US midterms 2026: Democrats eye Congress takeover as anti-Israel progressives seek power

Two years after his presidential election victory, US President Donald Trump faces his first electoral test since returning to the White House, with Republicans fighting to maintain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

For American voters, the elections are primarily about the cost of living, gasoline prices, immigration and the ongoing war with Iran. For Israel, however, the implications could extend far beyond Trump's political fortunes. A new group of Democratic candidates, many of whom accuse Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip and demand an end to US military aid, have a realistic chance of entering Congress.

Those tensions are particularly evident in Michigan, where Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens announced just two days before the elections that she would support Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers rather than her own party's nominee, Abdul El-Sayed. The decision followed a bitter confrontation over Israel and antisemitism, turning one of the state's most important races into a battle over the future identity of the Democratic Party.

Is Trump about to lose both chambers of Congress?

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, including two seats being contested in special elections, and governorships in 36 states are up for grabs on Tuesday. Americans will also elect thousands of representatives to state legislatures and local offices.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, where two independent senators caucus with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control.

One of the most prominent forecasts published ahead of the vote came from Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst. In his final forecast, based on a combination of statistical models, polls, and election data, Enten estimated that Democrats had a 92% chance of winning a House majority and a 71% chance of securing control of the Senate.

His numerical projection gave Democrats 237 House seats to the Republicans' 198 and a 52-48 Democratic majority in the Senate.

Enten emphasized, however, that these were probabilistic forecasts rather than guaranteed results, noting that Republicans had previously outperformed polling expectations in several states.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last week also highlighted Trump's difficulties. The president's approval rating stood at just 32%, while Democrats held a nine-point lead in the national congressional voting preference poll after undecided voters' preferences were factored in.

The picture, however, is not uniform. While forecasts suggest a substantial possibility of a change in House control, the battle for the Senate depends on a relatively small number of close races.

According to the Cook Political Report, seven Senate contests were rated as toss-ups on the eve of the elections, with neither party holding a clear advantage: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

A Democratic victory in both chambers would not, of course, remove Trump from the White House. He would remain president, but the second half of his term could unfold under a hostile Congress that could block legislative initiatives, complicate budget approvals, and launch investigations into his administration.

Democratic control of the Senate would also make it possible to delay or prevent confirmation of senior appointments sought by the president.

The battle in Michigan: Israel fractures Democratic unity

One of the most contentious races is taking place in Michigan, a state Trump narrowly won in the 2024 presidential election.

Competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters are former Republican congressman Mike Rogers and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a physician.

El-Sayed, an Egyptian-American Muslim, has become one of the most prominent voices in the Democratic camp critical of Israel. He accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, supports restrictions on US military assistance and sharply criticizes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government's policies.

But disputes over his positions on Israel erupted within the Democratic Party itself over the weekend.

Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed in the Democratic primary in August, had been scheduled to participate in a unity event with her party's nominee on Sunday.

Instead, she appeared alongside Rogers at a church in Detroit and announced that she would vote for him.

Stevens, regarded as a staunch supporter of Israel, sharply criticized an advertisement produced by an independent political organization backing El-Sayed.

The advertisement linked the cost of living in the United States to American aid to Israel, and Stevens described it as antisemitic. She demanded that El-Sayed disavow its messages and address previous statements he had made about Israel.

El-Sayed clarified that his campaign had not been involved in producing the advertisement and that he disagreed with its content.

Nevertheless, the exchange intensified, and their planned joint appearance was canceled.

"And that is why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate," Stevens announced in a video she published.

The move sparked outrage among Democrats, particularly because it came just two days before the vote and could undermine the party's efforts to retain the Senate seat.

Trump, meanwhile, quickly welcomed Stevens's decision and presented it as evidence that even Democrats were unwilling to support El-Sayed.

The confrontation extends beyond the question of who will be elected to the Senate.

It raises a broader question: Can support for Israel still serve as a unifying force within the Democratic Party, or has the issue become one of its central fault lines?

The candidate who answered 'Yes, but...' when asked about Israel's right to exist

The political controversy intensified following an interview with El-Sayed aired on CBS's 60 Minutes on Monday, in which he faced questions about his positions on Israelis and Palestinians.

The interviewer asked whether Palestine had a right to exist.

"Yes," El-Sayed replied.

He was then asked whether Israel had a right to exist.

"Yes, if there is a shared understanding..." he began to answer.

When the interviewer sought clarification about that qualification, El-Sayed explained that he believed in equal rights to peace, dignity, and self-determination for Palestinians and Jewish Israelis alike.

"If the Palestinian people and the Israeli people decide that they want two states for two peoples, and they decide that on equal terms, I support that," he said.

"If they decide that they want one state, shared in a different way, I support that too."

El-Sayed did not, therefore, reject Israel's right to exist. However, unlike his unqualified answer regarding the Palestinians, he linked his response concerning Israel to agreements between the two peoples.

