The Six Pack: Picks for USC vs. Indiana, Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State and Tom Fornelli's Week 11 lock

Trust The Process in Week 11 as the push toward the final 12-team College Football Playoff continues

Nov 12, 2026 at 9:43 am ET • 10 min read

The College Football Playoff is dominating the conversation around college football right now. It's a combination of the CFP formally announcing it will expand to 24 teams next season and the rankings now being released every Tuesday night.

As you'd expect, the talk is rarely about how everybody thinks expansion is great and that the committee is doing a wonderful job. No, expansion is destroying the sport, and the committee is rigged and is just a puppet for the SEC and unseen corporate overlords.

I understand where it's coming from, even if I find it all a bit silly. When the committee has a bunch of SEC teams ranked ahead of teams from other leagues with similar records, it's easy to yell SEC bias. Particularly after we've seen the Big Ten win three straight national titles.

But the explanation for it is pretty simple. The last three seasons don't matter. The 2026 season does. Here's a look at how every conference has performed this season in nonconference play when we remove FCS opponents, as well as how they've performed in nonconference play against Power Four competition.

Conference	Noncon Record vs FBS	Win%	Noncon Record vs P4	Win%
SEC	28-2	.933	10-2	.833
Big 12	24-8	.750	6-7	.462
Big Ten	31-11	.738	4-10	.286
ACC	19-13	.594	6-12	.333
Mountain West	12-17	.414	1-9	.100
American	16-25	.390	1-12	.077
Pac-12	9-16	.360	0-12	.000
Sun Belt	14-26	.350	0-15	.000
C-USA	6-24	.200	0-10	.000
MAC	7-29	.194	1-17	.056

What do you notice?

When the committee releases its rankings and judges team strength, those nonconference data points will carry weight. The fact that the SEC is 28-2 in nonconference overall and 10-2 against other P4 leagues is why its teams tend to be ranked higher than teams from other leagues. What most people have ignored while being angry about the SEC is that the Big 12 has three teams in the top 12, while the Big Ten has only two.

Is that Big 12 bias, or is it the fact that the Big 12 went 24-8 in nonconference and 6-7 against the P4, while the Big Ten is only 31-11 and a weak 4-10 against the P4?

I understand the frustration with how things sometimes work out in head-to-head results relative to where teams are ranked. I don't like the overall process the committee uses to rank teams. That said, I see a lot of people complaining that the results have to matter, while they then get angry about the results clearly mattering in which league is getting more teams ranked than the others.

Games of the Week

No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana: Poor Indiana, getting knocked down five spots on its bye week. The committee clearly did not like what it saw from the Hoosiers in practice this week. Of course, Indiana's latest ranking doesn't change a lot for the Hoosiers. The situation is, and has been, that this team needs to continue winning both for a chance at winning the Big Ten and to reach the College Football Playoff for a chance to defend its title. Obviously, it has not played to nearly the same standard this season as last year, but the bye week probably came at a great time.

The Hoosiers have been dinged and haven't had a week off since the season began. The bye gave them a chance to get healthier, which could be a big benefit for Josh Hoover, who was clearly dealing with something in the last few games. Now they're home, rested, and have a chance to add to their resume against a USC team coming in ranked No. 18. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the best effort Indiana has shown in a Big Ten game this season, and the forecast, which is calling for temperatures in the low-40s at kickoff, probably works to their benefit as well.

But I'm still skeptical about the offense, even with Hoover healthy. However, I do believe in the defense. Everybody thinks Ohio State stinks now, but the Ohio State team that held Indiana to 19 points had Julian Sayin until Indiana knocked him out of the game late. I expect they'll do a pretty decent job against USC's offense as well.

USC went on the road and beat Penn State this season, but followed it up with an absolute no-show performance on the road at Wisconsin the following week. The last time we saw this team, they were beating Ohio State, and while it was a big win, it wasn't the Ohio State with Julian Sayin. So I don't have a ton of faith in USC's ability to go on the road here, play in the cold, and look like a great offense. Not against this Indiana defense. The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) at FanDuel

No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State: You guys want to watch two teams score a bunch of touchdowns with me on Saturday night? I know the total is very high, but have you seen these teams play lately? The only Oklahoma State games that did not feature at least 60 points scored this season were the season opener against Tulsa and a 59-0 win over Murray State. Their seven games against Power Four opponents have averaged 78.14 points per game.

Texas Tech hasn't been much different lately. Last week, this Red Raiders team found itself in a 53-48 shootout against West Virginia. While the QB change to Thomas Castellanos has brought more explosiveness to the offense overall, the Red Raiders saw an uptick in points scored even before it. Their last four games have averaged 75 points. The more I see of this team, the more convinced I become that the drop-off on defense from last season is steeper than I realized early in the season, and those results probably said more about the schedule than the Red Raiders themselves.

Oklahoma State's offense is operating at an extremely high level right now, and you know the Cowboys are looking at this Saturday night home game as a huge opportunity. They want to send a statement, and the only way to do that is to score a lot of points because their defense hasn't shown much ability to not give them back.

