Latvia's pro-European ruling party wins election as populists gain ground

Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List party has won the Baltic state's parliamentary election, preliminary results showed Sunday.

With more than 99.9 percent of votes counted, the United List led with 35.4 percent, according to state television.

In the 100-seat parliament, Kulbergs' United List party secured 42 seats, a record for the post-independence history of the former Soviet republic, local media reports.

The results point to a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course for Latvia.

Kulbergs, who became prime minister only in May, said the result was higher than expected and matched the lead shown in exit polls. "That means people truly want change," he said, adding that this meant "economic growth" and "a future for (Latvia's) children."

His coalition, which pre-election polls had suggested would weaken, will not survive in its current form. One member looked set to lose its seats, and others fared worse than they had hoped.

Populist parties, however, also performed strongly, helped by support from Latvia's Russian-speaking minority, after a campaign dominated by fears over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living.

Security at the centre of the debate

More than four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, security remains central to Latvian politics. A member of NATO and the European Union since 2004, this small Balkan state sees Russia as its main security threat and has sharply raised defence spending in response.

"Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region," Kulbergs said. "That is the main task."

Rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline also featured prominently in campaign debates.

Most parties expected to enter parliament support both high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv. The exception is the Sovereign Power party, which opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending. Having campaigned on cost-of-living issues, it looked set to finish third.

However, it has been criticised as pro-Russian by its detractors, and most major parties have ruled out working with it.

Latvia First, a conservative party run by a property magnate often compared with US President Donald Trump, looked set for second place.

Both populist parties were seen as benefiting from changes in voting patterns among the Russian-speaking minority who make up a third of the population.

They had long rallied around the Harmony party, which is broadly seen as pro-Russia and was at one time the country's biggest party.

However, Harmony's support collapsed dramatically in the last election, held shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and it lost its parliamentary representation.