Despite the political controversies, the latest polls continued to show El-Sayed ahead.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, he led Rogers by about four percentage points.

A New York Times/Siena University poll published ahead of the election, with polling conducted through November 1, gave El-Sayed 53% support compared with Rogers's 42%.

However, most interviews for those surveys were conducted before Stevens announced her endorsement of his Republican rival, making it impossible to determine how the move would affect the vote.

The Democratic Party's new generation: Beyond criticism of Netanyahu

While the Michigan contest remains open, several new progressive candidates are virtually assured of entering Congress from districts considered Democratic strongholds.

Many are no longer limiting themselves to criticism of the Netanyahu government's policies. Instead, they are demanding fundamental changes in US policy toward Israel, including halting weapons shipments, conditioning security assistance, imposing sanctions and, in some cases, supporting boycotts.

One of the most prominent figures is Brad Lander, the former New York City comptroller who defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary for New York's 10th Congressional District.

Lander, a Jew who describes himself as a liberal Zionist, enjoyed the support of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Although he supports the possibility of a Jewish and democratic state existing alongside a Palestinian state, he is also among the sharpest critics of Israeli policies in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Just last month, Lander was briefly detained by security personnel after participating in an olive harvest with Palestinians and activists from Rabbis for Human Rights in the West Bank village of Nahalin.

The IDF maintained that the activity took place in an area requiring prior security coordination, a claim the organizers disputed.

"The occupation is a crime under international law. Picking olives is not a crime under any law I know," Lander wrote following his detention.

Lander also accused Israel of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, claiming that settlers had forced Palestinian communities from their homes.

Israel rejects those sweeping allegations, and the Foreign Ministry accused Lander of attempting to stage a political provocation during his visit.

In Michigan's 13th Congressional District, state Rep. Donavan McKinney is running after defeating incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary.

McKinney supports ending US military assistance to Israel and accuses it of committing genocide in Gaza.

In an interview with Detroit's public radio station, he said he could not justify sending billions of dollars to fund weapons while residents of his district struggled to afford healthcare and basic infrastructure.

Another new figure is expected to enter Congress from New York: Darializa Avila Chevalier, who defeated longtime Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the Democratic primary for the state's 13th Congressional District.

Avila Chevalier, a progressive activist and Columbia University graduate, participated in pro-Palestinian protests on campus and was present at a demonstration in Times Square on October 8, 2023, just one day after Hamas's attack on Israel.

The demonstration drew fierce condemnation because some participants voiced support for the attack.

Asked about her presence at the event, Avila Chevalier explained that she had attended out of concern for Palestinian rights and the Israeli military response that had begun in Gaza.

She maintains that, as an American citizen and taxpayer, the principal way she can influence events in the Middle East is by challenging how the US government uses public funds to finance Israel's military operations.

From a doctor who treated patients in Gaza to a boycott supporter

In New Jersey's 12th Congressional District, Dr. Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon who served in the US military and participated in medical relief efforts in the Gaza Strip during the war, is expected to win the election.

Hamawy has made his experiences in Gaza central to his campaign.

He accuses Israel of committing genocide, supports a comprehensive arms embargo and an end to US military assistance, and has also criticized the Iron Dome missile defense system.

According to Hamawy, working as a physician in war zones convinced him that treating victims was not enough and that he needed to work in Washington to change the policies he believes contributed to the situation in Gaza.

Hamawy has previously made clear that he opposes antisemitism and intends to represent Jewish voters in his district, including those who disagree with his positions on Israel.

In California's 34th Congressional District, Angela Gonzales-Torres is challenging incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez.

The contest pits two Democratic candidates against each other, reflecting an internal struggle over the party's ideological direction.

Gonzales-Torres supports ending weapons transfers to Israel and has presented opposition to military assistance as one of the reasons she entered national politics.

Her positions also include support for the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, known as BDS.

Other prominent candidates in the progressive camp include Claire Valdez of New York, Melat Kiros of Colorado and Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania, who won their primaries and are competing in strongly Democratic districts.

Kiros, a 29-year-old democratic socialist, defeated longtime Rep. Diana DeGette and accused Israel of genocide.

Valdez, who is affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, is also backed by the political camp associated with Mamdani.

Some of these candidates have begun preliminary discussions about forming a joint congressional organization informally known as "The Bloc," according to a report by Axios.

The initiative is intended to strengthen the influence of the progressive left over Democratic Party leadership, particularly if Democrats win control of the House.

The emerging group could join seven progressive lawmakers currently associated with the "Squad," including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar.

That does not mean, however, that all the new candidates have already joined the group or are committed to identical positions on every issue.

What does this mean for Israel?

The possibility of a strengthened progressive camp is raising questions in Jerusalem and among pro-Israel organizations in the United States about the future of bipartisan support for Israel.

For decades, Israel enjoyed relatively broad support from both American political parties, even when serious disagreements emerged between governments in Jerusalem and administrations in Washington.

