Hong Kong’s third-quarter GDP grows, but external risks persist: Paul Chan

Hong Kong’s economy continued to expand in the third quarter of this year, driven by strong exports and tourism, the city’s finance chief has said, while warning of risks including the war in the Middle East and inflation.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also reiterated his confidence that the economy would grow by between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent this year. He was speaking during a Legislative Council debate on the city’s first five-year plan and annual policy address.

He noted that gross domestic product grew by 5.1 per cent in the first six months of this year, the strongest half-year performance in five years.

“Recent figures show that Hong Kong’s economy continues to expand in the third quarter of this year,” he said.

Chan said he was confident the economy would meet the government’s full-year growth target, but it would continue to monitor potential risks.

“Of course, unfavourable external factors persist: volatile situations in the Middle East may spill over into energy markets and global inflation,” he said.

“We will also closely monitor inflation trends in major economies, the policy directions of major central banks, as well as the risks arising from trade protectionism and the global artificial intelligence boom.”

Chan said the value of merchandise exports surged by 52 per cent year on year in July and August, extending a run of double-digit growth to 19 months.

He added that visitor arrivals continued to rise, with preliminary figures showing a 9 per cent year-on-year increase in the third quarter, bringing the total for the first nine months of this year to about 41 million.

Chan also highlighted strong stock trading activity and an active initial public offering market. Funds raised through IPOs exceeded HK$388 billion (US$49.4 billion) in the first nine months of 2026, already surpassing last year’s full-year total.

He said the economy’s positive momentum had been hard-won and Hong Kong should stay focused on high-quality development in its next phase.

The legislature began a three-day debate on the two policy documents on Wednesday, with the first session focusing on the economy, finance, aviation, logistics and trade.

Chan’s remarks followed calls from lawmakers for the government to strengthen Hong Kong’s roles as a global offshore renminbi hub, gold trading centre and aviation hub.

Finance sector lawmaker Ronick Chan Chun-ying said he expected the Northern Metropolis to drive wider use of offshore renminbi, citing growing demand for green infrastructure and financing for innovation and technology.

He urged the government to introduce more offshore renminbi products, such as dual-currency cross-border bonds with Shenzhen, and support high-quality innovation and technology companies in issuing renminbi bonds.

These measures could attract investment to the megaproject while advancing Hong Kong’s development as an offshore renminbi centre, he said.