NFL MVP odds: Joe Burrow surpasses Josh Allen for top spot entering Week 10

There's a new leader in the MVP conversation with nine weeks to go in the NFL regular season

Nov 12, 2026 at 10:13 am ET • 7 min read

Once again, the race to win NFL MVP has become a literal arms race. While Kenneth Walker III was an early favorite, the current front-runners to win the award are quarterbacks, which shouldn't come as a surprise, as a quarterback has won the award each year since 2013. Unless Walker or Jaxon Smith-Njigba go on a ridiculous run over the season's final two months, the NFL's most prestigious individual honor will once again be given to a quarterback. 

There's a very good chance that the next NFL MVP will ultimately be one of the following five quarterbacks who currently have the highest odds to win the award. There's also a decent chance that this year's winner will be a first-time recipient, although Josh Allen may have something to say about that. 

Current NFL MVP odds (via DraftKings) 

10. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (+6500)

Gibbs currently has the best chance of any non-quarterback to win league MVP. If that happened, Gibbs would be the first running back to win MVP since Adrian Peterson did so back in 2012. 

In addition to being third in the NFL in rushing and tied for second in touchdown runs, Gibbs paces the league in rushes and first-down runs (55). Gibbs is currently on pace to rush for 1,800 yards, which would be the third-most prolific rushing season in Lions history behind only Barry Sanders' 1997 and 1994 campaigns. 

T7. QB Drake Maye, Patriots (+4500)

So far, Maye's season hasn't lived up to last year's MVP runner-up campaign. He's currently tied with Justin Herbert for interceptions thrown after Maye threw three interceptions during last Sunday's lopsided loss to the Green Bay Packers. 

While he currently has decent odds of winning MVP, something drastic would have to happen for Maye to actually become the first Patriots player to win the award since Tom Brady. 

T7. QB Jared Goff, Lions (+4500)

For whatever reason, Goff's name is often overlooked in discussions regarding the league's top quarterbacks. That might change, however, if Goff and the Lions continue at their current pace. 

After a 2-2 start, the Lions have ripped off four straight wins and have gotten to within a half-game of first-place Chicago in the NFC North. Goff, who oddly threw for just 170 and 176 yards in Detroit's last two wins, can strengthen his MVP argument with a winning performance this weekend against Maye's Patriots. It's safe to wonder, however, if Gibbs could cancel Goff out in terms of MVP votes, and vice versa. 

T7. QB Patriots Mahomes, Chiefs (+4500)

The two-time league MVP, in addition to having Walker and Travis Kelce at his disposal, will now have Josh Downs to throw to after the Chiefs acquired the former Colts wideout before the trade deadline. That addition should help Mahomes' MVP odds moving forward.   

While he doesn't lead the NFL in any major statistic, Mahomes is nonetheless in the middle of the MVP conversation again, and for good reason. He's once again the catalyst of the Chiefs' offense and is playing his best football of the season. 

In Week 7, Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns (while completing 73.2% of his passes) in a close loss to the Broncos. Last Sunday, Mahomes completed a whopping 74.2% of his throws while throwing two touchdowns in a rout of the Jets. 

6. QB Caleb Williams, Bears (+1800) 

Williams' injury (which sidelined him for three games) hurt his MVP case. His four interceptions in last Sunday's overtime win over the Buccaneers didn't help, either. 

Despite those warts, Williams still has a puncher's chance at joining Walter Payton as the only Bears player to win MVP. It will likely come down to how successful Williams is from a win-loss standpoint. If Williams plays well down the stretch and helps lead the Bears to a division title (and a possible No. 1 seed), he should have a pretty strong MVP case. 

5. QB Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+800)

While they didn't acquire any offensive players, the Jaguars loaded up on defense before the trade deadline by acquiring safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux. Those additions should obviously make the Jaguars even better, which in turn should help Lawrence's MVP chances. 

