Ruto versus experts: Questions as President mocks science on El Niño threat

What you need to know:

• Ruto questioned the shifting timelines for the heavy rains associated with the El Niño event.
• He expressed frustration that the expected onset of the rains had seemingly been pushed from one month to the next.

President William Ruto’s public frustration with Kenya’s weather forecasts has raised tensions between political leadership and the scientists responsible for predicting dangerous weather.

Dr Ruto on Thursday October 8 questioned the shifting timelines for the heavy rains associated with the El Niño event.

“Waiting for these rains involves guesswork. You don’t know when it will fall,” he said. “We are waiting for El Niño, but we don’t know when it will arrive.”

He was speaking at the Agriculture and Food Security Transformation Summit at Jamhuri Park in Nairobi.

He expressed frustration that the expected onset of the rains had seemingly been pushed from one month to the next.

“The people in charge told us it would be in August, but then it was pushed to September, now it is October,” he said.

This is not the first time Ruto has publicly challenged messaging on El Niño from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA). In October 2023, as Kenya braced for the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, he appeared to dismiss warnings of a potentially destructive El Niño, saying the forecast had changed.

“You recently heard talk that we would face an El Niño event that would cause widespread destruction,” he said, “but God has decreed there will be no El Niño after all, just heavy rainfall.”

The comments came amid public concern about possible flooding, displacement and property damage. The then KMSA Director, David Gikungu, apologised for the confusion surrounding the forecast but urged Kenyans to prepare for enhanced rainfall linked to El Niño.

“We apologise to Kenyans over the confusion,” he said, “but indeed we can say, let us prepare ourselves for enhanced rainfall for the El Niño phenomenon.”

The rains that followed were severe. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the death toll from the 2023/24 El Niño floods rose to at least 174 by December 20, 2023. More than half a million people were displaced, and riverine floods, flash floods, and landslides affected 38 of Kenya's 47 counties, with about 90 per cent of those affected in Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Wajir, Isiolo, and Meru. A March 2024 humanitarian brief reported more than 17,000 acres of farmland destroyed and over 13,400 livestock deaths.

Three years later, the question has resurfaced. When forecasts change, rainfall arrives later than expected or a climate phenomenon produces different impacts across regions, is the problem with the science, the way it is communicated, or the expectations placed on meteorologists to predict precisely what the weather will do?

"Forecasts inform decisions about public spending, infrastructure, agriculture, emergency services and the protection of communities living in flood-prone areas. If political statements leave the public uncertain about whether to trust scientific warnings, the consequences could extend well beyond the argument itself," said an expert who did not want to be named.

Speaking during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum, KMSA Acting Director Edward Muriuki cautioned against treating El Niño as an automatic guarantee of heavy rainfall in Kenya.

“The El Niño phenomenon refers to the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean,” he explained, “which can alter weather patterns across the world.” The resulting impacts vary depending on other climate drivers, regional conditions and the interaction of different atmospheric and oceanic systems.

Mr Muriuki said global forecasting models indicate a high probability of a strong El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) goes further. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts show a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, “potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950.”

WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach unprecedented levels in the final three months of the year.

“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” it said. “El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December.”

In an exclusive interview with Nation, Fred Njehu, a climate expert and Pan-African political strategist at Greenpeace Africa, said scientific assessments are based on scenarios and historical patterns that can change as conditions evolve.

“If you look at extreme weather events, the predictions are not normally 100 per cent accurate,” Mr Njehu said.

A forecast of enhanced rainfall does not mean every county will flood, he said, nor does a delay in onset mean the underlying outlook has stopped being relevant.

“The implication for Kenya is that uncertainty about the precise timing of rainfall,” he said, “should not automatically be treated as evidence that the broader warning has no value.”

Njehu said public institutions must be accountable but cautioned against turning forecast mistrust into public disputes.

“Rather than arguing over who is right or wrong, the focus should be on what the scientific evidence shows and how the country can prepare,” he said.

He said scientific institutions have a legal mandate to research and advise stakeholders on extreme-weather risks, while political leaders turn that advice into policy, funding and emergency preparedness.

“They are the ones who allocate resources, they are the ones who resource these scientific institutions. They also have the public trust,” he said. “Any sort of disjointed communication or action might have very dire consequences.”

As the debate over timing continues, disaster managers are focused on the OND season. David Samoei of the National Disaster Operations Centre, also speaking at the forum, said authorities have moved on from asking whether floods will occur.

“We are not discussing anymore whether there will be floods or not,” he said. “What we are looking at is what we need to do in the October-November-December season.”

The government says it has activated multi-agency coordination to assess risks and organise response. Authorities are also running simulations to test flood response and identify gaps, and a toll-free number is planned for people at risk. Such preparations require decisions before the timing and severity of a weather event are certain.

"Meteorological agencies, for their part, must explain changes in forecasts, communicate uncertainty and open their assessments to scrutiny," Mr Njehu said. “Scientific information can be difficult to simplify for audiences unfamiliar with technical terminology,” he said, “making dialogue between meteorologists, journalists, policymakers and political leaders important.”

Experts say strengthening these institutions requires sustained investment in skilled personnel, reliable data, modern technology and adequate funding.

Follow ourWhatsApp channel for breaking news updates and more stories like this.