Why Arab parties could hold the key to government formation in Israel’s next election

Arab political parties could hold the key to government formation in Israel’s upcoming elections, with opinion polls suggesting that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition may secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

A poll of polls published by The Jerusalem Post puts the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett level with Netanyahu’s bloc at 54 seats each, while Arab parties are projected to win eight seats.

A separate survey by Israel’s Channel 12 also projects 54 seats for the opposition bloc, 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition and eight for Arab parties.

Meanwhile, a poll published by Maariv gives both Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition 52 seats each, with Arab parties projected to win 12 seats. Yoaz Hendel’s Reserve Party is forecast to secure another four seats, without committing to either camp.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

If the main blocs remain short of a majority, Arab parties could become crucial to determining who forms the next government.

Why Arab parties could hold the balance of power

The projections suggest that support from Arab lawmakers could help the Jewish opposition assemble a parliamentary majority and replace Netanyahu.

However, the prospect of Arab parties formally joining a government remains politically contentious.

Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List has said his party would use all available means to replace Netanyahu, while ruling out formally joining the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot, Lapid and Bennett.

“After the election, we'll impose our conditions on any political constellation in Israel. We have full freedom of action, with no limits, to replace the Netanyahu government, and we will use all the tools at our disposal,” Jabareen said, as per The Times of Israel.

His remarks indicate that Arab parties may be willing to support an alternative government without necessarily becoming formal members of the governing coalition.

However, most leaders of the Jewish opposition parties have rejected cooperation with Arab lawmakers to form an alternative government, complicating the path to a parliamentary majority.

What the polls say about the seat arithmetic

The Maariv survey offers a more detailed breakdown of the projected seat distribution.

Netanyahu’s bloc is forecast to win 52 seats, including 20 for his Likud party, eight for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power, seven each for United Torah Judaism and Shas, six for Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, and four for Ofer Winter’s Amcha Israel.

The Jewish opposition is also projected to win 52 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is forecast to secure 21 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 13, and Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu with nine seats each.

Arab parties are projected to win 12 seats, with the Joint List led by Jabareen securing seven and Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List winning five. Hendel’s Reserve Party is forecast to take four seats but has not declared which bloc it would support.

A repeat of Israel’s 2021 political experiment?

Israel has previously seen an Arab party play a pivotal role in forming a government.

In 2021, Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List joined the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, helping end Netanyahu’s 12-year stretch as prime minister. The arrangement was significant because an Arab party became a formal participant in an Israeli governing coalition.

The coalition, however, was ideologically diverse and faced disagreements over contentious policy issues. It eventually collapsed, paving the way for elections in 2022. Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as the largest party, and he returned to power with the support of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

Most Israelis oppose Arab parties joining the government

Despite their potential parliamentary influence, Arab parties face considerable public opposition to formal participation in the next government, according to Anadolu Agency.

The Maariv poll found that 59% of respondents opposed an Arab party joining the government after the election, while 36% supported the idea and 5% were undecided.

The survey found a different response to the participation of ultra-Orthodox Haredi parties: 53% supported their inclusion in the next government, 41% opposed it and 6% were undecided.

Netanyahu faces a contest shaped by the Gaza war

The upcoming election is the first since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which triggered the war in Gaza and contributed to a wider regional conflict.

The Maariv survey also found that 46% of respondents preferred former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot over Netanyahu as prime minister in a direct contest, compared with 40% who preferred Netanyahu. Fourteen per cent did not give a clear answer.

When respondents were asked to choose among several candidates, Netanyahu received 38%, followed by Eisenkot at 24% and Bennett at 14%. Other candidates received less than 10% each.

Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister. The position goes to the leader who can form a government backed by a parliamentary majority.

About the Author

Bhanu Pratap is a journalist who reports and writes on foreign affairs, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics and strategic affairs. He closely follows diplomatic developments in New Delhi and has a keen interest in defence and national security.<br> <br> Bhanu also focuses on in-depth, interview-based reports and regularly speaking with experts and policymakers to bring perspectives and context to major developments around the world.<br> <br> He is also interested in stories with strong humanitarian angles.<br><br> One such report examined the cases of Indian nationals who were allegedly recruited and forced into Russia’s war against Ukraine. While reporting the story, Bhanu spoke to the families of those affected and documented their experiences. The report was later taken into account by the United Nations in its findings on human rights violations linked to the war in Ukraine.<br> <br> For Bhanu, the zeal to produce meaningful and impactful journalism remains at the heart of his work.<br> <br>He has previously worked with Firstpost, NDTV, Newslaundry and Republic.<br><br> Bhanu studied at the Delhi School of Journalism, University of Delhi. He initially chose science with plans to pursue engineering, influenced by conventional expectations, but fate had other plans and eventually led him to journalism.<br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Bhanu enjoys exploring culture and history and often spends his days off on heritage walks. He is also passionate about travelling, biking and listening to folk music.<br> <br>For tips, reviews and suggestions, you can reach him at bhanu.pratap@htdigital.in.