No Jaguars player has ever won the league MVP, but that could soon change. It would probably take the Jaguars winning the AFC's No. 1 seed, though, which is possible given their transactions before the trade deadline. 

Lawrence has been incredibly efficient this season. Eight percent of his attempts have been touchdowns (an NFL high). He also leads the league in average yards gained per pass attempt and yards gained per pass completion. Lawrence is doing all this while also taking care of the ball. 

4. QB Jordan Love, Packers (+600)

Three weeks into the season, the Packers were 1-2, and there were rumblings about Matt LaFleur's job security. That's a distant memory now as Green Bay currently sits at 6-3 following Sunday's convincing win over the Patriots. 

Love's play since Week 3 has been the biggest reason for Green Bay's resurgence. No one has thrown for more yards this season than Love, who could join fellow Packer quarterbacks Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as a league MVP. 

Love is taking advantage of an emerging receiving corps that is quickly becoming one of the league's best. Matthew Golden and Christian Watson (whose 17.9 average yards-per-catch leads the NFL) have become a formidable duo, while Tucker Kraft is showing no ill effects from last year's season-ending knee injury. 

3. QB Brock Purdy, 49ers (+425)

Somehow, the former Mr. Irrelevant continues to be overlooked. For all of his success since becoming the 49ers' starting quarterback, Purdy still isn't usually put in the same stratosphere as some of the league's other top-tier quarterbacks. That will have to change if Purdy continues to play well and the 49ers keep winning games. 

Some of the hesitancy to anoint Purdy as an elite quarterback may stem from the narrative that he plays with so many talented players. While that is true, it's also true that Purdy has often had to play without many of those players due to injuries. He's recently been without wideouts Mike Evans, Christian Kirk and Deebo Samuel.

Purdy has been one of the main constants this season for the 49ers, who would be the NFC's top seed if the playoffs started this week. He'll need more of his wideouts to get healthy, however, if he wants to keep pace in the MVP race. Purdy has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions in the 49ers' last three games, which is a byproduct of the team's injuries at receiver. 

2. QB Josh Allen, Bills (+275)

The 2024 league MVP, Allen was the front-runner for the first half of the regular season. And while he no longer has the top spot, Allen still has a very good shot at winning his second MVP in three years. 

Buffalo's success as a team — they are 7-1 and would be the top seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today — and Allen's prowess as a runner should keep him in the MVP race until the very end. Bears running back D'Andre Swift is the only player with more rushing touchdowns this season than Allen's nine. 

Allen's passing touchdown total, however, could be the main reason why he doesn't win league MVP. His 12 touchdown passes are currently tied with Geno Smith for the 15th highest total in the NFL. Allen has thrown 11 fewer touchdown passes than the player that has supplanted him as the MVP front-runner. 

1. QB Joe Burrow, Bengals (+175) 

Burrow could have won league MVP in 2024, but the award ultimately went to Allen largely because of team success, or lack thereof. The Bills went 13-4 during the regular season and came within a game of the Super Bowl. The Bengals missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record despite Burrow leading the league in both passing yards and touchdown passes. 

Defense was Cincinnati's Achilles heel then, but their current unit has helped the Bengals get off to a 6-2 start and have put Burrow in position to possibly win his first league MVP. 

It also helps that Burrow has elite connections with wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The trio has been torching opposing defenses on a weekly basis. Burrow, in particular, has been on fire, as he currently leads the NFL in completion percentage (74%) and touchdown passes (23). 

Cincinnati's offensive line has also undergone a rapid improvement. Burrow no longer has to pick himself up off the ground after seemingly every throw. The line's improvement has undoubtedly given him more confidence to look downfield more often. 

While his situation has improved, Burrow's success is also largely the result of being an elite player in his prime. Nearing 30 and in his seventh season, Burrow has the athleticism of a younger player and the experience of a seasoned veteran. He also still possesses the poise under pressure that conjured up Joe Montana comparisons several years ago.