We've seen a lot of old-school Big 12 shootouts for the last few weeks. I suspect we'll see another here. The Pick: Over 72.5 (-115) at FanDuel

Lock of the Week

Michigan at No. 16 Oregon: I've caught heat from Michigan fans in recent weeks for my skepticism about the team's defense. It's not that I think it's bad; it's that I believe their overall results are skewed by the fact they haven't played many good offenses. Indiana is the best offense they've seen, and as I discussed earlier, it's not like the Hoosiers have been out here lighting up the scoreboard every week.

Seriously, the second-best offense Michigan has faced is either Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State or Oklahoma. I'll let you argue amongst yourselves which one you think is best.

Now Michigan is coming off a home loss to rival Michigan State, has fired its offensive coordinator, and is flying across the country to face a resurgent Oregon team. The Ducks fired their offensive coordinator after a 21-10 loss to Illinois and have since scored 75 points in two games against Northwestern and Ohio State. They've followed this crazy formula of "what if we just get the ball to our most talented players and see what happens," and by golly, it's worked! The Ducks are also back in the playoff conversation, as they're currently the highest-ranked three-loss team in the rankings.

But Dan Lanning is no fool. He knows that the rest of Oregon's schedule isn't great from a resume perspective. Simply winning games won't be enough. Oregon has to win and look really good doing it. So even if the Ducks build a good lead and the Michigan offense continues to struggle, Oregon won't look to stop putting points on the board. The Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 24.5 (-108) at FanDuel

Under of the Week

Nebraska at Rutgers: The vibes around these programs are horrible right now. Rutgers announced this week that Greg Schiano will return next year, though I don't know that anybody feels great about it. Meanwhile, Nebraska is having another second-half collapse, and has lost four straight after a 5-0 start. Matt Rhule fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen after last week's loss to Illinois (the lesson seems to be that if you're an offensive coordinator, don't lose to Illinois).

But while I understand the decision, I don't know that I believe playcalling was the real problem for the offense. I don't know that changing the playcaller will fix the results. I also wonder about the state of mind of Matt Rhule and the Huskers. They need to win one more game to get to a bowl, and this road game against Rutgers is clearly their best chance to get it. They finish with Ohio State and at Iowa.

I can't help but believe Nebraska feels that pressure and plays a little tight here. It won't be about winning big as much as it'll be about winning, period. And their defense is phenomenal. I have no doubt they can limit the Rutgers offense and will do everything they can to avoid mistakes that could put the outcome in jeopardy. So expect hand-offs. Lots and lots of hand-offs. The Pick: Under 52.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Favorite of the Week

Oregon State at No. 24 Boise State: The shine has come off Oregon State a bit here recently. After fielding one of the most exciting offenses in the country to open the season, the Beavers have come back down to Earth. They were held to 22 points by Fresno State, and last week Texas State kept them to 21. We took the under in that game here last week and won it, but even I was surprised to see a bad Texas State defense hold the Beavers to 21. I figured it would be the Texas State offense struggling on the road as it has most of the season.

So now Oregon State's on the road against a Boise State team that looks to be the class of the Pac-12. There is some concern about starting QB Maddux Madsen, who missed last week's 64-38 win over Colorado State, but I'm optimistic Madsen will be back under center this week. And if he isn't, backup Max Cutforth has thrown seven touchdowns in basically six quarters since replacing Madsen. Regardless, the bread and butter of Boise's offense is the run game, and Oregon State has not been able to stop the run at all this season. The Broncos will lean on it, and it should help them pick up this win and cover at home. The Pick: Boise State -13.5 (-112) at DraftKings

Upset of the Week

No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU: It's not that I don't think LSU can win this game. It can. It has one of the best rosters in the sport, and it'll be at home at night. The talk about how tough it is to play at Tiger Stadium isn't just talk; there are legit results to back it up. It's an extremely difficult place to win.

No, the reason I'm picking Texas as my upset is that I believe they can win this game too, and so, so more often than the price suggests. The fact of the matter is, while Texas is far from a perfect team, it's proven time and again this year that it can win in these spots. It beat Ohio State. It beat Tennessee. It beat the Ole Miss team that beat LSU, and last week it went on the road and beat Missouri. Compare that to LSU this year. We've reached the point where the best resume win the Tigers have right now might be Clemson! Texas A&M is 4-5, and the Mississippi State team LSU beat didn't have Kamario Taylor. The Bulldogs haven't won a game this season without him. Just last week we saw the LSU offense struggle to finish drives and put points on the board against Alabama, and now they have to get off the mat and go again against a defense that is better than the good Alabama defense they struggled with last week. Maybe this week they finish the drives in the end zone. Or maybe they don't. The Pick: Texas (+154) at DraftKings

Bets	Last Week	Season	Units
Games of the Week	0-2	10-10	-1.32
Lock of the Week	0-1	5-5	-0.54
Upset of the Week	1-0	3-7	-1.05
Overall	2-4	25-35	-10.26