Michael Taube: With Alexander out of the Toronto mayoral race, Brad Bradford is in the driver’s seat

Former Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander unexpectedly joined the Toronto mayoral race on July 29. The first question that most political observers probably asked themselves was, “Why is he doing this?” His announcement this week that he’s dropping out opened the door to a new question: “Why did he bother doing this?”

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Alexander’s short-lived mayoral campaign will likely rank among one of the most pointless endeavours that someone with a bit of name value in Canada has ever taken on.

He had no past experience in municipal politics, including the role he was running for. He may have been a cabinet minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper, but he only served one term as a federal MP. And while his experience as a diplomat in the foreign service is undeniable, it wouldn’t have given him the slightest advantage in terms of being a big-city mayor.

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Moreover, his limited number of campaign policies were largely ignored and his polling numbers — which were never great to begin with — largely fell into single digits. Nanos Research’s Oct. 6 poll put Alexander at a paltry four per cent, well behind Mayor Olivia Chow (52 per cent) and Coun. Brad Bradford (43 per cent).

It’s not like he wasn’t warned about this. I wrote in the Post on Aug. 20 that Alexander “should do the right thing and get out” of the race before the Aug. 21 deadline, or “his political ambitions in any capacity will be wiped out for good.” More recently, I described his candidacy as “quixotic” and repeated a previous theme: “I implore him to quit.”

Did I expect him to listen to me? Of course not. I did expect him to listen to reason. Much in the same way that Toronto Sun columnist Brian Lilley and others probably hoped he would, too.

He didn’t listen for a long time but mercifully dropped out on the first day of advance voting and less than three weeks before election day. As political strategist Warren Kinsella, who previously advised Bradford, noted on X, “His name will still be on the ballot, and higher up, as well. That is a problem that can’t be remedied.”

What was the point of this exercise in futility? That’s the biggest mystery of them all.

“Long before I decided to run, lots of people, who are keener political observers of Toronto than I, said that Bradford could not win given his track record, given his approach, given the way he was likely to campaign,” the now-former mayoral candidate told the Toronto Star. “I don’t think he’s the ideal candidate, but if I had confidence that Chow was on the path to being replaced, I very well might not have run.”

Let’s break this down. The task of beating Chow was never going to be easy in progressive-leaning Toronto. People obviously have their own opinions about the pros and cons of Bradford’s candidacy, as they do of the current mayor and Alexander himself. Yet there was no definitive undercurrent of politically astute individuals in Toronto or elsewhere suggesting that Bradford “could not win.”

The only comment that was universal was to avoid a repeat of the 2023 mayoral byelection. Chow won because there were too many high-profile candidates muddying the political waters. While that didn’t occur in this election, Alexander’s campaign had a similar effect for a few weeks. The only campaign it truly affected was the one he unnecessarily criticized: Bradford’s.

Which brings us to another pertinent question: “Can Bradford win in light of this important development?” Yes, it’s possible. It’s late in the game, to be sure. Yet even though Alexander’s contingent of voters seemingly shrank to a bare bones number, this still means a not-so-insignificant number of Torontonians aren’t fully committed to a candidate just yet. Voters could start to look at things differently in a two-person race, which is a unique political dynamic involving two directly competing political visions.

Bradford must therefore emphasize Chow’s disastrous record as mayor on a point-by-point basis. This includes: tax hikes, wasteful spending, a lack of focus on crime and safety — and more. Conversely, Bradford’s campaign team needs to prioritize his plans for the city. His policy proposals include a one-year property tax freeze, hiring 1,000 new police officers, removing restrictions on grocery store competition, making crime and safety a top priority and, most recently, his vision to “modernize” the city budget by separating Toronto’s operating and capital budgets once and for all.

This won’t be easy for Bradford and his campaign team. Every day, and every vote, must count in what will likely be a close election on Oct. 26. With Alexander finally out of the way, the task of beating Chow is now doable. Let’s hope they succeed.

National Post

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