College football odds, predictions: Miami vs. Notre Dame, BYU vs. Utah lead monster Week 10

Following the release of Tuesday night's first College Football Playoff rankings, we have never seen a weekend with this many top-end games inside the top 25 coming down the stretch.

Captivating matchups within the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 lead the docket, along with unbeaten and top-ranked Miami's trip to No. 11 Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish will try to post their first ranked win of the campaign. There are six games involving top-25 teams, tying for the most-ever on Saturday, and we've included all in our Week 10 predictions.

You can toss the AP poll out the window moving forward, since all that matters now is the CFP selection committee's cluster of teams, their metrics and which squads are battling for at-large spots in the 12-team bracket. 

With auto-bids going to the four highest-ranked conference champions and the Group of Six's highest-ranked team, teams on the bubble or outside their respective league title races are vying for seven spots to fill out the bracket.

Season results: Brad Crawford (53-28 straight up, 39-41-1 ATS); Chris Hummer (58-23 straight up, 41–39-1 ATS)

This college football picks season feels like a scene in a movie where you trip walking through a cafeteria and everything on your tray crashes violently to the ground in a chaotic mess. I'm cleaning up my food again after another 4-6 weeks of wild results, which was surprisingly one game better than my colleague. Ahead of college football's most impactful weekend of the campaign, I'm bringing a boxed lunch.

No. 19 Iowa at Northwestern (-1.5)

Hummer (Iowa +1.5): Iowa's turned the ball over eight times this season. Six of them have come in the Hawkeyes' two losses. So, in many ways this comes down to which version of Iowa we see. The traditional ball-control, defense-first Hawkeyes can go on the road and win this game. A turnover-prone unit that coughs up the ball to an aggressive Wildcats defense (13 forced turnovers) could struggle. Give me Iowa in this one. The Hawkeyes are better along the lines of scrimmage and should be in the right spots to slow down Aidan Chiles. … Iowa 24, Northwestern 21.

Crawford (Iowa +1.5): I whiffed on the Hawkeyes last week, and I'm not going to make the same mistake again. Had Iowa beaten Minnesota on the road two weeks ago, Kirk Ferentz's team would be entering the final month of the season in control of their own Big Ten and CFP destiny. Instead, they're hanging on to a shutout win over Wisconsin as their best of the season and have a shot at another quality victory against Northwestern in Evanston. This one comes down to execution in the red zone and which team can exchange field goals for touchdowns. ... Iowa 23, Northwestern 20.

No. 9 BYU at No. 3 Utah (-4.5)

Hummer (BYU +4.5): These teams profile similarly. They've built atop strong run games, excellent offensive lines and quality defenses. But there are differences. Utah is among the most explosive offenses in the country (5th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards), while BYU is far more methodical in how it creates offense. The defensive profiles are similar. The Cougars make teams drive. Utah creates havoc and turnovers. Utah has the most variance. But I like that in a game like this. The Utes create more chunk plays and pull away late. … Utah 31, BYU 28.

Crawford (BYU +4.5): The Utes are a wagon. Anyone believing otherwise saw a case in point during last week's beatdown of Cincinnati. Sure, the Bearcats weren't going consecutive weeks with top-15 wins, but that's a solid football team in the Big 12, and Utah dismantled them by halftime. Morgan Scalley's squad has a real chance of going 13-0 this fall before the playoff. Those chances increase substantially in the move past BYU this weekend. ... Utah 30, BYU 27.

No. 7 Texas (-3.5) at No. 18 Missouri

Hummer (Texas -3.5): This is a game Texas should be able to win on the road. The Longhorns have the front seven to take away Missouri's run game. Only Georgia in the SEC is allowing fewer yards per carry. And as up and down as Arch Manning has been, he should be able to take advantage of a Tigers defense that's 92nd nationally in passing yards allowed per game. The caveat to that is Texas enters this game super banged up, including in the secondary, which could be an issue against Austin Simmons. It's not a confident pick, but I'll take Texas. … Texas 27, Missouri 21.

Crawford (Missouri +3.5): The first of many games in the SEC this weekend that feels like throwing darts at a board while blindfolded, Missouri's been gearing up for this one. For a team lacking a signature win, there's no bigger opportunity than taking out college football's highest-ranked two-loss team as a home underdog. I'm not expecting a full workload for Ahmad Hardy, but he should get a dozen or so touches behind Jamal Roberts as the Tigers try to win at the line of scrimmage. Arch Manning hasn't been dependable in the fourth quarter, and this presents another opportunity for the Longhorns to need him to win late. I don't think it happens in CoMo in an outright upset. ... Missouri 27, Texas 24.

No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (-3.5)

Hummer (Alabama +3.5): I worried about Alabama's offensive line coming into the year, and those issues have begun to pop up in the middle of SEC play. The Tide rank 75th nationally in rushing yards created before contact and just 105th nationally in pressure rate allowed in passing situations. That's not ideal, especially against an elite LSU defensive front. The Tigers can struggle to run the ball at times, and Sam Leavitt has been turnover-prone. But if LSU can play reasonably clean, it'll win this game. … LSU 31, Alabama 28.

Crawford (LSU -3.5): Huge spot for Kalen DeBoer and Lane Kiffin here, with the loser facing potential elimination from the CFP conversation given the likelihood of multiple 9-3 finishers in the SEC fiending for at-large berths. Shockingly, LSU doesn't have a ranked win yet, while the Crimson Tide have two after South Carolina recently entered the chat. Boosters won't be happy in Baton Rouge if the Tigers swing and miss here against one of their league rivals. With Texas and Tennessee looming, a season-defining stretch has begun for LSU. ... LSU 28, Alabama 24.

