More Lula, or back to the Bolsonaros? Brazil votes in cliffhanger election

Brazilians headed to the polls on Sunday facing a stark choice: another four years under veteran leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or a return to the right under Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

It is the final electoral battle for Lula, who turns 81 next week and is hoping to pull off a dramatic turnaround after coming in second to the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of voting.

Final polls showed the two candidates neck-and-neck.

Sunday's run-off will determine whether Brazil remains one of Latin America's few leftist nations or joins a regional swing to the right championed by US President Donald Trump, who has not openly endorsed the son of his ally.

Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, has pitched himself as a bulwark against US interference and democratic backsliding and promised to expand social protections.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has vowed to crack down on crime and slash government spending, while handing Brazil to "the Lord Jesus Christ."

"The time has come for real change," he declared after voting in Rio de Janeiro. "Brazil can't stand another four years like this."

"This is about renewal, enough of the same old thing," said 67-year-old retiree Eduardo Viana, adding that Lula "says he governs for the poor... just look, people can't even go to the supermarket."

Bolsonaro presents himself as more moderate than his firebrand father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his 2022 election loss.

After its first-round defeat, the left swung into action with massive rallies declaring "Never Again Bolsonaro," where protesters recalled the former president's chaotic handling of the Covid pandemic, devastation of the Amazon rainforest and cuts to public programmes.

Deforestation of the world's largest rainforest has hit its lowest level in four decades under Lula.

Yet, as the El Nino weather phenomenon fuelled fires that choked Amazonian cities with smoke in recent weeks, climate change barely featured in the campaign.

Rain bucketed down across Brazil on Sunday, which may affect voter turnout following a record abstention rate during the first round earlier this month.

Polling stations will close at 5pm Buenos Aires time (2000 GMT), and results are expected within hours.

Fed up with crime

Lula, revered for social welfare programmes that lifted millions out of poverty, made a dramatic comeback to office in 2022 elections after a corruption scandal saw him jailed for over 18 months.

The charges, annulled on procedural grounds, have continued to haunt him.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, and lifted millions out of hunger, but voters complain about the cost of living and a sense of insecurity.

Lula's social policies became a point of tension as he expanded welfare programmes during the campaign. Critics want the government to rein in spending.

"Even if people call it handouts, for us, they were an enormous help. Because anyone who has ever gone hungry knows not to take these programmes for granted," said Walter dos Santos, 56, who lives in Lula's native northeastern Brazil, a bastion of support for the president.

The day after

After his first-round blow, Lula revamped his social media strategy and even bought his first mobile phone.

A fierce social media battle drew in Meta, parent company of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, which Lula's campaign accused of favouring his opponent with "algorithmic manipulation."

Meta denied this but acknowledged that some of Lula's campaign ads had been mistakenly deactivated due to technical errors.

Whoever wins, Brazil faces a bruising election aftermath.

"If the left wins, it faces four years with a hostile Congress and threats of impeachment," said political analyst Thomas Traumann, referring to sweeping right-wing legislative gains.

"If the far right wins, it will be a government of retribution, directed at the Supreme Court," hated by the right after its conviction of Jair Bolsonaro over the attempted coup.

Flavio Bolsonaro has said he will liberate his father and seek the impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the case against the ex-leader.

"Brazil needs more time with Lula, mainly because Brazil is about to fall into the clutches of fascism," said editorial assistant Maria Fernanda Elisbao, 21.