News24 | Rand bleeds after US inflation shock

Money markets showed traders upped their bets on the chances of the Federal Reserve delivering another rate rise this month to around 41%, from closer to 20% prior to the inflation data release on Wednesday.

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The rand slumped after data showed US consumer prices rose more than expected last month, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as soon as this month.

The dollar rose 0.68% against a basket of currencies to its highest since April 2025.

When the US raises interest rates, investors earn better returns on dollar investments. By comparison, this makes rand assets less appealing,

Following the US inflation release, the rand spiked to R16.66/$, after trading around R16.45 earlier in the day.

US Labour Department data showed the core consumer price index up 0.3% in September versus economist ‌expectations for a rise of 0.2%. On an annual basis, core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 2.6%, above forecasts for a rise of 2.5%, while the headline rate rose 3.7%, above estimates for a rise of ‌3.6%.

"The reading was hotter than expected, not just with energy but elsewhere, suggesting ‌higher tariffs and conflict-driven disruptions ⁠are bleeding into other categories," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. "Investors are coming to terms with 'higher-for-longer' inflation."

Money markets showed traders upped their bets on the chances of the Federal Reserve delivering another rate rise this month to around 41%, from closer to 20% prior to the data, while cementing the odds of an additional rise in December, according to LSEG data.

Sentiment was already fragile prior to the consumer data, given the renewed strength in oil prices following attacks on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and after Iranian officials told ⁠Reuters they were deploying new tactics to target ships, raising the risk of fresh disruption to ‌energy supplies.

Brent crude futures, ‌which are around their highest in nearly two weeks, were last down 0.06% at nearly $106 a barrel.

Spot gold fell 1.63% to $4,088.96 an ounce.

The euro dropped 0.73% to $1.1117, while the pound fell 0.81% to $1.3145. The Japanese yen weakened 0.35% against the greenback to 158.87 per dollar.

The US 2-year Treasury yields, which are most sensitive to shifts in expectations for inflation and monetary policy, leapt 7.2 basis points on the day to 4.87%.

On Wall Street, all three indexes were trading lower with technology and industrials driving losses while healthcare, consumer staples and energy stocks ⁠were higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.17%, the S&P 500 fell 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%.

More of Wall Street's big banks reported earnings, with Bank of America, which saw profits fall in the third quarter, and Morgan Stanley, which beat expectations for its third-quarter profit thanks to strong ⁠equity trading.

The JSE’s All-Share index ended the day almost a percent lower, with platinum groups Valterra (-5%) and Implats (-4%) among the biggest losers.

Europe's STOXX 600 pared some of the day's gains and finished up 0.47%, while the MSCI All-World index fell 0.77%.