Opinion: Opinion | A Jolt For Trump? How The US May Be Staring At A 'Blue' Wave

On November 3, Americans will vote in the midterm elections that are held midway through a President's four-year term. They will be voting for all 435 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house, a body similar in status to India's Lok Sabha. There will also be elections in 35 of the 100 seats of the Upper House, known as the Senate. Unlike Rajya Sabha members, senators are elected directly by voters.

Indian state elections are frequently interpreted as a vote about the government in New Delhi, and similarly, American midterms are often viewed as a judgment on the President. Just as the Lok Sabha is elected one district at a time by the first-past-the-post system, so is the US House. As Indian readers know, a party can win a majority of seats with a modest share of the vote; in 2014, the BJP secured an absolute majority of 282 seats with only 31% of the national vote.

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Donald Trump is now in the final two weeks of the campaign and is deeply unpopular. The Democrats are comfortably ahead in all the national surveys, and the media are talking about a "Blue Wave". The evidence now points firmly to a Democratic majority in the House. The only real surprise is the Senate, which was thought to be safe for the Republicans a month ago but is now in doubt. Whether this becomes a wave will be decided in states that Trump won comfortably in 2024.

Decoding The Generic Ballot

The key figure mentioned in the campaign is what is known as the "generic congressional ballot". This type of ballot asks voters to indicate which party they would like to have representing them in Congress without listing any candidates, thereby reflecting the national mood. According to the most recent figures from the Takshashila US Mid-term Election Observer, the Democrats have 49.3% and the Republicans 41.7%. The Democratic point lead is simply the difference between these two figures, amounting to 7.6 percentage points; this is what is understood by a "point". It is frequently confused with a percentage: when the support of the two parties is compared directly, the Democrats have approximately 18% more supporters than the Republicans. The other 9% of voters are undecided or back smaller parties.

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Because a single survey has a margin of error of around three points, poll trackers combine dozens of polls, most of which give the Democratic Party a lead ranging from seven to nine points, which is its biggest lead this cycle.

What A 'Wave' Looks Like

To obtain a majority and to take advantage of a political wave are two completely different matters. To take control of the House, a party needs 218 seats. Since the Republicans currently have a narrow majority, the Democrats only have to win a small number of seats in order to reach that threshold. As for the Senate, the Republicans have 53 seats, which means the Democrats need a net gain of four, the Republican Vice President being able to break a tie when the vote is 50-50.

A genuine wave election cracks the opposing party's traditional strongholds. Recent history sets the benchmark. In 2006, amid strong public opposition to the Iraq war, the Democrats won about 30 House seats and took control of the Senate. In 2010, the Tea Party movement gave the Republicans 63. In 2018, at the first midterm of Trump's presidency, the Democrats won 40. By that historical standard, a genuine blue wave means Democratic gains of 30 or more House seats along with control of the Senate.

The 8-Point Lead

The first barrier is the distribution of votes: since the Democrats are concentrated in large metropolitan areas, their candidates win there by large margins. Any vote that goes beyond the winning margin contributes to the party's total number of votes nationally without producing an additional seat.

The next obstacle is redistricting. In India, the boundaries of the constituencies are determined by an independent Delimitation Commission, whereas in most US states, the party that holds power in the state legislature draws the map to gain a partisan advantage. This is called gerrymandering. The Republicans have control of more state legislatures. In Texas, the map was redrawn halfway through the decade, and this year, a Supreme Court ruling weakened the protections for minority-majority districts in the conservative southern states. California has produced a map that favours the Democrats, but overall, the Republicans are in a more advantageous institutional position. Analysts think that the Democrats now need a national lead of several points just to win half the House.

The Map Is Shifting

The clearest signal is where the parties spend their money, since campaigns spend where they fear defeat.

The leading Republican super PAC for House races, a political fund that can raise and spend unlimited sums, has cancelled over $13 million worth of advertising in four constituencies. This includes some of the suburban areas in Iowa and New Jersey, and that money has been redirected to districts that Trump won by narrow margins. As for the Democrats, they are raising funds with a view to running campaigns in traditional Republican areas that were previously seen as out of reach, such as Miami, the suburban areas of St. Louis, and Little Rock. A party fighting to hold its own ground while its opponent advances is the classic pattern of a wave election.

The same pattern is even more clearly seen in the Senate. The Republicans are now spending heavily in traditional Republican states with $100 million in Texas and more than $90 million in Ohio. They are injecting additional funds into Kansas, South Carolina, and Alaska. They have even allocated $15 million to Nebraska, a state that Trump won by more than 20 points. They have also pulled out of North Carolina, seemingly giving up the contest to Democrats.

The election calculation remains challenging. The Democrats must maintain their position in their closely contested seats in Georgia and Michigan, win North Carolina, and then secure three more from states that Trump won comfortably. It seemed highly unrealistic a month ago; it is now a real possibility.

Read The Signals

Early voting has given rise to talk of a wave. In the United States, nearly all states allow people to vote before Election Day, either in person at early voting centres or by sending in a postal ballot. Nevertheless, each state has its own rules regarding eligibility and its own deadlines. In many states, voters are recorded by party at the time of registration, so it is possible for officials to say how many registered Democrats and Republicans have returned their ballots, though not how anyone voted. At present, registered Democrats are returning their ballots at a higher rate. However, Democrats have in the past depended on postal ballots, while Republicans generally vote in person on Election Day, which is why early figures tend to show a Democratic advantage. The true test will be whether the Democratic early-vote margin runs well ahead of 2018 and 2022.

The fact that there are reports of disputes among members of Trump's inner circle regarding the allocation of funds and the choice of candidates shows that the campaign is under stress, but the changes in spending are the more substantial evidence.

The View From New Delhi

A great deal of the initial idea of a wave was based on one fact that was stated in various ways: Trump's low level of approval. The current spending map is different since both parties are acting according to their own private polling and now regard the seats in Trump's strongholds as up for grabs.

The most probable outcome is a Democratic majority in the House, with the new district boundaries leading to a gain that is less than the figure achieved in 2018, and the Senate could go either way. The outcome would warrant being described as a wave if the Democrats win in Texas, Ohio, or Nebraska; on the other hand, it would represent a clear defeat for Trump and a split decision if the Republicans keep their strongholds in the red states.

A Democratic majority in the House would result in much more rigorous examination of Trump's tariffs and visa policies during his final two years. Yet since both parties on Capitol Hill back protectionist trade policy and immigration restrictions, New Delhi should only expect a change in tone; it will be long before any actual policy changes take place.

(The author is a Research Fellow in the Geostrategy Program at the Takshashila Institution)