Amanah’s report card doesn’t warrant Mat Sabu’s confidence in Melaka, says analyst

A political analyst has dismissed Amanah president Mohamad Sabu’s optimism about winning seven seats in the Melaka polls this Saturday as “wishful thinking”, saying the party’s electoral record does not justify such confidence.

Speaking to FMT, Global Asia Consulting analyst Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri asked whether Mohamad was “reading electoral intelligence or simply entertaining himself with political imagination”.

He noted Amanah’s performance in 2021, when it won just one of the nine seats it contested in Melaka. In the 2022 Johor election, meanwhile, it secured only one of the 16 seats it contested.

In the 15th general election (GE15), it won eight of 54 parliamentary seats compared with 11 of 27 in 2018. In the six state elections in 2023, it won eight of the 31 state seats it contested.

“However, the more recent results are hardly encouraging. In the 2026 Johor election, Amanah managed just one victory from 19 contests, followed by a complete wipeout in Negeri Sembilan where it lost all nine seats.

“These are not opposition allegations. They are electoral results,” Zaharuddin said.

Early this month, Mohamad said his confidence in the party’s prospects was based on young voters’ support for Pakatan Harapan (PH), as well as the coalition’s decision to field more young candidates in the state polls.

Zaharuddin said Amanah vice-president Adly Zahari remained the party’s strongest prospect in Bukit Katil, bolstered by his experience as a former chief minister.

However, he said Adly “survived” the 2021 election with a majority of just 1,057 votes and captured the Alor Gajah parliamentary seat in GE15 with a majority of 890 votes.

“If Amanah’s most recognisable leader cannot claim an overwhelming electoral advantage, how can its president confidently guarantee six additional victories?” he asked.

Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) was also sceptical about Adly’s chances, pointing to the defeats of DAP’s Loke Siew Fook and PKR’s Aminuddin Harun in Negeri Sembilan.

She said “the tide was turning” against such popular leaders, particularly in places where cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) was strongest.

“I don’t think voters are confident in Amanah. I still hear the same complaint, which is that voters are not sure what Amanah is about, especially vis-à-vis Malay politics,” she told FMT.

Fellow IIUM analyst Lau Zhe Wei also attributed Amanah’s low chances in Melaka to the BN-PN narrative of Malay unity, which he said had heavily tilted the political landscape against PH as a whole.

“PKR and DAP are also affected by the BN-PN cooperation. It is not that Amanah is weak – it was never strong to begin with,” he told FMT.

Lau said that as long as BN and PN cooperated, PH had “little to no chance of winning”, even in the next general election. He said Amanah had failed to counter PAS’s brand of conservative Islam with its own progressive political stance, despite originating as a PAS offshoot.

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