New analysis reveals there will be 250,000 more NEETs in five years unless action is taken

The crisis with under-25s out of work and education is set to escalate with more than a quarter of a million more destined for benefits, according to new analysis seen by The Independent.

The number of so-called NEETs (not in education, employment or training) aged 16 to-24 years old will rise by 280,000 to reach 1.26 million by 2031, accounting for one in six of that age group.

The analysis carried out for the Liberal Democrat is based on former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn's review, which estimates the crisis already costs the country £125 billion a year.

Based on the Milburn findings the extra young people would add around £36 billion annually to the bill unless the government acts to “shut off the NEET pipeline at source”, Andy Burnham has been warned.

The Lib Dems are calling on the government to introduce a 100-hour work experience guarantee and a careers coach for every young person - to ensure everyone leaving school is equipped with the best possible skills to succeed in life.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: “Every teacher knows a child that started secondary school bright and eager, but over the years drifted to the back of the class. Too often, nobody notices, and they slip through the cracks to become one of the almost one million young people not in education or training.

“As a young carer for my mum, and now as a dad to a son with complex needs, I know how much it matters when someone truly notices what a young person is going through.

“Unless we act now, hundreds of thousands more young people will slip through the cracks, stuck without the education, training or guidance to succeed. Milburn's report is a once-in-a-generation chance to shut off the NEET pipeline at source. Ministers must seize it.”

Currently, nearly a million young people (981,000) are already NEET, up 30,000 in a year. Milburn's interim report found the system already has the data to spot those at risk, but lacks the architecture, funding and accountability to act on it.

The Lib Dems want Andy Burnham’s government to commit to a 100-hour work experience and enrichment guarantee.

This would mean every young person would be guaranteed at least 100 hours of work placements, career-focused enrichment or volunteering.

They also want to see personalised careers coaching provided.

This would involve “a real person” rather than online platforms meeting young people multiple times a year, helping each young person build a five-year plan for life after education.

The proposal draws on best practice from the Netherlands and Germany and would be delivered in partnership with the third sector.

Milburn's interim report found careers guidance in schools to be underpowered, with NEET young people far less likely to feel ready for work when they leave education.

They are also calling for an overhaul of A-Levels into a baccalaureate-style system, alongside T-Levels and V-Levels, so no young person is forced down a narrow pathway at 14 or 16 that doesn't suit them.

The party warned that Labour's plans to make pupils choose between academic and technical qualifications at 14 could funnel disadvantaged children into narrower routes. The Conservatives let more than £2 billion set aside for apprenticeships go unspent while in government, allowed the pupil premium to wither, and now want to cut 100,000 university places a year.

Savanta polling found 56 per cent of 16-to-24-year-olds had hit major roadblocks finding work in the past year, and one in five (19 per cent) had given up looking altogether.

Education spokesperson Munira Wilson said: “It is nothing short of a national moral failure that we now have nearly a million young people out of work or training. We all have a responsibility to provide the next generation the same opportunities we were afforded - but we have not held up our end of the deal. Enough is enough.

“Our plan is ready to go. 100 hours of real work experience and a proper careers coach for every young person - we urge the Prime Minister to use this plan so this is the last generation that ever has to experience a NEETs crisis.”

Labour housing minister Matthew Pennycook admitted the current system for NEETs means the government is “paying for failure,” and that the focus should shift to investing in their futures with intensive support rather than writing cheques and forgetting about them.

He told LBC that suggestions "need to be taken as a package and looked at in the round".

He said: "We've got to invest in their futures rather than paying for failure.

"The prime minister has been absolutely clear that the status quo isn't working."