Cyclonic storm likely over Bay of Bengal by November 16; Odisha on heavy rain alert

A low-pressure area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal by the evening of November 16, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The system has formed under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the central Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

IMD forecast

It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours.

Thereafter, it is likely to move north-northwestwards and strengthen further into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal around the evening of November 16.

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until November 16. Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh may also receive heavy rainfall on November 18 and 19.

This follows Cyclone Arnab and Murasu, which caused widespread damage in several states.

Odisha on alert

The Odisha government on Friday alerted district collectors in the state’s coastal and southern regions after IMD's forecast that a cyclonic storm could form over the Bay of Bengal.

Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said the IMD was yet to communicate the system’s possible impact on the state, news agency PTI reported.

“Though the IMD has not made any prediction, we have already taken precautionary measures and informed the district collectors of northern, southern and coastal regions to remain prepared and vigilant about the system brewing in the sea,” Pujari said.

Strong winds and rough seas are expected

The IMD has warned of squally weather, with wind speeds reaching 40-50 kmph and gusts up to 60 kmph, over the Andaman Sea and along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until November 16.

Over the Southeast Bay of Bengal, similar wind conditions are expected on November 14 and 15. Wind speeds are likely to increase to 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, on November 16 and 17.

In the Southwest Bay of Bengal, winds are likely to reach 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, on November 14, increasing to 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, on November 15. They are expected to strengthen further to 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, on November 16.

Gale winds reaching 60-70 kmph, with gusts up to 80 kmph, are likely over the Southwest Bay of Bengal from November 17 for the subsequent 24 hours.

Over the Central Bay of Bengal, squally winds reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, are likely on November 16. These are expected to intensify into gale winds reaching 65-75 kmph, with gusts up to 80 kmph, from November 17 for the subsequent two days.

Sea conditions are also expected to deteriorate. Rough to very rough seas are likely over the Andaman Sea and along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until November 16, and over the Southeast Bay of Bengal until November 17.

In the Southwest Bay of Bengal, rough to very rough seas are expected until November 15, turning very rough to high on November 16 and high from November 17 for the subsequent 24 hours. Over the Central Bay of Bengal, sea conditions are likely to become high from November 17 for the following two days.

The IMD has advised fishermen currently out at sea to return to the coast by November 15.