Ofer Winter, unification of Arab parties, shake up Knesset seats, push RZP below threshold - poll

The official entry of Ofer Winter into the political arena and the unification of three Arab parties are creating a shake-up in the political system, the latest poll published by Maariv revealed on Friday.

The bloc of Zionist opposition parties, weakened by one seat, now stands at 59 seats, while Arab parties together strengthened to 13 seats, according to the poll conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4ALL.

The data shows that Winter’s entry has created greater complexity within the coalition bloc. Without him, the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu receives 43 seats, while with him it rises to 48 seats. Winter, whose People of Israel party receives five seats in the poll, pushes the Religious Zionism Party led by Bezalel Smotrich below the electoral threshold.

Another interesting figure: none of the parties in the “third bloc” crosses the electoral threshold, and together with Religious Zionism, they account for around 8% of the vote, equivalent to about 10 seats, that are effectively lost.

The poll also shows that the unification between Hadash-Ta’al and Balad strengthens the bloc of Arab parties. The three-way merger gives them eight seats, in addition to the five seats Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, received.

The changes are evident both in the coalition bloc, where Otzma Yehudit loses one seat and drops to eight, and in the opposition bloc, where Yashar falls by one seat to 25, while B’yachad rises by one seat to 15. However, the changes are minor.

Overall, the coalition bloc stands at 43 seats, and when Winter’s party is added, at 48, one seat fewer than in the previous poll. Meanwhile, the Zionist opposition bloc stands at 59 seats, one seat fewer than in the previous survey.

Religious Zionism (3%), The Zionist Home-The Reservists (2%), the Economic Party (1.5%), and Blue and White (0.6%) do not cross the electoral threshold. The percentage of undecided voters in the current poll stood at 11.5%.

The latest poll results indicated that the complete Knesset composition would be as follows:

Yashar: 25 (-1)

Likud: 20 (Unchanged)

B'Yachad: 15 (+1)

Democrats: 10 (Unchanged)

Yisrael Beytenu: 9 (-1)

Otzma Yehudit: 8 (-1)

United Torah Judaism: 8 (Unchanged)

Hadash-Ta'al and Balad: 8 (+2)

Shas: 7 (Unchanged)

People of Israel, headed by Winter: 5 (New)

Ra'am: 5 (Unchanged)

Israelis dissatisfied with education system, concerned with content

Ahead of the start of the school year, the Maariv poll found that an overwhelming majority of Israelis (74%) are dissatisfied with Israel’s public education system, compared with 70% who were dissatisfied in August 2023.

Only 18% said they were satisfied, compared with 23% in 2023, while another 8% had no opinion, compared with 7% previously.

A majority of Israelis (62%) who have children in Israel’s education system, from kindergarten through 12th grade, are concerned about the introduction of content into their children’s schools that does not align with their values and worldview.

By contrast, 28% said they were not concerned, while 10% did not know.

The concern is shared among people from all political camps. The most concerned are voters of Arab parties (80%), followed by opposition voters (61%), while 57% of those intending to vote for coalition parties also expressed concern.

Among Jewish Israelis, the most concerned are secular Israelis (72%, compared with 19% who are not concerned), while the least concerned are religious Israelis (41%, compared with 50% who are not).

Netanyahu falling behind Eisenkot, Bennett, still leads over Liberman

The poll also found that Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister, with 48% compared with 37%. Naftali Bennett also leads Netanyahu, with 45% compared with 40%.

Against Avigdor Liberman, Netanyahu receives 40%, compared with 37% who believe Lieberman is more suitable for the position.

The poll was conducted from August 16 to 27. A total of 4,116 people were invited to participate, and 506 respondents answered the survey (12%), constituting a representative sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and over, both Jewish and Arab. The maximum sampling error is 4.4%.