Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prediction, odds, time: Week 5 'Thursday Night Football' picks from advanced model
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SportsLine's model has revealed its Tampa Bay vs. Dallas picks for 'Thursday Night Football' in Week 5 with Baker Mayfield (thumb) still out for Tampa Bay
• 2 min read
The Week 5 NFL schedule kicks off with a 'Thursday Night Football' matchup between NFC squads as the Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas moved to 2-2 with a victory over Houston in Week 4. The Bucs remain winless after falling to the Packers in Week 4 without quarterback Baker Mayfield (thumb). Mayfield is expected to remain out this week, giving rookie Jalon Daniels a second start. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have won six of their last seven home meetings with the Bucs and are 13-2 all-time at home versus Tampa. Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Buccaneers odds, after being as high as 10-point favorites, while the over/under is 48.5. The Over is 4-0 for Dallas this season and 2-2 for the Bucs. Before making Cowboys vs. Buccaneers picks or 'Thursday Night Football' predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zoned in on Cowboys vs. Bucs. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bucs vs. Cowboys:
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers spread | Cowboys -8.5 |
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers over/under | 48.5 points |
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers money line | Cowboys -469, Buccaneers +360 |
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers picks | |
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers streaming | Amazon Prime |
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Top Cowboys vs. Buccaneers predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Bucs vs. Cowboys, the model is going Over 48.5 points at betting apps. Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense and last in yards allowed per play. Tampa Bay's numbers are a bit better, but the Bucs still rank in the bottom half of the league in many key defensive categories. Also, the last matchup between the two saw 50 combined points scored.
Tampa Bay has split its four games Over and Under, but Dalls is 4-0 to the Over, creating a strong trend to lean on. Also, this is just Tampa's second road game, and it allowed a season high of 33 points in its first. The model projects 56 combined points in this matchup as the Over hits 67% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make 'Thursday Night Football' picks
In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.
Who covers in Bucs vs. Cowboys, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cowboys vs. Bucs spread you need to jump, all from the model that's on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.
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