Betting preview: Guardians vs Rays Game 2 pitching matchup features Parker Messick against Freddy Peralta

It was not a pretty day for me on the diamond yesterday, as both of my Championship Series plays lost. I backed the Dodgers and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had his worst playoff start ever. I also backed the Rays and Drew Rasmussen, who was fine until he allowed a couple of homers, and the Rays bullpen had a meltdown. We return to that series between the Guardians and Rays for Game 2 tonight.

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The Cleveland Guardians are not known for putting up a ton of runs. The team finished 24th in baseball in runs scored this year. Most of their success was built on quality pitching and manufacturing runs. The team was only 27th in the league in home runs, so it wasn't like they were getting a ton of runs from putting the ball over the fence. Last night, they did a little bit of everything. After being held scoreless, they hit a solo homer in both the sixth and seventh innings to tie the game. Then in the eighth, they hit a two-run single that gave them the lead, and they never looked back. They added another three in the ninth and put the game out of reach.

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Jun 23, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick (77) delivers the ball during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field. (Matt Marton)

Tonight, they are looking to go up 2-0 on the Rays, and they send out one of their best pitchers to the mound. Parker Messick heads to the hill after a season where he threw to a 12-9 record, 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Playing in Cleveland, he doesn't get as much national media attention, but his ERA and WHIP are both top-10. He pitched twice against the White Sox and allowed two earned runs in both of his games. Overall, he allowed four earned runs in 6.2 innings. Control was a bit of an issue, as he allowed six walks in that span, but he did strike out 11 hitters. He faced Tampa twice this season and allowed two earned runs over 13.1 innings of work.

Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays rounds second base during the first inning of a game against the Colorado Rockies at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 29, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Mark Taylor/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays lost their first postseason game last night. The Rays could still be in very good shape, but the problem is that they had their best starting pitch yesterday, and they lost a home game. This season, the Rays went 55-26 at home and 43-38 on the road, and now they've lost home-field advantage. Going down 2-0 might be a disaster that the Rays can't overcome. They didn't exactly play poorly last night, but the bullpen certainly needs to perform better.

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The team will also look to get a strong start from Freddy Peralta tonight. In the postseason, Peralta has made one start and allowed one earned run on a solo homer over 4.2 innings. He gave up three hits, one walk and struck out three hitters. He only threw 66 pitches, so his arm should be plenty fresh, having not thrown since the 5th. Peralta did not face the Guardians at all this season, but over his career, he allowed seven hits over 38 at-bats, and all of them have been singles.

Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates after singling in the third inning during Game 2 of the American League Division Series between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Rays won't be eliminated if they lose tonight, but I can't believe they will advance if they do. I suppose the good news for them is that, as good as Messick has pitched against the team, the Rays won both games. Peralta gives them a really good opportunity to win the game. I would be surprised to see the teams rack up runs like yesterday, though. I'm going to back the under 7 in tonight's game.

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