Monsoon rainfall in 2026 fourth-lowest since 2001, says IMD

Southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 stood at 87% of the long-period average (LPA), with cumulative precipitation of 759.4 mm during the June-September season, making it the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The deficient monsoon, which arrived in Kerala on 4 June, three days after its normal onset date of 1 June, could weigh on farm output, particularly in rain-fed regions, while hurting crop yields, rural incomes and raising concerns over food inflation.

India last recorded a below-normal monsoon in 2023, when rainfall was 95% of the LPA.

Rainfall was 35.4% below normal in June, 1% above normal in July, 16.3% below normal in August, and 7.6% below normal in September, showed IMD data.

The southwest monsoon accounts for more than 70% of India's annual rainfall, while about 45% of the country's net sown area remains rain-fed. A good monsoon supports rural demand, while weak rainfall weighs on consumption.

The IMD cut its monsoon forecast to 90% of the LPA, with a model error of ±4%, from 92% on 29 May, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions.

The deficient rainfall across the country has impacted kharif sowing. Farmers had sown 110.39 million hectares as of 18 September, around 1.5 million hectares lower than last year, according to agriculture ministry data. The headline figure obscures declines in key crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton, which are crucial to India’s food and fibre supplies.

Rice acreage fell 3.7% year-on-year to 42.9 million hectares. Pulses offered some support, with acreage rising 1.4% to 11.9 million hectares, led by gains in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

Seasonal rainfall

The IMD said that seasonal rainfall over peninsular India, consisting of five meteorological subdivisions—Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka—during October-December, however, is most likely to be normal, at 88-112% of the LPA.

The LPA of rainfall over peninsular India during the postmonsoon season based on data from 1971 to 2020 is about 334.1 mm. “Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, except some areas of northwest India and southern parts of the peninsular India, where rainfall is likely to be normal to above-normal,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra director general of meteorology, IMD, said.

Also, monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during October 2026 is likely to be below normal, <85% of the LPA.

Inflation risks

Experts said another spell of weak rainfall could hit rabi crops and vegetables, hurting farm incomes, rural demand and food prices.

“So the 13% monsoon deficit this June to September, combined with a likely below normal October rainfall, tightens the moisture and the irrigation base for the Rabi season, just as sowing for wheat, mustard and chana begins,” said Anjal Prakash, professor of public policy at FLAME University, Pune.

"The reservoir level, while better than mid-summer, remains below last year in several key states. So this raises a risk of sub-optimal sowing in rain-fed and canal-dependent pockets of say Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana, which can also translate into lower yield if the dry spells persist into early November," Prakash added.

A rainfall deficit could also delay preparations for rabi crops in some regions and add upside pressure to food inflation, particularly vegetables and edible oils, Prakash said. Weak farm incomes could also weigh on rural demand, he added.

India’s retail inflation rose to a 20-month high of 4.82% in August, driven by higher food and fuel prices, taking it above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target midpoint for the third consecutive month since January 2025. Food inflation, a key constituent of the consumer price index, firmed up to 5.95% in the month from 5.52% in July, 5.32% in June, 4.78% in May and 4.20% in April, showed provisional data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation on Monday.

The El Niño Impact

Strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to intensify through year-end, raising concerns over their potential impact on weather and agriculture.

"Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures well above average (especially in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific). Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other major climate models indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year," said Mohapatra.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that typically alters rainfall patterns worldwide. El Niño is generally associated with warmer-than-normal global average temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns.

External affairs minister S. Jaishankar on Tuesday warned that the world faces a major food crisis in the coming months, citing shortages of fertilizers, disrupted grain shipments and the threat of a Super El Niño, as the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf hit Global South economies.

Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York, Jaishankar said some of the major grain exporters would be unable to ship, and that significant fertilizer shortages were emerging. “There is going to be a major food crisis, probably in the coming months,” he said, adding the Super El Niño to the list of pressures.

India's foodgrain stocks remain substantially above prescribed buffer norms, providing a cushion for meeting food security requirements. As of 1 September 2026, rice stocks in the central pool stood at 39.05 million tonnes, nearly three times the prescribed buffer norm of 13.5 million tonnes. Wheat stocks were 48 million tonnes, well above the buffer requirement of 27.6 million tonnes.