Marc-Olivier Fortin: Éric Duhaime is all that stands in the way of a PQ majority

Looking at the polls, it is almost certain that Quebeckers will wake up on Tuesday to a Parti Québécois government. A majority is most likely, but the Conservative party’s growing momentum in ridings where it could take a handful of seats from the PQ, means a minority is still possible. Éric Duhaime and his Conservatives are hoping for a PQ minority. They may be hoping for the wrong outcome.

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Beyond the Quebec City area, where its support is the strongest, the Conservatives are making inroads in central Quebec and the Eastern Townships. To be in this position at this point of the campaign is already a feat. In the last election, Duhaime used the COVID crisis to his advantage. Despite winning more than 500,000 votes, his party failed to win a single seat. Nobody would have thought, in a parliamentary system, that a party with no seat would be able to stay relevant for four years and be competitive heading into the next election.

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Not only did he remain relevant, but Duhaime, more often than not, was able to set the agenda and suggest innovative solutions to decades-long problems. He recruited a full slate of candidates and built a very good and disciplined campaign. He offered a real contrast with Quebec’s political status quo, calling for the complete elimination of business subsidies and promising the largest tax cuts in the province’s history. He also proposed $47 billion in total spending cuts over five years. Duhaime talked about initiatives to increase Quebec’s birth rate by giving families greater choices in daycare, education and health care, and he did not hesitate to offer private-sector solutions. There is no doubt that Duhaime ran a successful campaign offering a bold and sharp contrast with the status quo.

Unlike its federal counterpart, which operates largely within existing economic models, favouring boutique tax credits, the Quebec Conservatives are trying to break the mould.

The party is now sitting at 17 per cent in the Quebec125 average as of Friday, 13 points behind the PQ. It is projected to win 15 seats in the 127 seat National Assembly. The last Conservative MNA was elected in 1935.

Ahead of Monday’s election, Duhaime has been calling for strategic voting, claiming he is the only one who can stop Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP, from winning a majority government. However, a word of caution; so far, Duhaime has been patient and has built a smart movement with limited resources. From what I hear on the ground, party operatives think they can pull off a couple of upsets in a few ridings that would be enough to deny the PQ a majority, but this could be too much too fast.

Consider the Action démocratique du Québec’s experience in 2007. Like the CAQ in 2018, the ADQ presented itself as a third option between federalism and separatism. It was an autonomist party offering some right-of-centre solutions. In 2007, the party went from four seats to 41, and became the official Opposition in a minority parliament.

It was apparent very quickly that the party was not ready for prime time. Constant scrutiny exposed the inexperience of its new MNAs. In trying to move too quickly toward power, the party undermined what had brought them success. Premier Jean Charest, an astute politician, took advantage of the situation. Twenty months later, he called an election and won a majority, reducing the ADQ to just seven seats.

While Duhaime is asking for a minority parliament in which he has the balance of power, he should be careful what he is wishing for. Politics rewards those who know when to strike. It punishes those who confuse motion with progress. The Conservatives do not need power at the moment. They need time.

Duhaime will have a lot on his plate during his first year in the National Assembly. Going from zero seats to 15 would be a major organizational challenge and a steep learning curve. Not to mention that this party has not had a parliamentary presence in generations. Trying to bring down a government soon after an election could be disastrous. On the contrary, they should take advantage of that time to gain experience, build a professional organization, recruit cabinet-calibre candidates and professionalize the party.

While the Conservatives use that time to build, PSPP will have his hands full. The PQ has not governed since 2012. Its caucus could grow from seven MNAs to 60+, most of them with no legislative experience. It will have to deal with the CAQ’s legacy of record deficits, address serious problems in education and health care, and lead a promised referendum in its first term.

PSPP knows his government will have to be successful if he wants Quebeckers to dream big and vote yes on the sovereignty question. He doesn’t have much room for error and three years is not much time to prepare for a vote that would determine the future of the province of Quebec within Canada, especially with polls placing the yes support at 31 per cent. It will be a referendum he cannot afford to lose.

According to Qc125, nearly 20 seats in the Assembly remain a pure toss-ups heading into Monday. But while all parties hope that a PQ minority would produce another election relatively quickly, I recommend caution.

Machiavelli understood that power does not belong to impatient princes, but to rivals who are willing to wait for their opponents to make mistakes. If a PQ majority is indeed coming, the Conservatives should not fear it. They should embrace it.

National Post

Marc-Olivier Fortin is the former national vice-president of the Conservative Party of Canada (2016-2018) and campaign manager for the CPC in Quebec (2021). He is now a regular commentator at RDI and on COGECO radio and works for Transfert, a firm specialized in social acceptability in mining, energy and heavy industry sectors.

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