Shehbaz Sharif’s big 2050 dream for Pakistan: Can it become a top-6 economy despite mounting debt, poverty?

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed confidence that the country could become the world's sixth-largest economy before 2050, bringing forward by more than 25 years a timeline projected by Goldman Sachs.

However, the ambitious target comes against the backdrop of mounting government debt, repeated dependence on international financial assistance, sluggish economic growth and rising poverty.

Speaking at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad on November 13, Sharif referred to a Goldman Sachs assessment that projected Pakistan could become the world's sixth-largest economy by 2075.

"I would like to make a small amendment here. Instead of 2075, it will be, Inshallah, earlier than 2050," he said.

However, the prime minister's ambitious projection faces a considerable economic challenge.

Pakistan continues to grapple with a large debt burden, limited fiscal room and structural weaknesses that have constrained its ability to generate sustained economic growth.

Pakistan's mounting debt burden raises questions about growth ambitions

Pakistan's total debt and liabilities climbed to ₹98.881 trillion at the end of September 2026, marking a 6.46% increase from ₹92.879 trillion a year earlier, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan.

The country's total debt stood at ₹97.038 trillion, including government domestic debt of ₹57.758 trillion and external debt of ₹37.197 trillion.

The pressure is also visible in Pakistan's external debt repayments. The country's external public debt stood at $98.075 billion as of June 30, 2026, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Pakistan paid $14.436 billion towards servicing its external public debt during FY26, including $11.198 billion in principal repayments and $3.238 billion in interest payments.

The growing debt burden leaves the government with limited resources to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare and other areas critical to long-term economic development.

Repeated IMF assistance highlights Pakistan's economic vulnerabilities

Pakistan's reliance on international financial assistance remains another challenge to its long-term economic ambitions.

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Islamabad on the fourth review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility and the third review of its $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

The agreement could unlock approximately $1.2 billion in additional funding, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board. The latest disbursement would bring total funding under the two programmes to around $5.7 billion.

While Pakistan has made progress towards macroeconomic stabilisation, the IMF has continued to flag the need for fiscal discipline, debt management and structural reforms.

The World Bank has also highlighted persistent weaknesses in the country's economic recovery.

Pakistan's real GDP grew 3.7% in FY26, up from 3.2% in FY25, but growth remains insufficient to generate enough jobs for its expanding workforce.

According to the World Bank, around 3.5 million people enter Pakistan's workforce every year, while job creation has failed to keep pace with the growing number of job seekers.

The country's national poverty rate also increased from 22% in FY19 to 29% in FY25, leaving approximately 70 million people living in poverty, the World Bank estimated.

What Goldman Sachs actually projected

The Goldman Sachs assessment cited by Sharif was published in December 2022 under the title 'The Path to 2075: Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact'.

The report projected that Pakistan could become the world's sixth-largest economy by 2075, provided it implemented appropriate policies and strengthened its institutions.

The projection also took demographic trends, productivity improvements and economic convergence into account.

A growing population could expand Pakistan's economic potential, but translating that demographic advantage into higher incomes and productivity would require sustained structural reforms.

Importantly, the 2050 timeline mentioned by Sharif was his own optimistic and not a realistic revision of the Goldman Sachs projection

With inputs from agencies.

About the Author

Bhanu Pratap is a journalist who reports and writes on foreign affairs, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics and strategic affairs. He closely follows diplomatic developments in New Delhi and has a keen interest in defence and national security.<br> <br> Bhanu also focuses on in-depth, interview-based reports and regularly speaking with experts and policymakers to bring perspectives and context to major developments around the world.<br> <br> He is also interested in stories with strong humanitarian angles.<br><br> One such report examined the cases of Indian nationals who were allegedly recruited and forced into Russia’s war against Ukraine. While reporting the story, Bhanu spoke to the families of those affected and documented their experiences. The report was later taken into account by the United Nations in its findings on human rights violations linked to the war in Ukraine.<br> <br> For Bhanu, the zeal to produce meaningful and impactful journalism remains at the heart of his work.<br> <br>He has previously worked with Firstpost, NDTV, Newslaundry and Republic.<br><br> Bhanu studied at the Delhi School of Journalism, University of Delhi. He initially chose science with plans to pursue engineering, influenced by conventional expectations, but fate had other plans and eventually led him to journalism.<br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Bhanu enjoys exploring culture and history and often spends his days off on heritage walks. He is also passionate about travelling, biking and listening to folk music.<br> <br>For tips, reviews and suggestions, you can reach him at bhanu.pratap@htdigital.in.