Big Ten basketball preseason poll, predictions 2026-27: Michigan, Purdue overrated; USC, Iowa underrated

Illinois is the favorite to win the Big Ten after reaching the Final Four for the first time since 2005 last season

Oct 6, 2026 at 1:49 pm ET • 5 min read

The 2026-27 college basketball season begins in less than a month, which means preseason predictions and accolades are starting to trickle out before the start of the season on Nov. 1. Illinois was tabbed to win the Big Ten and received 18 first-place votes in the annual media poll conducted by The Columbus Dispatch.

Last season, only two teams (Purdue and Michigan) received a first-place vote to win the Big Ten. That prediction ended up being the right one, as the teams met hours before Selection Sunday in the Big Ten title game. Purdue beat Michigan in the Big Ten championship, but Michigan went on to win six consecutive games after that en route to winning the national title.

Big Ten expert picks: Projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch, starting lineups

Isaac Trotter

This year, three teams received a first-place vote: Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan. Illinois and Michigan State are both expected to open as consensus preseason top 10 teams after bringing back a majority of their respective cores from last season. Michigan State is led by returning All-American guard Jeremy Fears Jr., while Illinois forward David Mirković is expected to be a preseason All-American.

Here is the full Big Ten media poll, followed by the breakdown of overrated and underrated teams and players.

Big Ten Preseason Media Poll

As conducted by the Columbus Dispatch with first-place votes in parenthesis.

Rank	Team
1	Illinois (18)
2	Michigan State (9)
3	Michigan (1)
4	UCLA
5	Nebraska
6	Purdue
7	USC
8	Ohio State
9	Indiana
10	Iowa
11	Wisconsin
12	Maryland
13	Minnesota
14	Oregon
15	Washington
16	Northwestern
17	Rutgers
18	Penn State

Overrated: Michigan 

Predicted finish: 3

Last year, I predicted Michigan to win the Big Ten for a few reasons: the talent on the roster was undeniable and I thought the jumbo frontcourt of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara would provide serious mismatch problems for opponents. I was right in that assessment because last season's Michigan team finished as one of the most dominant national title teams this century.

Coming into this season, I'm lower on Michigan because it lost Dusty May late in the offseason to the Dallas Mavericks and Brandon McCoy Jr. — a five-star freshman who might've been a lottery pick in the 2027 NBA Draft — tore his ACL during the Wolverines' European Tour in Lithuania. The talent on Michigan's roster is still really good, but it's very possible Michigan takes a step back this season. The teams behind them in the polls — especially USC and UCLA — I could see finishing in front of Michigan in the final Big Ten standings. If Trey McKenney takes a Year 2 jump as many expect, Michigan will remain in the mix. However, replacing three lottery talents, another veteran guard in Nimari Burnett and one of the best coaches in the sport will be challenging.

Underrated: USC

Predicted finish: 7

I'm taking a one-way ticket on the Muss Bus and buying into the hype. This is by far Eric Musselman's most talented roster since he took the job at USC back in 2024. Getting back Rodney Rice, Jacob Cofie, and Alijah Arenas — a name to keep an eye on for the 2027 draft — was a massive win for Musselman and his staff.

USC signed three top-30 recruits from the 2026 class: Christian Collins, Adonis Ratliff and Darius Ratliff and added Eric Reibe and KJ Lewis from the portal. As funny as it sounds, the lone concern I have for this USC roster is the fact that there is one basketball. If the Trojans can find a way to get everyone involved, they will be a dark horse in the Big Ten.

Overrated: Purdue

Predicted finish: 6

After being tabbed to win the Big Ten for three consecutive seasons, Purdue was picked to finish sixth. And it still might be too high because of how loaded the top half of the Big Ten will be this season and the fact that Purdue is in the midst of a reset after seeing one of the winningest trios in the modern era (Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith, and Fletcher Loyer) depart the program.

Purdue is returning 38.6% of its returning scoring production, which ranks eighth among Big Ten teams, but there are still question marks surrounding the roster. Caden Pierce, who was Purdue's most notable newcomer, didn't play basketball last season. Omer Mayer, CJ Cox, and Daniel Jacobsen were all key rotation pieces last season but will be asked to take on expanded roles. Purdue could finish behind teams like USC, Ohio State, Indiana and Iowa.

Underrated: Iowa

Predicted finish: 10

The reason I'm still buying into the Iowa hype is what was on display during the NCAA Tournament. Ben McCollum just wins and is one of the best Xs-and-Os coaches in the sport. Yes, Bennett Stiritz and Alvaro Folgueiras — the hero of Iowa's upset win over Florida in the second round of the NCAA Tournament — aren't on the team anymore, but Iowa is returning over 50% of its scoring production. That should be good enough to finish in the top half of the Big Ten.

The breakout candidate on this Iowa roster is Tate Sage, who averaged 6.1 points in 16.2 minutes off the bench last season. He will be slotted into Iowa's starting lineup next to Kael Combs, another returner on the roster who played for McCollum at Drake during the 2024-25 season. Replacing an NBA talent like Stiritz, who can run an offense at an elite level, won't be easy. However, having a coach like McCollum can help offset some of that loss.

Preseason All-Big Ten Team 

The Big Ten released its preseason all-conference team on Monday. Michigan State star Jeremy Fears Jr. was tabbed the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year. Here is the full team.

Player	School
David Mirkovic	Illinois
Andrej Stojaković	Illinois
Pharrell Payne	Maryland
Elliot Cadeau	Michigan
Trey McKenney	Michigan
Jeremy Fears Jr. (Player of the Year)	Michigan State
Pryce Sandfort	Nebraska
John Mobley Jr.	Ohio State
Trent Perry	UCLA
Rodney Rice	USC
Nolan Winter	Wisconsin

Underrated: Nikola Kusturica, UCLA

The Big Ten rolled out an 11-man first team and a player who should be the consensus favorite to win Big Ten Freshman of the Year wasn't on it. Kusturica is UCLA's best NBA prospect since Lonzo Ball and is set to play two years of college basketball because he doesn't meet the NBA's age requirement to enter the 2027 draft.

Kusturica, who last played professionally for FC Barcelona and was a star on Serbia's U17 squad, will be a household name by the end of November. The skilled 6-foot-8 wing has all the makings to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2028. He's going to have a huge season playing for Mick Cronin. After missing out on a handful of high-profile transfer portal targets, getting Kusurica is one heck of a consolation prize.

Overrated: Trent Perry, UCLA

It's hard to single out any player on this 11-player list, but if I had to pick one, it would be Perry just because I think UCLA's best player will be Kusturica. It may take Kusturica some time to adapt to the college game, but when he does, it will be scary. Perry is coming off a breakout season in which he averaged 12.6 points and started 24 games for UCLA. Again, I think Perry is a great player, but if anyone from UCLA is going to end up on first-team All-Big Ten, my prediction is it will be Kusturica.