AP Top 25 poll: Most overrated, underrated and two teams to crash out of final rankings

From Texas sitting too low at No. 5 to USC looking highly overrated at No. 14, we break down the biggest misses in the preseason Associated Press poll

Aug 17, 2026 at 2:11 pm ET • 5 min read

You know the college football season is finally just around the corner when the annual preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll drops.

While there will always be critics about whether preseason polls are more harmful than helpful, especially in this current player-movement era, they make for great discussion topics. There's just something about seeing 25 teams listed in order that evokes a visceral reaction from fans, journalists and everyone else associated with the sport.

The Big Ten led the way in this year's preseason poll, taking the top two spots with No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Oregon. Reigning national champion Indiana wasn't too far behind at No. 6. The SEC countered with two top-five teams (No. 3 Georgia and No. 5 Texas) and five top-10 teams overall. 

With any ranking, especially one before any games are even played, there are teams that jump out as either underrated or overrated. These are the teams that fit that mold in the 2026 preseason AP top 25:

Underrated: No. 5 Texas

It was a bit surprising, frankly, to see Texas land at No. 5 and not receive a single first-place vote. 

Is it skepticism that Steve Sarkisian can get the most out of one of the most expensive rosters in the country? 

Do AP voters also believe quarterback Arch Manning is overrated the way multiple industry sources did in our CBS Sports story last week? 

Perhaps it is lingering regret over ranking Texas preseason No. 1 a season ago only for UT to miss the playoff. The Longhorns have a stacked schedule -- they play five top 11 teams and seven top 25 teams total -- but on paper, at least, this is a team talented enough to compete for a national championship. The voter skepticism will be put to an early test Week 2 against No. 1 Ohio State.

Overrated: No. 14 USC

If you want to buy into Lincoln Riley and USC, go for it. I just won't be one of those people, not after watching Riley squander some elite talent in Los Angeles through his first four seasons at USC. 

There are reasons to be optimistic around USC, including Jayden Maiava's return and a spending spree on its freshman recruiting class. But I'm skeptical that turning to Gary Patterson, who last worked as on-field coach in 2021, to run the defense proves to be some magical fix. 

This six-game slate in the heart of the Big Ten schedule will define USC's season: No. 2 Oregon on Sept. 26, No. 17 Washington on Oct. 3, at No. 18 Penn State on Oct. 10, at Wisconsin on Oct. 24, No. 1 Ohio State on Oct. 31 and at No. 6 Indiana on No. 14. 

Underrated: No. 7 Miami

This feels low for a team that came awfully close to winning a national championship in January. 

Yes, that CFP runner-up team lost quite a bit, especially quarterback Carson Beck, defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. and offensive tackle Francis Mauioga. But there is A LOT of returning talent such as receiver Malachi Toney and running back Mark Fletcher plus incoming transfer quarterback Darian Mensah and five-star offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell. 

With an extremely manageable schedule -- the Hurricanes only have one top 25 team (at No. 4 Notre Dame) -- Miami should win the ACC and have a good shot at clinching a top 4 seed and first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. 

Overrated: No. 8 Texas A&M

Speaking of Miami, the team it beat on the road in the first-round of last year's CFP lands one spot behind at No. 8. The Aggies had a dream 10-0 start to the 2025 season, featuring thrilling wins over Notre Dame and South Carolina, before it came crashing down in home losses to in-state rival Texas and Miami. 

Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko had to replace his offensive and defensive coordinators (Collin Klein, Jay Bateman) and a program-best 10 NFL Draft picks from last year's team. A&M gets No. 5 Texas again at home this year, but its other three highest-ranked opponents (No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 11 LSU and No. 13 Alabama) all come on the road. 

Quarterback Marcel Reed headlines a talented and expensive ($40 millionish) roster, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Texas A&M trip up a time or two with a more challenging schedule and just miss the playoff cut in 2026. 

Underrated: No. 17 Washington

The Huskies are my favorite team outside the top 15 to make the College Football Playoff. 

Washington has a potential star at quarterback in Demond Williams -- there are two top 15 teams who were very interested in stealing him out of Seattle -- and one of the more underrated coaches nationally in Jedd Fisch. 

The key will be whether Washington can improve upon its 9-4 record in 2025 with a schedule that includes No. 2 Oregon, No. 6 Indiana, No. 14 USC, No. 18 Penn State and No. 22 Iowa. A 3-2 record through those five games could be enough to get Washington into the CFP. 

Two preseason top 25 teams who will finish unranked

Last season a whopping seven preseason top 15 teams weren't included in the final rankings. Even more wild: two of the top three preseason teams (No. 2 Penn State and No. 3 Clemson) were included in that group, with the Nittany Lions firing head coach James Franklin midway through the season. 

In 2024, two preseason top 10 teams (Michigan and Florida State) finished the season unranked. 

That trend happened in 2023 (No. 6 USC), 2022 (three teams), 2021 (three teams) and 2020 (No. 6 LSU). In fact, in 18 of the last 19 years at least one preseason AP poll top 10 team has finished outside the final rankings.

Who could it be this season?

No. 8 Texas A&M and No. 9 Ole Miss could be popular picks. The reasons for A&M are detailed above, while it is understandable to think the Rebels could take a step back without head coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. It makes sense, too, with the SEC going to a nine-game conference schedule that teams beating each other up more and one falls all the way out. 

I buy into that theory but think No. 10 Oklahoma is a better candidate to finish unranked. Oklahoma was a playoff team a year ago but its offense was a problem late in the season and ultimately led to its first-round playoff exit against Alabama. The Sooners have a lot of returning talent and it is certainly possible that quarterback John Mateer takes a big leap and the offense flourishes. The schedule is brutal, though. The Sooners play at No. 15 Michigan on Sept. 12, at No. 3 Georgia on Sept. 26, No. 5 Texas on Oct. 10, No. 9 Ole Miss on Nov. 14, No. 8 Texas A&M on Nov. 21 and No. 25 Missouri on Nov. 28. A few things go wrong, or Mateer gets banged-up again, and that's a 7-5 team that finishes unranked. 

One other team that makes sense to not finish in rankings is No. 25 Missouri. Las Vegas has Missouri as only a 6.5 win total, and the under is one of my favorite picks within the SEC. The Tigers feel like an obvious regression candidate after going 8-5 in 2025.