No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State (-9.5)

Hummer (Ohio State -9.5): This is not the heavyweight battle everyone expected coming into the year. Both teams are down their starting quarterback and have already combined for five losses. Still, there is an incredible amount of talent on the field. This game will really come down to Oregon's ability (or inability) to generate points. That unit played better last week against Northwestern following an OC change. But an elite Buckeyes defense is a much different test. … Ohio State 31, Oregon 21.

Crawford (Ohio State -9.5): Why has the entire country bailed on the Buckeyes after last weekend's loss at USC? The optics aren't great following freshman quarterback Luke Fahey's first start and several explosive plays given up on defense, but this weekend offers a much better matchup for Ohio State, which has tumbled outside the top five. Ryan Day hasn't forgotten how to coach, and things should get easier for his defense against a team that's struggled to score throughout the campaign. The line might look high here, but I don't think it's enough. Ohio State bounces back and maintains its place in the conference picture. ... Ohio State 31, Oregon 14.

No. 8 UCLA (-6.5) at Minnesota

Hummer (Minnesota +6.5): I like the Gophers to cover in this one. This is a game where the two defenses are likely to beat up on the offenses for 60 minutes. They're both top-35 defenses going up against offenses that have struggled for big stretches this season. The Bruins haven't scored 30 points since September. The Gophers still haven't hit that mark against a Power Four opponent. I think this game is ripe for an upset. The Bruins have to travel two time zones for a 12 p.m. kickoff. Minnesota scores enough to win an ugly game. … Minnesota 20, UCLA 17.

Crawford (Minnesota +6.5): How can you not be impressed by Minnesota's defensive performances in recent weeks? The Gophers beat Iowa, only gave up two scores against Michigan, and played well enough to topple Indiana had it not been for the Hoosiers' heroic field goal that forced overtime. That said, elite defense is exactly what this opposing unbeaten does best. Twenty points will be enough to win this game as the Bruins continue their march toward the Big Ten title game under first-year coach Bob Chesney. ... UCLA 20, Minnesota 14.

No. 6 Kentucky at No. 13 Tennessee (-6.5)

Hummer (Kentucky +6.5): Interesting game with both teams coming off a bye. Kentucky has the offensive line to mitigate Tennessee's biggest strength (the defensive line). But this is a game in which the Vols have an advantage running the football and at the skill positions. Kentucky is too well coached to be blown out. But I do like the Vols at home. … Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24.

Crawford (Tennessee -6.5): This one means infinitely more for Tennessee than it does for Kentucky, and for that reason, the pick's easy here. Wildcats fans, Will Stein and everyone associated with the SEC's co-leader right now don't want to hear that, but there's still some margin for error at Kentucky en route to the program's first CFP appearance. For the Vols, that ended a few weeks ago at South Carolina following their upset loss. Kentucky can lose Saturday -- win out against Missouri, Florida and Louisville -- and still get a first-round home game. Tennessee desperately needs to win with LSU looming later this month. ... Tennessee 24, Kentucky 17.

No. 2 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 10 Ole Miss

Hummer (Georgia -3.5): Can elite quarterback play make up for Ole Miss' inherent defensive flaws against an elite team like Georgia? It's possible. Trinidad Chambliss scaled that gap a year ago in the playoff. But this Ole Miss defense is worse than last year's, and the injury to star running back Kewan Lacy really hurts the Rebels' offense. Georgia controls the lines of scrimmage and gets a big road win. … Georgia 31, Ole Miss 24.

Crawford (Ole Miss +3.5): This is a difficult spot for the Bulldogs, coming off the emotional win over Florida only to now contend with Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels on the road at night. In two previous career starts against Kirby Smart, Chambliss accounted for 677 yards of total offense and five touchdowns. Georgia hasn't figured him out yet, and he may have to play the role of Superman this weekend with Kewan Lacy likely out. If Lacy were healthy, I'd take the Rebels here outright, but considering what happened in last season's CFP quarterfinals, Ole Miss has Georgia's full attention. The Bulldogs will do what they can to make the Rebels one-dimensional and turn up the heat on Chambliss. ... Georgia 30, Ole Miss 27.

No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame (-4.5)

Hummer (Miami +4.5): Miami's been a buzz saw this season. The Irish have largely been as well. So, what makes the difference? It's how the teams fare in three areas: 

1. How does a shaky Miami secondary (81st nationally in opposing passer rating) hold up against CJ Carr? 

2. Can Notre Dame run the ball and establish its offense against the nation's best run defense? 

3. Can the Irish's corners behind Leonard Moore hold up against an elite group of receivers? I think the slight advantage goes to the Irish. … Notre Dame 34, Miami 31.

Crawford (Miami +4.5): Yes, the Hurricanes' defense worries me right now. Yes, this one means more for Notre Dame than it does Miami. Yes, one could argue that the Hurricanes' lack of tests this season, given their schedule, fails to prepare them for this one. Those are all facts, but I'm sticking with my preseason projection, with Mario Cristobal's team going end-to-end as the Power Four's only unbeaten. Darian Mensah, Malachi Toney and this team go into South Bend and win, all but wrapping up the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP. This pick is not high on the confidence list this week, however. ... Miami 31, Notre Dame 27.