In recent years, however, and particularly following the war in Gaza, Israel has become an increasingly divisive issue in American politics.

Within the Democratic Party, a struggle is underway between veteran lawmakers seeking to preserve the security alliance with Israel and new candidates who believe Washington should condition its support on changes in Israeli policy.

The immediate consequences could include more legislative proposals to restrict weapons shipments, opposition to aid budgets, demands for stricter oversight of the use of American weapons, and increased pressure to impose sanctions on Israeli individuals and entities.

However, that does not necessarily mean the next Congress will eliminate US security assistance to Israel.

Many Democrats still support the alliance with Israel; not all progressive lawmakers share identical positions, and ending assistance would require overcoming significant political and legislative obstacles.

The more important issue may be longer-term.

As more Democratic candidates are elected after openly calling for an end to aid to Israel, pressure could grow on the party's 2028 presidential candidates to adopt more critical positions toward Israel.

In other words, the question is not only how newly elected members of Congress will vote next year, but also what place support for Israel will occupy in the Democratic Party's future platform.

Trump in final campaign speech: 'Don't let communist jihadists rule'

Trump chose to conclude his campaign on Monday with an unusual event in Washington, near the reflecting pool at the Lincoln Memorial, which his administration renovated.

During the event, the president devoted much of his remarks to construction and restoration plans in the American capital, but also launched a sharp attack on Democrats and urged his supporters to turn out and vote.

"The Democrats want to blow all of this up by electing communist jihadists," Trump said, repeating his accusations against progressive candidates.

The president again devoted part of his remarks to Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, whom he had attacked at a series of campaign rallies in recent weeks.

Trump claimed that El-Sayed had engaged in political activity at extremist mosques and accused him of associations with rhetoric describing the United States as the "House of Satan."

He presented no evidence during the speech to substantiate those allegations.

"We don't want a jihadist in our Senate," the president said.

Trump portrayed the elections as a battle over America's identity.

"When you vote, remember that a party that hates America must not be allowed to rule over the people who built this country."

The president acknowledged that, historically, the sitting president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.

"For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms," he said.

"But we've given it a very serious shot."

At the same time, Trump reiterated his promise to provide every adult American citizen with a $5,000 payment if Republicans retain control of Congress.

The president did not present a detailed plan for financing the proposal.

The Iran war enters the voting booth

One of the most significant parts of Trump's speech from Israel's perspective concerned the war with Iran.

Trump, who has faced criticism over the economic costs of the campaign and its effects on energy prices, sought to portray the military operations as a major achievement of his administration.

"We are winning against Iran, and winning easily," the president said.

He claimed that Iran's military had been severely damaged, that its ability to produce missiles had diminished and that the country was experiencing inflation of more than 300%.

The figures were presented as the president's claims and were not independently verified.

Trump also claimed that oil prices had fallen by $10 on Tuesday, describing it as the sharpest one-day decline in history.

"I hope people understand that when they go into the voting booth," he said.

"Because we had to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon."

The president then addressed the nature of the war itself, attempting to downplay the scale of the ongoing military operations.

"If you think we're talking about a war, this isn't a war. We've conducted very few combat operations," he said, adding that the United States had destroyed the Iranian air force and severely damaged the regime's leadership.

According to Trump, Iranian officials had asked the United States to stop targeting senior regime figures, and Washington was prepared to comply.

"We eliminated their first-tier and second-tier leaders, and they asked us, 'Please stop doing this.' And we will stop," he said.

The president added that talks with Iran were progressing well and linked the possibility of reaching an agreement to the decline in oil prices.

His remarks came amid Qatari-mediated diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Iran, while the Pentagon was also preparing for the possibility of renewed military strikes.

Vice President JD Vance clarified on Tuesday that the United States had not set Tehran a deadline for signing an agreement and that he and Trump were optimistic about the possibility of reaching a deal.

The timing illustrates the extent to which the campaign against Iran has become a domestic political issue in the United States.

Trump is seeking to present damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program as a security achievement, but rising living costs and gasoline prices following the war have become political vulnerabilities for Republicans.

What happens the morning after?

Election results could emerge gradually overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, but some close races may require additional hours, or even days, of vote counting before their outcomes are determined.

If Democrats win a majority only in the House of Representatives, Trump will have to govern with a divided Congress.

If they also take control of the Senate, their ability to delay his initiatives, exercise oversight of the administration, and block appointments will increase significantly.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, Trump will be able to continue advancing his policies with congressional support, although even then, there is no guarantee that every one of his initiatives will win the backing of all Republican lawmakers.

For Israel, the picture is even more complicated.

Even if Trump continues to demonstrate his affection for Israel, the next Congress could include a larger number of lawmakers opposed to US military assistance and the Israeli government's policies.

Their immediate influence may be limited, but their election itself could signal a shift in the terms of the internal Democratic Party debate over relations with the Jewish state.