Labour to win record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero in 90% of London - shock poll

Labour is set to storm to a resounding victory in London at the next general election, a new poll reveals.

Andy Burnham who has sparked a surge in support for Labour in London

PA

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would gain one, Bexleyheath and Crayford from Labour, and only by 28% to 26% so this is far from a certainty.

The Liberal Democrats would hold six constituencies in south west London.

Labour, which has a record 59 MPs in London, could match this and may beat Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North, the poll suggested by 36% to 18%, which would take it to 60 MPs.

How London’s political map may look, according to a poll in October

Electoral Calculus

Pollsters in July predicted a very different political map of London at the next election

Electoral Calculus

It could also oust Mr Philp in Croydon South, but by 30% to 28% so this outcome is also very close to call.

MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results.

It does not take into account the prominence or popularity of individual candidates.

The results, though, would mean there would be no Conservative or Green MP in Inner London or 90% of constituencies in the capital.

Green leader Zack Polanski whose party has fallen in the polls

PA Wire

“He is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to re-establish Labour as the dominant political force in London,” he said.

“This contrasts with the dire position of the party earlier in the year under Sir Keir Starmer.”

The poll put Labour on 34% in London, up nine percentage points since July, the Greens down three to 18%, Tories down two to 16%, Reform unchanged on 13%, Lib Dems down two to 9%, Restore up one to 7%, and independents/minor parties down two to 3%.

“The Conservatives may even lose seats compared with their poor showing at the last general election."

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is struggling to make inroads into London

PA Wire

Nationally, the survey put Labour on 353, a Commons majority of 56, Conservatives 90, Reform 81, Lib Dems 70, SNP 28, Greens four and Restore one.

Kevin Craig, chief executive of PR firm PLMR which commissioned the poll, said: “Andy Burnham’s leadership is resonating with voters.

“He speaks in plain English and explains what the Government is doing simply and directly.”