Labor and the Greens improve in Newspoll and Resolve and One Nation drops

Two federal polls taken last week (Newspoll and Resolve) have gains for Labor and the Greens and drops for One Nation. The total One Nation and Coalition vote was 48% in both Newspoll and Resolve (down one in Newspoll and down three in Resolve).

I had expected Labor to be adversely affected by the Reserve Bank’s September 29 interest rate hike. Voters may be blaming Donald Trump and the Iran war more.

Seven weeks before the Victorian election on November 28, a Redbridge poll has the Coalition continuing to dominate, leading Labor by 56–44. The Greens are at a record 16%.

In the United Kingdom, Labour held former PM Keir Starmer’s seat at a byelection last Thursday against a challenge from the Greens.

Federal Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted October 5–8 from a sample of 1,241, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (up two since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 28% (down two), the Coalition 20% (up one), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 9% (down two).

No two-party estimate was given by either Newspoll or Resolve, but the primary vote swings in both polls would benefit Labor after preferences.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points from a record low to -24 (60% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Angus Taylor’s improved four points to -11 (47% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Pauline Hanson’s was down two points to -9 (52% dissatisfied, 43% satisfied). Hanson is down eight points in the last two Newspolls, while Taylor is up six.

This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line. This Newspoll is Albanese’s equal second lowest net approval, matching an early June Newspoll.

In the traditional two-way preferred PM question, Albanese led Taylor by 44–39 (previously 42–41). In a three-way forced choice, Albanese had 45% (up one), Hanson 30% (down two) and Taylor 25% (up one).

Resolve poll

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted October 6–10 from a sample of 2,250, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (up one since the early September Resolve poll), One Nation 25% (down two), the Coalition 23% (down one), the Greens 12% (up one), independents 6% (steady) and others 5% (up one).

Albanese’s net approval was steady at -18 (54% rated his performance bad and 36% good). Taylor’s was down two points to +7 (41% good, 34% bad). Hanson’s was down six points to +4 (45% good, 41% bad).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 32% (up three), Hanson 26% (up one) and Taylor 22% (up one).

On what is most responsible for rising cost of living costs, 46% blamed the federal government (up six since March), 26% global factors (up nine) and just 4% the Reserve Bank.

David Shoebridge was elected Greens leader on September 30, replacing Larissa Waters, who had resigned owing to ill health.

In this poll, 41% said they were not aware of this leadership change and didn’t know Waters was the previous leader, 19% were not aware but knew Waters was the previous leader and 40% were aware. Awareness of the change was even lower with Greens supporters, at only 36%.

Waters’ net likeability was +5, while Shoebridge’s was -3. But 55% were familiar with Shoebridge, while only 50% were familiar with Waters “even after she had spent nearly 18 months as leader”.

YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll for News24, conducted September 29 to October 6 from a sample of 1,505, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (up one since the mid-September YouGov poll), Labor 25% (down one), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 15% (up one), independents 5% (down one) and others 6% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a two-point gain for One Nation. They led the Coalition by an unchanged 52–48.

Albanese’s net approval was up one point from a record low to -28 (61% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied). Taylor’s net approval was down five points to a record low -17 (51% dissatisfied, 34% satisfied).

Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 40–39 (previously 41–37). He led Hanson by 50–40 (previously 50–38).

By 63–37, respondents disagreed with Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claim that interest rate rises are primarily due to the Middle East conflict.

Victorian Redbridge poll

The Victorian state election is on November 28. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted October 2–8 from a sample of 1,008, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up one since the early September Redbridge poll), Labor 24% (steady), One Nation 24% (down one), the Greens 16% (up one to a record high) and all Others 6% (down one).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by an unchanged 56–44. Although Labor led One Nation by 55–45, the Coalition’s 30% primary vote would put them into the final two in the vast majority of the 88 lower house seats.

Overall preferences would be likely to favour the Coalition whether their opponent in a seat was Labor, One Nation or the Greens. On the 56–44 Coalition two-party lead over Labor, they would win a majority of lower house seats and not need One Nation.

Since the Redbridge poll taken after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July, Carroll’s net favourability was down three points to -18 (37% unfavourable, 19% favourable). Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was up four points to +17 (35% favourable, 18% unfavourable).

In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 28%, Carroll 19% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering 8%. Wilson had led Carroll by 32–19 two-way in July.

By 41–33, respondents thought Wilson and the Coalition had not done enough to deserve to win the next election. But they were much more negative on Carroll and Labor (58–23 not done enough).

The Redbridge poll has been included in the Victorian poll graph below. While Redbridge is Labor’s worst pollster, there’s no sign of an improvement.

Victorian Morgan seat analysis

Morgan has analysed its Victorian polls conducted between March and September from a total sample of over 7,700. This analysis gives Labor 40 of the 88 lower house seats, the Coalition 31, One Nation 11 and the Greens six. Labor and the Greens lead the Coalition and One Nation by 46 seats to 42.

This projection is far better for Labor than is implied by the results of recent Victorian polls. The fieldwork for this analysis was conducted over seven months. No estimates of individual seat outcomes are provided.

UK byelection and NZ election update

Last Thursday UK Labour held Starmer’s seat at a byelection, defeating the Greens by 45.2–32.8. The Greens vote was up 22.4% since 2024, but a left-wing independent had won 18.9% in 2024.

I covered this byelection for The Poll Bludger, and also wrote about three past and upcoming Canadian provincial electoral events and the October 27 Israeli election.

I wrote about the November 7 New Zealand election for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Wednesday. The left-wing bloc had a 2.1-point lead in a Reid Research poll, the first poll with a left lead since June. A Verian poll had the right holding a 3.4-point lead. Opportunity would win the balance of power in both polls.