Cheng Li-wun’s KMT leadership

Early this month, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) held two large election campaign rallies in Taichung and New Taipei City on the same day. However, KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) was marginalized at the rallies. Cheng shouted herself hoarse campaigning onstage for the mayoral candidates, but neither candidate was onstage at the time.

In the morning of that day, the KMT’s Taichung mayoral candidate, Deputy Legislative Speaker Johnny Chiang (江啟臣), entered the venue accompanied by Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜).

That afternoon, the party’s New Taipei City mayoral candidate, Lee Shu-chuan (李四川), arrived, accompanied by Hou and Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安), while Han welcomed Lee onstage. The candidates’ entrance was the climax at both rallies.

When Cheng took the stage, not only did the mayoral candidates disappear, but the pan-blue camp heavyweights also kept their distance. Cheng has come to be perceived as politically toxic.

Originally, the nine-in-one local elections on Nov. 28 were seen as a midterm referendum for President William Lai (賴清德), but they have become a defense battle for Cheng.

The one who took the first shot was KMT Legislator Hsieh Yi-fong (謝衣?) from Changhua County, who led the polls for leadership of the party. After being eliminated by Cheng, Hsieh bluntly said five months ago that lawyer Wei Ping-cheng (魏平政) — who was appointed by the KMT headquarters as its Changhua County commissioner candidate — has little chance to win as she asked Cheng to take full responsibility and resign if she could not hold Changhua County.

Indeed, Wei’s campaign has been sluggish all the way. Former Changhua County commissioner Cho Po-yuan (卓伯源) took the next shot, saying that the Changhua County commissioner election has entered its final stretch, and if the party performs badly, Cheng should step down to take responsibility.

Finally, there was former Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), who commented at a rally that Cheng might need to step down should the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in New Taipei City. While the KMT’s overall campaign is flashing warning signs, similar negative feedback would only increase.

Japanese academic Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, who has long studied Taiwan’s elections, boldly predicted that even if the KMT really suffers at the polls, Cheng is unlikely to step down. The biggest key lies in Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), because the Chinese Communist Party is betting on her and is unlikely to agree to her resignation.

The defense battle of Cheng’s party leadership is ultimately a struggle between the Taiwanese public opinion and the will of Beijing.