WHAT to expect from MTBPS 2026 ‘reality check’ this week

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tables the MTBPS 2026 this week, and analysts say it’s going to be a tough one. Because February’s Budget speech was written before the US-Iran war, and that economic world more or less no longer exists.

Oh, what a difference eight months can make. Fuel costs have skyrocketed to record levels and previous growth forecasts look positively absurd in the current economy. As such, here’s the ‘reality check’ analysts predict we’ll face this week …

MTBPS 2026

• Growth: Treasury forecast 1.6% for 2026 in February. The IMF cut its 2026 forecast to just 1% last week. And 1.3% projected for 2027. South Africa’s GDP contracted 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter.
• Fuel and inflation: Brent crude is above $100 a barrel, and diesel has jumped from about R17 to R33 a litre. As such, Stanlib’s Kevin Lings expects inflation to top 5%.
• Interest rates: Reserve Bank has hiked them twice, taking the repo rate to 7.25% in September. This is instead of the cuts expected in February’s Budget.

TWO CAMPS ON BUDGET DEFICIT

Moreover, the SA Institute for Taxation (SAIT) expects a delay to Treasury’s debt-stabilisation forecast. Higher interest rates and a weaker rand lift debt costs and slow growth. Meanwhile, PSG expects a revenue overrun of R50 billion or more, with the deficit narrowing to about 3.5% of GDP. This is against a government deficit target of 3.7%.

A separate analysis puts the windfall higher at R70 billion, driven by corporate tax from gold and precious metals. Furthermore, PSG expects a fiscally conservative MTBPS 2026 that could set up ratings upgrades from Moody’s or S&P. As far as taxes go, SAIT calls it a resilience test, noting the minister kept his promise not to raise taxes in 2026. Therefore, it doesn’t expect any rate changes to be announced this Wednesday.

THE BIG GRANT QUESTION

Minister Godongwana said back in February that the details of the ‘expanded’ SASSA SRD grant would be revealed in the MTBPS 2026. Now is as good a time as any to finally put up or shut up. The R370 grant is funded until 31 March 2027, and the case on its regulations is before the courts. Estimates on expanding the grant to Basic Income Support could cost the National Treasury roughly R90 billion a year. Core SASSA grant beneficiaries will also be watching for any indication of movement on grants after October payments passed without zero top-up.

In conclusion, here’s what to watch for in MTBPS 2026 this Wednesday 21 October 2026:

• Treasury’s revised growth forecast, versus IMF’s predicted 1.0%.
• The deficit and primary surplus, versus the original 3.5%.
• Whether debt stabilisation is pushed out to 2027.
• Any signal on tax increases for 2027.
• Core and SRD SASSA grant future plans and costs.

But what do you think? Is there anything you’d like to see addressed directly in MTBPS 2026? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below …