These horses will win the VRC Derby and Coolmore Stud Stakes

Japanese runner Stinger Glass has been scratched from Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup on vets’ advice as racegoers turn their attention to Saturday’s VRC Derby Day.

Stinger Glass was withdrawn on Friday after leg scans showed it was at heightened risk of injury, following the scratching of Saint George on Thursday. It means Future History, trained by Greg Hickman and ridden by Jamie Melham, gains a start in the race that stops a nation.

But for those heading to Flemington on Saturday, we have dissected the group 1 VRC Derby and group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes to give you a head start.

Race 7: $3m Group 1 VRC Derby, 4.20pm

The favourites: Sydney raiders Cormier (by sire Maurice) and Stormy Marco (by Wootton Bassett) sit at the top of the markets, but almost by default. They finished third and fourth in the group 1 Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick last week behind smart filly Promixa Dea and many are rating that as the strongest form. Cormier has drawn better in three, but Stormy Monaco has the Chris Waller-James McDonald polish to counteract barrier 15. Distance is a query.

The threats: True Rebel won the group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) at Flemington last week, and, traditionally, that has been a hot lead-up race. Not sure about this year. He’s sired by sprinter Rebel Dane, which is a concern, and drawn horribly in gate 16. King Snitz (by Snitzel) won the group 2 Norman Robinson (2000m) by a nose from Skua (by Ghaiyyath), which looked to be the B-grade form. Except, this year there are no A-graders. Both have a realistic chance.

The roughie: Can make a case for half the field, so cast the net wide. Cignetti looked strong coming from well back in the Norman Robinson, while Murshidi, Icy You and True Tone ran one-two-three in the Geelong Classic. Cignetti is by sprinter Super Seth, while Mushidi is by Japanese stallion Maurice and True Tone is by Dundeel. Maybe breeding doesn’t matter? Honestly, it wouldn’t be a total shock if 150-1 pop Meet The Prince ran a drum, and it couldn’t win an Echuca Maiden.

VRC Derby trifecta: 1, 2, 8/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Race 6: $2m Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, 3.40pm

The favourite: The Next Episode (Ciaron Maher-Mark Zahra) looked enormous when he bloused them on the line in the group 2 Danehill Stakes (1100m). Has speedy filly Natural Fling covered and will love the extra 100m. Handles the Flemington straight, and relishes soft ground if rain comes.

The threats: Well-bred colt St Gotthard (Waller-McDonald) and smart filly Satono Glow (John O’Shea and Tom Charlton-Ben Melham) bring the best of the NSW form. If we draw a line through Warwoven, who blew them away in the Caulfield Guineas, the Sydneysiders are superior.

The roughies: I’m a big fan of Nick Ryan’s gelding Doubt Time. He is untapped and could cause a shock upset. Likewise, Bjorn Baker’s Paradoxium. If he settles in front, he might be able to hold off the charge of the light brigade late.

Coolmore Stud Stakes tips: 1st St Gotthard (No.5), 2nd The Next Episode (No.1), 3rd Doubt Time (No.11), 4th Paradoxium (No.2)

Russell says: Sometimes you have to back history. Chris Waller has won six of the past 13 Coolmore Stud Stakes. He’s got the formula right. With McDonald on board, St Gotthard can make it seven.

Coolmore Stud Stakes trifecta: 1, 5 / 1, 2, 5, 11/ 1, 2, 5, 11, 12, 14

VRC Derby Day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 5. 2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9. 3rd leg: 3, 5, 1, 9. 4th leg: 1, 3, 4, 5.

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