 0.005% diesel facing the largest projected increase.

That would push diesel prices further into record territory.

Previous CEF projections have already indicated that wholesale 0.005% diesel could move above R33 per litre, following the previous record levels reached earlier in 2026.

When will the new prices be announced?

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official October fuel-price adjustments early next week with the new prices scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 6 October.

Until the official announcement, motorists will have to wait to see whether the final adjustment takes petrol beyond the psychologically important R30-per-litre threshold.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $103.89 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.42/$.

Current September 2026 and projected October petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):

INLAND	September	October *
Petrol 93	R26.76	R29.69
Petrol 95	R26.92	R30.04
Diesel 0.05%	R29.11	R31.84
Diesel 0.005%	R30.05	R33.18
Illuminating Paraffin	R20.89	R24.27

COASTAL	September	October *
Petrol 93	R25.97	R28.90
Petrol 95	R26.05	R29.17
Diesel 0.05%	R28.24	R30.97
Diesel 0.005%	R28.79	R31.92
Illuminating Paraffin	R19.84	R23.22