Sweeping strikes under the rug: Will Iraq face consequences for Saudi strikes? - analysis

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi doesn’t seem very focused on consequences for the militias that potentially have caused a huge economic headache for the world.

Iraq’s Prime Minister is traveling to Europe. He’s planning to visit Germany and France. Meanwhile, at home, there are questions about why Iranian-backed militias in Iraq continue to carry out attacks on neighboring countries. The latest attack targeted the Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline.

The attack on the pipeline is potentially a disaster for the global economy. “The 1,200 km (745 miles) pipeline has helped Saudi Arabia - the world's largest crude oil exporter - bypass the Strait of Hormuz,” BBC noted. The attack took place on September 11.

Iraq said it had fired a military commander and launched an investigation after admitting the drone attack on its neighbor's East-West pipeline had originated in one of its provinces bordering Iran. Saudi Arabia has previously accused Iran-backed militia in Iraq of targeting its oil facilities,” BBC added.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi doesn’t seem very focused on consequences for the militias that potentially have caused a huge economic headache for the world.

“Prime Minister Mr. Ali Falih Al-Zaidi is conducting, on Sunday, a European tour at the head of a high-level delegation, encompassing both France and Germany, upon an official invitation from the governments of the two countries,” his office said over the weekend. “Mr. Al-Zaidi will meet, during his foreign tour, with the French President Mr. Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Mr. Friedrich Merz, where a range of files and regional and international issues of common interest will be discussed.”

Attack on Saudi Arabia likely to be swept under the rug

One could read this as a statement that all is normal in Baghdad. The attack on Saudi Arabia will be swept under the carpet. It’s not the only security incident in Iraq. Interior Ministry forces also found dozens of drones in western Iraq.

These appear to be drones used by Iranian-backed militias as well. The Interior Ministry is long believed to be infiltrated by elements close to the Badr Organization, which is close to Iran.

As such, this raises questions about whether the ministry wants to show off “finding” drones, when in fact it was tipped off by its own militia sources.

In Baghdad, the Iraqi Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi spoke out on Sunday. He “condemned attacks against Saudi Arabia that were launched from Iraq in a call with the Chairman of the Saudi Shura Council, his office said, as the Iraqi government continues its joint investigation with Iran,” Rudaw noted.

Halbousi is a Sunni politician, in contrast to the pro-Iranian Shi’ite politicians who make up the bulk of Iraq’s political class these days.

Like Lebanon, Iraq has chosen to divvy up political roles based on sectarian differences. Sunnis tend to get the Speaker role, the Prime Minister is a Shi’ite, and the President is Kurdish. Unsurprisingly, the President and Speaker roles are much weaker than the prime minister.

“The Parliament Speaker expressed his condemnation of the attacks that targeted the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, reiterating Iraq’s stance that it refuses the use of Iraqi soil or its airspace to threaten the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s security or that of any neighboring countries,” read a statement from the Speaker’s media office.

“This isn’t compatible with Iraq’s policy or its relations with its siblings or neighbors,” the statement added, according to Rudaw.

Joint investigation to take place

The attack on Saudi Arabia came from Iraq’s Maysan province. So far, the government has moved to replace a local official and has also claimed to have found the launcher involved in the drone attack.

“Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi removed the head of Maysan’s Operations Command and closed the Shalamcheh and al-Sheeb border crossings with Iran as a precaution.

On Sunday, the Security Media Cell announced the gradual re-opening of the crossings to travelers starting Sunday, while trade would continue at Shalamcheh on Monday and at al-Sheeb on Thursday,” Rudaw noted.

Now, a “joint investigation” is supposed to take place. It’s not clear which militia carried out the attack. Usually Kataib Hezbollah is behind high-profile attacks on neighboring countries.

It killed three American service members in Jordan in 2024, for instance. Several key militias are part of the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

“The IRI factions, namely Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, are currently under pressure to heed an Iraqi government deadline of September 30th to restrict arms to the state,” Rudaw noted over the weekend.

Some Iraqi politicians would like to see the militias reined in. “Iraqi President Nizar Amedi and Hikma Front leader Ammar al-Hakim reiterated the government position that Iraq should not be used as a launchpad against neighboring countries,” Rudaw added.

The big question for Iraq and Saudi Arabia is whether anyone will actually be held accountable.