What Italy need in Turkiye, and what finishing bottom would cost the Azzurri

ENSCHEDE, NETHERLANDS - JUNE 15: Head coach of Italy Roberto Mancini attends before the UEFA Nations League 2022/23 semifinal match between Spain and Italy at FC Twente Stadium on June 15, 2023 in Enschede, Netherlands. (Photo by Claudio Villa/Getty Images)

Italy travel to Turkiye as last place in Nations League Group A1, and reports from Italy frame the fixture as an early play-off to avoid finishing last.

As noted by La Gazzetta dello Sport, France and Belgium are already pulling clear after one round, with Italy and Turkiye both on zero points. Winning the group looks unrealistic, so third place has become the target, and even that carries conditions.

What the rules mean for Italy

Under UEFA’s revised format, the two best third-placed sides across League A stay up automatically and remain seeded for the Euro draw. The two worst third-placed teams go into play-offs against League B runners-up but keep their seeding. The two best fourth-placed sides also face play-offs, while the two worst fourth-placed teams are relegated outright.

Finishing fourth would therefore mean a likely drop to League B and, crucially, losing top-seed status for future World Cup and European Championship draws.

A draw in Bursa would be useful but defeat would force a rethink, particularly with France away next.

Italy have finished bottom of a group before, at the 2010 World Cup under Marcello Lippi.