Strait war risk exaggerated: US official

A SHARED GOAL: The US and China do not want conflict, US diplomat Michael DeSombre said, adding that Xi was a ‘rational actor’ who calculates strategic risks

Global investors are overestimating the likelihood of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait by next year, a senior US diplomat told CNBC on Thursday, adding that robust cross-strait deterrence and the prospect of severe repercussions would prevent Beijing from acting.

Markets have exaggerated reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has instructed the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by next year, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael DeSombre said.

“I actually think the most mispricing is with regard to Taiwan, where actually I think people are overpricing the risk of something happening across the Taiwan Strait,” DeSombre said, expressing confidence that diplomatic and military deterrence would hold.

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael DeSombre speaks during a ceremony in Washington on July 27.

Photo: EPA / Yonhap

“Both China and the US don’t want conflict, and we’re able to deter conflict,” he said, adding that market anxieties are “priced at too high a level.”

Xi is a “rational actor” who calculates strategic risks, he said.

“To the extent that he realizes that it can’t be done, or it can’t be done without substantial consequences, it won’t happen,” he added.

Separately, the US Department of State on Thursday described China’s activities in the east of Taiwan as deeply destabilizing and urged Beijing to stop pressuring Taipei, following a report of a Chinese maritime militia boat in the area in August.

“[The US] remains concerned by China’s activity east of Taiwan,” a department spokesperson said. “China’s actions are deeply destabilizing. By asserting authorities around maritime areas that Taiwan has peacefully administered for over 70 years, China only exacerbates tensions and undermines the peaceful resolution of issues that it claims to seek.”

They also urged Beijing to engage in meaningful dialogue with Taipei’s democratically elected authorities.

The statement followed a Reuters report on Thursday that a Chinese maritime militia boat, the Minfudingyu 07902 (閩福鼎漁07902), had been spotted by Apex Aviation more than 30 nautical miles (55.6km) off Hualien County in mid-August.

The Minfudingyu, which Apex identified as a fishing vessel that doubles as a Chinese maritime militia vessel, was accompanied by a China Coast Guard cutter and a research vessel at the time, Reuters said.

The Ministry of National Defense said China was using law enforcement and scientific research as pretexts to expand its activities without triggering a conflict, create the impression that it had jurisdiction over the waters and challenge Taiwan’s maritime law enforcement authority.

The Coast Guard Administration said all the Chinese vessels in question were operating outside Taiwan’s restricted waters and that it had monitored their movements throughout and responded appropriately.