Marko Kolanovic calls Trump’s energy ceasefire a ‘con,’ Tom Lee sees potential inflation relief

President Donald Trump's announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine drew sharply different reactions from Wall Street strategists Sunday, with former J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic questioning its credibility while Fundstrat's Tom Lee pointed to the potential benefits of lower oil prices.

"This weekend everyone saw burning tankers, oilfields, airports. This energy ceasefire seem to be another con," Kolanovic wrote on X, expressing skepticism about Trump's claim that both countries had agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure.

Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, offered a more optimistic assessment, although he qualified his reaction.

"Positive if true," Lee wrote on X. "Higher oil prices has been a global source of inflation pressures and consumer misery."

The contrasting reactions followed Trump's declaration that an agreement had taken effect immediately.

"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on social media, without providing details about its duration or enforcement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy subsequently challenged Trump's account, telling Axios reporter Barak Ravid that the announcement had caught him by surprise. "The ceasefire announcement was news for me," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine would accept an energy ceasefire if Russia agreed. He asked Trump to clarify when such an agreement would begin.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine's electricity grid, power plants and natural gas infrastructure, while Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian oil refineries and export facilities. The attacks have disrupted energy supplies and contributed to higher fuel prices, particularly for diesel, which is essential to trucking, agriculture and industrial production.

Trump has criticized Ukraine's refinery attacks for contributing to rising diesel prices in the United States. His administration recently eased sanctions on Russian diesel exports following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, prompting criticism from Zelenskyy that the move could provide Moscow with additional revenue to finance the war. Axios reported that Trump made the decision after Ukrainian officials resisted repeated U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian refineries.

For investors, a credible ceasefire could help ease pressure on global energy prices, potentially reducing inflation and transportation costs while improving the outlook for fuel-intensive businesses. However, Trump's announcement remained unconfirmed by Russia, and Zelenskyy's response suggested that Ukraine had not formally agreed to the arrangement. The uncertainty leaves energy markets weighing the possibility of lower prices against the risk that attacks on critical infrastructure will continue.

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