Where Trump sees a deal, Putin sees a win for Russia

Moscow —  If only Donald Trump were President of Russia, he would surely agree a quick and easy deal to end the brutal Ukraine war, even – he might suggest – in as little as 24 hours.

It is, from Trump’s point of view, a no-brainer.

Not only would a resolution to the grinding conflict, now in its fifth year, halt the killing of what Trump refers to as the thousands of “young, beautiful kids” being slaughtered every month on the front lines, but it would – crucially – also be immensely profitable.

Sanctions on Moscow could be swept away while lucrative trade deals would inevitably ensue. Peace and prosperity, in other words, would prevail.

But, of course, Trump is not the President of Russia. That would be President Vladimir Putin, and the actual Kremlin strongman appears to have very little interest in compromising his stated war aims in Ukraine, either for the sake of Russian and Ukrainian lives or even for billions of dollars more in his state coffers.

It is a fundamental misunderstanding that has driven the Trump administration’s fruitless efforts to broker an end to the fighting, and which was again on show during the latest critical meeting in St. Petersburg between Trump’s business buddy-turned-top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and Putin himself.

At the table, Putin told Witkoff he was “curious” about the outcome of meetings in Norway the day before, where officials from the US, Europe and NATO huddled with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to hammer out new potential peace proposals, including economic incentives for Moscow.

Later, a top Kremlin aide confirmed Trump’s envoy briefed the Russian leader on the discussions, before adding, inevitably, that “in truth, these contained little of actual value for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”

It was an entirely predictable outcome from a Kremlin that has stubbornly refused to budge from its hardline positions, including gaining control over the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and a say in Kyiv’s future security arrangements.

Still, the White House may have genuinely hoped the Kremlin would show more willingness to compromise, especially after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports last week – a politically-driven bid to ease fuel prices in the US ahead of the midterm elections, but also a huge economic boon for Moscow.

Later, Trump announced an (unsuccessful) energy ceasefire that would have compelled Ukraine to halt damaging drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

Amid the recriminations, during which US intelligence sharing was impacted, Trump also called for a change in the Ukrainian leadership – all music to the Kremlin’s ears.

For Moscow, though, the deals, the incentives, and even the shared disdain for Kyiv are not seen as a cue to play ball and back down, but as a sign that its US strategy is yielding results.

And that strategy, unlike Washington’s, is clear-eyed, with the Kremlin leader understanding what motivates Trump and effortlessly distracting his temperamental opposite number in the White House with the promise of vast economic deals.

More of those were tabled by the Kremlin at the Witkoff meeting in St. Petersburg, where Putin praised the controversial diesel deal before suggesting Russia could also step up exports of crucial fertilizers to the US, and much more.

“We are also discussing different projects such as data centers, projects in energy and energy cooperation,” Kiril Dmitriev, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund and a key Kremlin interlocutor with Trump administration officials, said after the three-hour-long talks broke up.

And it’s not just economic baubles that the Kremlin uses to flatter and charm, or to keep a sympathetic ear at the White House.

Putin’s release – ahead of the St. Petersburg meeting – of a 74-year-old US citizen, Stephen Hubbard, held by Russia since being captured in Ukraine in 2022, at the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, was cast by a fawning Witkoff as the act of “a humanitarian.”

Hubbard, originally from Michigan, is reported to have suffered acute health problems during his four long years of captivity in a remote Russian penal colony. But his eventual release was lauded by the White House as a sign of Trump’s deal-making prowess and Putin’s deference.

“The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return – an unprecedented situation for Russia,” read a statement posted on Trump’s own Truth Social platform.

But it’s unlikely the tough former KGB officer in the Kremlin sees it that way.