The bull market celebrates its four-year birthday as markets continue to rise

The S&P 500’s (SP500) current bull market, which began in October 2022, marked its four-year anniversary in mid-October 2026 after delivering a cumulative return of 117.1% through early in the month. That advance ranks among the stronger performances recorded through the fourth year of multi-year uptrends.

Of the six prior S&P 500 bull markets that lasted at least four years, five continued higher in their fifth year. The average return during those fifth years was 13.5%, with gains ranging from 6.8% to 36.6%. The sole exception was the advance that began in October 1957, which posted a 19.2% decline in its fifth year before ending.

Across those longer cycles, the median duration stood at 5.7 years, the median return through year four was 72.2%, and the median cumulative gain reached 177.2%. Average figures were higher still, at 7.3 years, an 89.1% return through year four, and a 253.3% cumulative advance. The present cycle’s 117.1% return through its fourth year exceeds both the historical median and average for that stage.

Roth Capital Partners compiled the data through October 8, 2026, using S&P 500 daily closes. While the historical record shows that bull markets reaching this milestone have typically produced additional gains, outcomes have varied and past patterns do not ensure future results.

Market Tracking Funds: (DIA), (DDM), (UDOW), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (FXAIX), (VFIAX), (VFFSX), (SWPPX), (QQQ), (QQQM), (SQQQ), (TQQQ), (QLD), and (QID).